| June 24, 2019 | View in browser |
|---|
A MESSAGE FROM UNBANKD:
Hey Unbankd lovers. We've decided to kick it up a notch.
Starting in July, we will be moving Unbankd from a free newsletter to a premium subscription to focus on better research, more analysis, and driving insights so you can make better decisions about the crypto market - in less time.
Get in now. If you sign up today for Unbankd Pro, we will give you 50% off the monthly cost or up to 60% off the yearly cost.
You won't get this deal again. Join Unbankd Pro today or miss out on this amazing offer.
JOIN UNBANKD PRO
Good morning! Thanks for reading. If you enjoy our newsletter, please share us with a friend and tell them they can subscribe here.
Today's top reads
- What happens after $10k $BTC?
- GitHub activity and the market
- From whales to the people
- Crypto tax crackdown
Market update
| COIN | PRICE | 7-DAY |
| BTC | $10,913.07 | + 17.33% |
| XRP | $0.464 | + 6.59% |
| ETH | $309.41 | + 13.32% |
| XLM | $0.127 | - 2.05% |
| EOS | $7.17 | + 0.83% |
1. What happens after $10k $BTC?
Bitcoin is on a tear. After a grueling one-and-a-half-year winter, it finally broke through the $10,000 psychological barrier. That's a significant feat considering the asset has only done that once before – back in 2017.
Here's what happened then:
- 19 days to $20,000. After crossing the $10k psych-barrier back on November 28, 2017, it only took bitcoin 19 days to fly to $20,000. That's a 100% gain in less than 3 weeks.
- Dominance dipped. As soon as bitcoin started to fly, dominance briefly picked up. However, it was short-lived. 30 days after the $10k milestone, bitcoin dominance had dropped from 54.7% to 43% - meaning, historically, that altseason comes next.
- Volume almost quadrupled. In a short 10 days, volume grew from $5 billion to just over $19 billion as bitcoin went for a sprint.
But it's 2019 and things are different. Here's what we know:
- Dominance is near two-year highs. Bitcoin's dominance is at 58.5% - the highest point since the peak of bitcoin's run in 2017.
- Volume crushes 2017. Bitcoin's trading volume already dwarfs 2017's peak suggesting higher liquidity and more active traders - likely institutions.
- Bitcoin Google searches aren't even close. Despite the healthy gains, bitcoin's Google searches have hardly made a blip on the map compared to 2017. This metric suggests retail traders haven't fully flooded into the industry yet.
Regardless, investors are bullish. Analyst Peter Brandt predicted earlier this week that bitcoin is aiming for $100,000. Fundstrat's Tom Lee told CNBC that pure FOMO could drive bitcoin to $20,000.
In short: Things are looking good. Keep an eye on the market in the near term - we doubt you'll be able to keep your eyes off it.
2. GitHub activity and the market
Evaluating crypto assets is a tough task. With little fundamentals to dive into, there's limited information available to traders besides price action.
However, some traders feel that GitHub activity, or rather, how active the project's development is, makes for a great indicator of progress and therefore has a positive impact on price.
So we looked into it. Here's the theory in numbers:
- 0.21 correlation. Over the last year, the number of GitHub commits for crypto projects vs. the project's return actually has a 0.21 positive correlation.
- But commit winners lost. Don't get too happy though, despite the positive correlation, the top 10 projects by number of commits in the past 12 months lost to the global market with an average return of -19.6%.
But outside of those numbers, traders should keep in mind it's a distorted reality. Projects that forked from other cryptocurrencies actually inflate the number of commits because they inherit all the code from the original project - without doing any unique development.
For the traders: While a dead project with zero development could show a red flag, GitHub activity really isn't a reliable tool for investments. Rather it should be regarded as a just another check off of the fundamentals checklist.
3. From whales to the people
Bitcoin is getting more decentralized. According to Kevin Rooke, bitcoin's rich list has shifted "from whales to the people" over the last year and a half.
In a chart titled "How Many Addresses Own Bitcoin?", Rooke revealed that from November 28, 2017, to June 21, 2019, all bitcoin economic classes increased except for addresses that hold over $100,000 worth of bitcoin and over $1,000,000 worth of bitcoin.
| Amount of BTC | Percent Change |
| $1+ | + 19% |
| $10+ | + 33% |
| $100+ | + 33% |
| $1,000+ | + 23% |
| $10,000+ | + 9% |
| $100,000+ | - 1% |
| $1,000,000+ | - 11% |
So what's going on? We can see this in one of two lights:
- The good: More people are getting involved in bitcoin and thus it's only getting more decentralized.
- The bad: Whales are selling out.
Take #2 with a grain of salt. Realistically, many with massive amounts of bitcoin have decentralized it amongst multiple addresses rather than holding it in one address for security reasons anyway. Not only that, but it's possible users are moving their funds off of exchanges to their very own private wallets.
The bigger picture: Zooming out, bitcoin addresses in total have grown more than 24% in the timeframe and that is nothing to scoff at. Whether or not it's new users? We don't know. But for the information available, it's a positive metric.
4. Crypto tax crackdown
The United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and Department of Justice (DOJ) are really itching for a cut of crypto profits.
Revealed by Bloomberg, the two agencies are starting to get more serious and are now using their document matching program to identify those who evaded taxes from crypto transactions. Allegedly, taxpayers have already been identified and will be receiving notices shortly.
While we know our responsible Unbankd readers have already filed their crypto taxes, here's a quick cheat sheet provided by CCN:
You need to report crypto income if you:
- Sold bitcoin (or any other crypto).
- Converted bitcoin to fiat currency.
- Used cryptocurrencies to pay for goods or services.
- Received free crypto through a fork or an airdrop.
Your transactions are not taxed if you:
- Bought bitcoin but never sold it.
- Gave crypto as a gift to a friend or family member, and the gift was less than $15,000.
- Purchased crypto with a Self-Directed IRA or Solo 401(k).
5. You should also know
6. Dead even on mining
From last week's poll, 50% of respondents claimed that they have mined cryptocurrencies before.
unbankd
303 5th Ave SE, Minneapolis, MN 55414
The above is not intended to be investment advice.
Copyright © 2019 Unbankd, All rights reserved.
If you don't absolutely love us, drop us.
