Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Why ETH will outperform BTC this year

CoinSheet #263

Feb 2

One kind word can warm three winter months.
— Japanese proverb

This letter is brought to you by myself and Perdix.

You’re probably following me on Twitter, but you’re not following him.

So go follow him.

1. Fees/cashflow

Ethereum generates a lot of fees itself, as a platform, and supports a variety of decentralized yield/fee-generating products in its ecosystem.

These products are mostly for trading tokens, called decentralized exchanges (DEXs). These are daily fees that are remitted/awarded directly to participants.

Yes, crypto has cashflow now.

https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F415e7e94-9974-4c49-b1e8-2c2b01e682c8_1420x799.jpeg — **Daily fees. Not annual**

2. High turnover

On average the fee of trading on DEXs is 15-35bps per transaction, not including the cost of going through Ethereum’s pipes which is another fee layer depending on congestion.

Hence Uniswap is averaging nearly $1bn in turnover daily. The fees go directly to liquidity providers (crypto market makers) who populate the books. It’s not your cabbies playing this. It’s people who work(ed) at Jane St, Jump Trading, Renaissances etc - but also early crypto whales.

Owner of Uniswap (UNI, diluted 19bn market cap) and Sushiswap (SUSHI, diluted ~$2.5bn) tokens gets a % of fee revenue sharing. Try to put a ratio on that and the valuation seems reasonable.

https://duneanalytics.com/hagaetc/dex-metrics

3. DEX volume

DEX volume has been exploding with the bubble becoming more mainstream. Breaching $55bn monthly turnover.

4. Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

Decentralized Finance (DeFi), under which these DEXs fall, has been adding active users in a rapid pace. From nothing to nearly 1.2mm unique addresses to this year.

Same user could own different addresses and this data is not a 1:1 correspondence to number of user, but does show some activity

https://duneanalytics.com/rchen8/defi-users-over-time

5. DeFi AUM

DeFi AUM’s (assets under management) meteoric rise - from sub-1bn beginning of 2010 to now reaching over $30bn.

Yes, Ethereum did appreciate over 10x+ from its March bottom so keep that in mind.

6. DeFi Lending Protocols

$14bn+ deposited into lending DeFi protocols. This process unlocks liquidity via a collateralized loan (conventionally, overcollateralized 3x for 7% APR) for long-term holders of ETH and tokens who don’t want to sell.

User receives stable dollar tokens to do participate in more “gambling stuff.”

https://duneanalytics.com/hagaetc/lending

7. Ethereum’s hashrate

Ethereum’s own hashrate, an indicator of total amount of computing power put towards securing the system and unlocking new Ethereum inflation as reward for mining, has breached its all time high.

For reference, the AMD Radeon RX 480 has been the standard, costs about $200 if you can find one, outputs 25Mh/s.

For scale, 12.5mm RX 480s gives the current 313 Th/s computing power - implying a CAPEX of at least 2.5bn in equipment alone mining ETH, not counting operational expenditures.

8. Address activity

Ethereum’s active daily address has been exploding.

https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=ETH&m=addresses.ActiveCount

9. ETH leaving exchanges

ETH are rapidly leaving exchanges, implying accumulation or usage in DeFi and other activities.

10. Technicals

When most people (with capital) believe that the VALUE of something will go up, and the technicals look good, the price usually follows.

It doesn’t hurt when the meme lines look good are in full effect.

As of writing this, ETH/USD is 20 minutes away from closing its all-time high daily candle.

Macro weekly ETH/USD look good

Golden cross on ETH/BTC

Macro weekly ETH/BTC chart looks good too, will retesting 200 Weekly SMA

At the end of the day, if BTC looks good, ETH will look good too.

11. ETH futures launch in less than a week

CME Group to is launching ETH Futures on February 8, 2021.

To be honest, I don’t yet know if this is necessarily bullish. Last time they launched BTC futures, they popped the bubble and bragged about it.

From an excerpt from CoinDesk:

Christopher Giancarlo, who left the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) at the end of his five-year term as chairman in April, told CoinDesk in an interview:

“One of the untold stories of the past few years is that the CFTC, the Treasury, the SEC and the [National Economic Council] director at the time, Gary Cohn, believed that the launch of bitcoin futures would have the impact of popping the bitcoin bubble. And it worked.”

If you’re intersested in this, you can read this letter by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

The end

Anyways, that’s all for now.

Leave a comment on anything you’d like us to expand on (DeFi, the bear case, etc… whatever you want).

See you later space Cowboy

Dmitriy & Perdix

If you liked this post from CoinSheet, why not share it?

Diem surpasses 50M transactions / Chainalysis darknet report / KPMG retires as auditor

Inside.com

Part of Network

February 02, 2021

Presented by

Bitcoin	$35,472	7 day: +10.2%
Ethereum	$1,489	7 day: +12%
All crypto	$1.06T	7 day: +11%
Bitcoin dominance	62.2%	7 day: -0.7%

Prices as of 2:50 p.m. EST

A Testnet

The testnet for Diem — formerly Libra by Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) — has surpassed 50M transactions. Diem is a suite of fiat-pegged stablecoins — its largest cryptocurrency will be convertible on a 1:1 basis with USD. Its low-fee, scalable, and rapid settlement technology is built by the Diem Association, whose members include Coinbase and Uber.

More:

Diem boasts 221,000 individual addresses within its sandbox. One address holds over 100 million LBR ⏤ the tokens that run on Diem ⏤ which would be worth $100M if the cryptocurrency was live.
Originally designed to be the world's largest stablecoin, western regulations have delayed the Diem timeline well behind China's central bank digital currency (CBDC).
The Diem testnet operates at an average of three transactions per second throughput.

Decrypt

Chainalysis reports that the U.S. and western Europe have the most darknet vendors, while eastern Europe and China lead in money laundering.

Darknet users transacted $1.7B last year.
The report notes that Hydra, a Russian marketplace, is at the center of darknet market activities and a "big driver" of eastern Europe's crypto crime landscape. Russian-speaking countries operate the vast majority of darknet markets globally.
Hydra accounted for over 75% of darknet market revenue worldwide in 2020.
Hydra uses an "Uber-like system for assigning drug deliveries to anonymous couriers, who drop off their packages in out-of-the-way, hidden public locations, commonly referred to as 'drops,' which are then shared with the buyers. That way, no physical exchange is made, and unlike with traditional darknet markets, vendors don't need to risk using the postal system."
Chainalysis notes Hydra's plan to raise approximately $146M via an ICO for a new service, "Eternos."
Chainalysis concluded its report with the ten largest countries in terms of crypto transaction volume flowing through darknet markets, with Russia, the U.S, and Ukraine leading the list.

Chainalysis

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Steven Seagal

The SEC charged perpetrators of the now-defunct Bitcoiin2Gen project with duping investors out of $11.4M.

On Feb. 1, the SEC charged the perpetrators of the 2018 scam, filing a complaint in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York and naming as defendants Bitcoiin2Gen's founder Kristijan Krstic, its U.S. promoter John DeMarr, and DeMarr's associate Robin Enos.
According to the SEC's filing, the defendants dishonestly influenced investors to purchase digital asset securities by showcasing Hollywood actor Steven Seagal as a brand ambassador in early 2018.
The SEC complaint also alleges Krstic and DeMarr promoted B2G unregistered ICOs as illegal securities with Enos' assistance in January 2018.
Enos is facing criminal charges by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of New York and the Dept. of Justice.
Steven Seagal reportedly settled charges with the SEC in February 2020 and was not named in Monday's suit.

Coindesk

KPMG Satellite Office

KPMG has resigned as Triterras' (NASDAQ:TRIT) auditor after hedge fund manager Phase 2 Partners' scathing report.

The Singapore-based fintech company went public last year by merging with a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC).
KPMG's resignation occurred less than a week after Phase 2 Partners, a U.S. hedge fund, published a negative report claiming that at least 75% of transactions on Triterras' platform could be traced back to executives at the company.
Triterras' shares have fallen from roughly $11 to $6.84 since the report was published, closing Monday with a market capitalization of $678M.

The Block Crypto

Barry Silbert's Grayscale Investments re-opened its Ethereum Trust (OTCQX:ETHE) to accredited investors after suspending private placements in December 2020.

Grayscale Investments tweeted that it will resume Ethereum Trust private placements on Jan. 29. Grayscale closed private placements late last year for five of its trusts.
Grayscale offers private placements on a periodic basis throughout the year, and is now open to accredited investors on a daily subscription.
According to the company, investment into Grayscale's products during 2020 exceeded $5.7B ⏤ more than four times the cumulative inflow into its products from inception through December 2019.

Coindesk

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In a blog post published on Sunday, Mark Cuban wrote, "the New Generation that has grown up in a digital world has known their entire lives that what has been of greatest value to them has been digital." Cuban supports the notion that "blockchain driven assets have now legitimately become stores of value."
Reuters wrote about Elon Musk's Clubhouse premiere late Sunday night. Musk said he is a "supporter of bitcoin" and while admitting he "was a little slow on the uptake," he now believes "bitcoin is on the verge of getting broad acceptance by conventional finance people."
Newly elected U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) is planning to launch a financial innovation caucus "as a springboard to educate members of the U.S. Senate and their staff about bitcoin."
Coinbase has chosen NASDAQ as the exchange for its upcoming direct listing. Based on its recent secondary offering listing on NASDAQ Private Market, shares are trading at an implied valuation of $50B.
Switzerland's Sygnum Bank has tokenized the first assets under the country's new DLT regulations by tokenizing a range of premium investible wines.
The Blockchain Association has seen a substantial increase in its membership and has expanded its policy portfolio beyond securities law toward shaping the debate on self-hosted wallets, stablecoin policy, tax policy, custody, and privacy.
21 Shares is launching the world's first Polkadot-based exchange-traded product (ETP) on Switzerland's SIX Exchange.
The Central Bank of the Philippines has issued new guidelines for its domestic digital currency industry, including requirements for operating licenses, minimum capital for service providers, and stringent anti-money laundering (AML) programs.
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Curated by Associated Press fanboy, eye-strained news terminal watcher, and bitcoin follower since $1, Aaron Wise. Temporarily listening to news squawk boxes in Florida while awaiting the construction of cryptopia.

Editor

Charlotte Hayes-Clemens is an editor and writer based in Vancouver. She has dabbled in both the fiction and non-fiction world, having worked at HarperCollins Publishers and more recently as a writing coach for new and self-published authors. Proper semi-colon usage is her hill to die on.

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