Bulls want bitcoin back above $80,000. Macro says not so fast. Bitcoin pulled back to $76,500 after twice being rejected at $80K, and the economic data explains why: the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to an all-time low of 49.8 this month, with one-year inflation expectations surging to 4.8% from 3.8% — the kind of reading the Fed cannot ignore. The FOMC meeting begins today, with a decision tomorrow. A 98% probability of a hold is priced in; what markets are actually watching is the tone of Powell’s press conference.
Consumer sentiment hit an all-time low. Inflation expectations surged. FOMC meets today.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a record low of 49.8 in April, driven largely by inflation pressure tied to the Iran conflict. One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8% from 3.8% — the sharpest single-month surge since 2021 — while the 5–10-year gauge rose to 3.5%, its highest since October 2025. The Fed’s core mandate is to keep long-run expectations anchored; data like this makes that mandate harder to credibly execute and complicates any dovish pivot. The FOMC starts today. A rate hold is a near-certainty at 98% probability per CME FedWatch; what actually moves markets will be Powell’s press conference tone tomorrow — specifically whether he signals any willingness to cut in H2 despite elevated inflation expectations. A dovish lean would likely send BTC straight at $80,000.
The Coinbase premium flipped negative. BTC is climbing on thin volume. Both matter.
Two warning signs are flashing under bitcoin’s recovery. The Coinbase Premium Index has turned negative, signalling that U.S. spot demand — historically the most institutional and conviction-driven — is weakening relative to offshore exchanges. 10x Research’s Markus Thielen separately flags that BTC is climbing on thin volume with a lack of conviction from large-money participants, leaving the rally vulnerable to macro shocks. Derivatives are also cooling: open interest, volume, and liquidations all declined Tuesday, with put options now trading at a premium over calls in both BTC and ETH. The bull structural case hasn’t changed — $6.4B in fresh stablecoin inflows to Binance, 47 days of negative funding paying longs, Hyperliquid whale longs at multi-month highs — but the market is waiting on Powell to supply conviction.
Strategy bought more BTC. Tom Lee’s firm is buying ETH as a “wartime store of value.”
Strategy added another 3,273 BTC last week, bringing its total to 818,334 BTC purchased for approximately $62 billion at an average price of $75,537 — now modestly in profit at current prices. Separately, BitMine disclosed a $236 million ETH purchase, with Tom Lee’s firm arguing Ethereum is the best positioned asset as a “wartime store of value” given its stablecoin infrastructure role and on-chain activity levels. BitMine has now accumulated more than five million ETH in ten months. The concurrent buying across BTC and ETH from corporate treasuries suggests institutional appetite hasn’t dimmed even as retail sentiment hits record lows — a divergence that historically resolves in favor of the institutional direction.
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