Bitcoin is holding near $85,935 this morning, consolidating just below the January high of $98,000 that analysts have identified as the next meaningful resistance. Monday’s rally was validated by the highest-quality signal you can get: spot ETFs pulled in $998.95 million — the ninth-largest single-day inflow ever and the most since bitcoin hit its all-time high in October. BTC has now reclaimed all of its long-term moving averages after 300 days below them. In derivatives, a $3.2 million butterfly options trade made yesterday bets on a price near $95,000 by Halloween. And Binance just bought $100 million of Circle shares in a five-year USDC deal — announced the same day Bloomberg reported a fresh DOJ sanctions probe into the exchange. Stay alert.
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2Blockworks Analytics, Zcash: Transactions, October 6, 2024–June 28, 2026.
3As of September 18, 2026. Subject to change.
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What matters today
Markets
Story 1 of 3
A $3.2 million bitcoin butterfly trade bets on $95,000 by the end of October
The most notable options trade of the past 24 hours was a “long call butterfly” executed in five blocks on Deribit, each consisting of 1,000 long calls at $90,000, 2,000 short calls at $95,000 and 1,000 long calls at $100,000 for the Oct. 30 expiry. The net cost was $3.17 million. The strategy earns the most if bitcoin settles near $95,000 at expiry — meaning the trader is positioning for a roughly $10,000 move from current levels in six weeks — and has a positive payoff anywhere between $90,000 and $100,000, with the $3.17M at risk outside that range. It is not a lone signal: bitcoin’s daily chart shows little historical resistance between $85,000 and $98,000 — the January high — and short-term risk reversals have flipped aggressively in favor of calls, per Laser Digital. Coinbase Markets puts one-standard-deviation expected swings this week at 8.9% for XRP, 8.0% for SOL, 6.9% for ETH and 5.0% for BTC.
Spot bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $1 billion on Monday — the 9th largest inflow ever
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs drew $998.95 million on Monday, their largest single-day inflow since October 6, 2025 — the day bitcoin hit its record high of $126,200 — and the ninth-largest in the products’ history. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $381.37 million, followed by Ark’s ARKB at $289.12 million and Fidelity’s FBTC at $238.84 million. The inflow reads as a direct vote of confidence from institutions: it came just days after bitcoin absorbed a failed Senate Clarity Act vote and a Fed rate hike without breaking down. Month-to-date flows now stand at $1.31 billion following August’s $3.52 billion. Year-to-date flows remain $450 million in the red, so bulls still have work to do to recover the losses from June’s $4.51 billion outflow month.
Binance buys $100 million Circle stake in a five-year USDC deal — and gets a new DOJ probe the same day
Binance acquired 1.24 million Circle Class A shares at $80.84 each in a private placement that closed September 17, paying $100 million for a stake in the USDC issuer at a slight discount to market. Under a five-year expanded partnership, Circle will pay Binance a monthly incentive fee tied to USDC held through Circle’s wallet infrastructure, while Binance will promote USDC on its platform. Binance cannot sell or hedge the shares for two years but retains voting rights. The deal landed on the same day Bloomberg reported that U.S. federal prosecutors have opened a new sanctions-related investigation into Binance — a separate matter from the 2023 guilty plea that saw founder Changpeng Zhao serve a four-month sentence. The timing adds legal uncertainty to a partnership that otherwise signals USDC’s growing dominance over USDT on the world’s largest exchange.
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