Bitcoin is up 0.90% to $84,327 this morning — and quietly doing something remarkable. While gold fell nearly 4% on Monday as the Dollar Index surged above 101 on 2007-high yields, bitcoin slipped just 1% before bouncing back. Over the full quarter it has gained more than 40%, making it the world’s best-performing major asset. The chart tells a compelling structural story: Fidelity Investments’ director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, says bitcoin has confirmed a double-bottom breakout above $80,000 — a pattern that historically targets $100,000. The $90K, $95K and $100K call options on Deribit hold a combined $6.57 billion in open interest. With two calendar days left in September, bitcoin is also on track to break a 13-year streak of negative Septembers. Stay alert.
Bitcoin beats gold — and a Fidelity analyst says $100,000 is in play
As longer-duration Treasury yields hit 2007 highs and the Dollar Index surged above 101 on Monday, gold fell nearly 4% — its worst single-day drop of the quarter. Bitcoin slipped just 1% in the same session before recovering to $84,000. Over the full quarter it has gained more than 40%, making it the world’s best-performing major asset by a wide margin. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments’ director of global macro, says bitcoin has confirmed a “double-bottom breakout” above $80,000, a chart pattern that confirms a bullish trend reversal and historically targets $100,000 — using lows of $60,033 and $57,742 set earlier this year, with the middle peak near $82,800 acting as the neckline. Options traders appear aligned: the $90K, $95K and $100K call strikes on Deribit hold a combined $6.57 billion in open interest, with $90K calls leading at $2.45 billion.
Bitcoin rebounds above $84,000 as Treasury yields steady
Bitcoin pulled back to $82,500 on Monday before recovering above $84,000 overnight as Treasury yields steadied after the 10-year briefly touched 5.2%. Spot bitcoin ETFs drew $30 million in inflows Tuesday, a modest but positive reading after last week’s $2.84 billion six-day streak. The $82,813 support level — the former resistance that flipped on September 21 — held, reinforcing the bullish structure. Aave led DeFi higher with a 7% gain as the broader market shrugged off the continued bond selloff, while AAVE open interest rose to a record $1.4 billion. U.S.–Iran indirect talks with mediators resumed on Monday, with Middle East crude exports climbing to their highest level since the conflict began — a constructive sign for oil supply and by extension for inflation expectations.
Bitcoin is about to shatter a 13-year September losing streak
Since 2013, every time bitcoin has posted a positive August, it has finished September in the red — a streak that has held through bull and bear markets alike. With two calendar days remaining, bitcoin is up approximately 2% for September, on track to break that pattern and deliver three consecutive months of gains from July through September. A positive close would also be the first positive September since 2023. Analysts note the streak’s persistence has made September a self-fulfilling sell signal for some traders, meaning a clean break above it could trigger short-covering. The quarter itself is already bitcoin’s best since Q4 2024 at over 40% gains, and a positive September close would give the bull case one more historical tailwind heading into Q4 — historically bitcoin’s strongest quarter.
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