Rising yields used to hurt bitcoin. Not anymore!

Rising bond yields are supposed to hurt bitcoin. Markets stopped believing that. The yen is surging — and for now it's helping. Plus: bitcoin's golden cross is almost here, and USDT may be the real tell. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Thursday, September 3, 2026   Bitcoin is bouncing back above $77,700 this morning as the Dollar Index tests its 200-day moving average and the yen strengthens sharply across the board. The old playbook said rising bond yields drag the dollar up and crypto down — but the dollar has barely moved even as the 10-year Treasury hit its highest since October 2023. Markets appear to be reading high yields as fiscal distress rather than economic strength, which flips the whole framework for bitcoin bulls. The Clarity Act cloture vote is now confirmed for September 15, one day before the Fed decision. Stay alert. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $77,911 +1.72% ETH $2,407 +1.25% SOL $100.81 +3.21% XRP $1.37 +4.21% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 FX has stopped reading bond yields the old way. Bitcoin should too. The standard take was simple: when bond yields rise, the dollar strengthens and bitcoin suffers. But the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed 58 basis points this year to 4.81% — its highest since October 2023 — and the Dollar Index has risen just 0.9%. Germany’s yields rose less than the U.S., Japan’s yields surged 90 basis points yet the yen hit four-decade lows rather than strengthening. The FX market appears to be reading high yields not as economic strength but as fiscal distress — a warning sign, not an invitation to hold dollars. If that re-read is correct, the old argument against bitcoin — that yield-paying bonds are superior to zero-yield hard assets — inverts: in a world where rising yields signal fiscal trouble, the things governments can’t print become more attractive. SEC Chairman Atkins has also confirmed the Senate will hold a Clarity Act cloture vote on September 15, one day before the Fed’s rate decision. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 The yen is surging and it’s helping bitcoin — for now. The dollar-yen pair has dropped 1.4% to 156.40 Thursday, extending Wednesday’s 0.9% move, as the Bank of Japan signals it may raise rates from 1% to 1.25% at its September 18 meeting. The yen’s strength is dragging the Dollar Index down 0.4% to 99.22, right at its 200-day moving average — a level traders worldwide watch closely, and a break below it could trigger more pronounced dollar selling. For now, the weaker dollar is supporting bitcoin and gold, both of which are trading higher despite continued oil above $90. The risk is a disorderly yen surge: if the yen strengthens too fast, carry trades unwind, foreign investors who bought Japanese stocks on the back of a weak yen may sell, and the August 2024 playbook — when a BoJ hike sent bitcoin down 20% in days — could repeat. Read more → Markets   Story 3 of 3 Bitcoin’s golden cross is coming. USDT may be the real signal this time. Bitcoin is approaching a golden cross — when the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day — the most widely watched long-term bullish signal in markets. The record is mixed: across 12 occurrences since 2012, the average three-month gain was 24.9%, but only three of the twelve lasted a full year without being reversed. What’s different this time is the corroborating signal from USDT dominance — the share of the total crypto market held in Tether — which is itself approaching a death cross, with its 50-day average set to fall below its 200-day. Falling USDT dominance means capital is rotating out of the dollar-equivalent safe haven and into crypto — and historically, that rotation has accompanied bitcoin’s most durable rallies. Taken together, bitcoin’s golden cross and USDT’s death cross point in the same direction. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

Did Tether illegally freeze $42M?

Plaintiffs say the freeze came months before U.S. authorities had a warrant. Plus: Bart Simpson is back on the bitcoin chart, and the SEC moves on 24/7 trading. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Wednesday, September 2, 2026 Tether sued over $42.4 million USDT freeze allegedly made months before U.S. warrant Two Thai businessmen are suing Tether in the Southern District of New York, alleging the stablecoin issuer froze 42.4 million USDT across 10 Ethereum addresses on Oct. 30, 2025 — more than three months before U.S. authorities obtained a seizure warrant in February. They say they acquired the USDT through secondary-market transactions and had no direct relationship with Tether, raising a question the case may ultimately force courts to answer: can Tether freeze tokens in private wallets based on an informal law-enforcement request, before any legal process has been issued? They want the tokens unfrozen, damages, and any interest Tether earned on reserves backing the frozen funds. 2-minute read → Markets The Bart Simpson pattern is back as bitcoin and XRP prices pull back Bitcoin surged from $64,420 on Aug. 19 to nearly $80,700 on Aug. 25, then pulled back to around $76,500 — a trajectory that, on a price chart, looks unmistakably like Bart Simpson's spiked hairline. The three-phase pattern (spike, flat range, snap back) was first coined in 2015 and signals big holders distributing into retail buying. Mati Greenspan of Quantum Economics says it only counts as a true Bart if the pullback hits 20%, and he doubts that happens — but Frank Hepworth of New Market Trading is less sanguine, warning bitcoin could slide to $70,000 or even $58,000, and XRP to $0.46, if selling intensifies. 3-minute read → Policy SEC proposes transfer agent rule, sets event to figure out round-the-clock U.S. trading The SEC announced the agenda for its Sept. 17 roundtable on 24/7 U.S. securities trading — bringing NYSE, Nasdaq, Citadel, DTCC, Robinhood and others to the table — and separately proposed a rule that would formally recognize blockchain technology in the role of transfer agents for the first time. The transfer-agent rule, open for 60-day comment, would allow blockchains as official records of securities transactions and asks a question central to the tokenization era: should wallet addresses replace names and physical addresses as the required identifiers for securityholders? 2-minute read → Know someone who should be reading this? Share this newsletter See all of CoinDesk’s newsletters    CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York,NY,10011,USA, Unsubscribe Manage Preferences   Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.

The Fed can't open shipping lanes by raising rates

Iran strikes drove oil above $93 and crypto sharply lower. Analysts say a Fed rate hike now would be a mistake. XRP ETFs are pulling in money anyway. And the SEC is working on 24-hour U.S. trading. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Wednesday, September 2, 2026   U.S. airstrikes on Iran overnight pushed oil above $93 a barrel, reviving fears that energy-driven inflation could push the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its September 16 meeting — currently priced at a 68% probability on CME FedWatch. Bitcoin is down roughly 2% to near $76,600, ETH and SOL are off more than 3%, and XRP has dropped more than 4%. But a growing cohort of economists argue the Fed would be making a mistake: hiking rates cannot put more oil on the market, and tightening into a supply shock does lasting damage to an economy that doesn’t need it. Bitcoin, for its part, is showing relative resilience — outperforming gold, which is also lower today, while the Ichimoku cloud has flipped bearish on the hourly chart for the first time since mid-August. The Fed decision on September 16 is now the market’s central event. Stay alert. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $76,608 −1.87% ETH $2,378 −3.27% SOL $97.83 −4.33% XRP $1.32 −4.34% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 A Fed rate hike now would be a mistake, analysts say, as bitcoin, gold and stocks all fall. Bitcoin has pulled back to near $76,600 (−1.87%), gold is lower, and equities are falling as renewed U.S. airstrikes on Iran pushed oil futures past $93 a barrel — up 9% on the week — and stoked fears that the Federal Reserve will respond to the resulting inflation pressure with a rate hike at its September 16 meeting. The CME FedWatch tool now puts the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at 68%. A growing group of economists argues that the market is drawing the wrong conclusion. The oil price rise is an energy supply shock caused by a geopolitical conflict, not a sign of an overheating economy. WTI crude climbed from $70 at the start of July to above $90 on supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict. James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus, argued on X that monetary policy should not mechanically react to a jump in headline inflation driven by an oil shock — describing it as “a growth shock dressed up as inflation” and calling a rate hike “policy error masquerading as prudence.” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi made the same case in a July CNN interview: “Monetary policy 101 says when there is a supply shock, don’t respond.” The argument matters because higher rates cannot open shipping lanes or add oil to the market — but they can tighten credit, slow the economy and amplify the damage of the original supply shock. Bitcoin’s relative performance this morning is notable: it has held up better than gold and significantly better than Ethereum (−3.27%), Solana (−4.33%) and XRP (−4.34%). BTC’s Ichimoku cloud has flipped bearish on the hourly chart for the first time since mid-August. Liz Truss, the former UK Prime Minister who triggered a bond crisis in 2022 with sudden fiscal expansion, has warned that the global bond rout could force emergency spending cuts in the UK. The Sept. 16 Fed decision now anchors the entire market’s direction of travel. Read more → Policy   Story 2 of 3 The SEC just proposed a blockchain-era transfer agent rule and is planning for 24-hour U.S. stock trading. The SEC issued two significant announcements Tuesday evening that together sketch the direction of travel for market structure under Chairman Paul Atkins. The first was a proposed rule to modernize the regulations governing transfer agents — firms that track the changing ownership of securities — to explicitly incorporate blockchain technology. Transfer agents have always been the plumbing of securities markets, maintaining records of who owns what. The rise of onchain transactions, which settle instantly and transparently on a public ledger, has put the traditional model under pressure. The proposed rule would allow blockchains to serve as official records of securities ownership and transactions — a significant step toward legitimizing tokenized securities at the regulatory level. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce flagged a question that is central to crypto’s interest in the rule: whether holders should continue to be required to provide physical addresses to transfer agents, or whether digital wallet addresses should suffice instead. The rule is open for 60-day public comment. Separately, the SEC confirmed the agenda for its September 17 roundtable on 24-hour trading. The panel will include NYSE, Nasdaq, State Street, Citadel Securities, Cboe, DTCC and Robinhood, among others. The crypto industry already operates around the clock; if U.S. equities move in the same direction, crypto broker-dealers may face new surveillance requirements and compliance obligations that emerge from the SEC’s process. The session will examine overnight surveillance, closing-price practices, trade clearing and settlement mechanics for a continuous system. Bullish, parent company of CoinDesk, recently acquired transfer agent Equiniti for $4.2 billion — a deal that takes on additional context given the SEC’s proposed rule modernizing the very role Equiniti performs. Read more → Markets   Story 3 of 3 XRP ETFs have attracted $170 million over 11 straight sessions. Goldman Sachs tops the institutional holder list. U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds have recorded positive inflows for eleven consecutive trading sessions, pulling in a combined $170 million during the streak and lifting cumulative net inflows since their November launch to approximately $1.68 billion, according to SoSoValue data. Tuesday’s contribution was $14.38 million, led by Franklin Templeton’s XRP fund at $6.63 million and Grayscale at $4.72 million. The streak has persisted through a volatile stretch: XRP traded around $1.32 Wednesday morning, down from roughly $1.45 at its late-August peak but still well above the $1 level it was trading near in mid-August before the rally began. Q2 13F regulatory filings, which disclose U.S.-listed fund positions held as of June 30, show Goldman Sachs as the largest disclosed institutional holder of XRP ETFs with approximately $87.4 million in exposure, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. Jane Street followed with $16.6 million and Millennium Management with $16.2 million. The nature of those holdings matters: Goldman’s position likely reflects market-making activity, facilitation of client orders from wealth management accounts and basis trading rather than a unified directional bet on XRP — a nuance CoinDesk made the same distinction about with Goldman’s bitcoin ETF holdings in 2025. Investment advisers were by far the largest category of reported XRP ETF holders, accounting for about $120 million of the $183 million disclosed, with their holdings rising around $90 million during the quarter. For context on scale: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $2.26 billion over just six late-August sessions — more than XRP ETFs have collected since launching. CME’s share of XRP futures has also been growing: outstanding XRP futures positions outside CME fell by more than 500 million tokens over the past two weeks while CME exposure climbed about 36% as XRP rallied toward $1.40 — a structural shift toward regulated, institutional-grade market access for the token. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences