The rally's looking fragile — here's what the data shows

Bitcoin's six-day win streak is over. The Coinbase Premium has been negative for 50 straight days. But ETFs drew $265M on Monday — the most in a month. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Tuesday, July 7, 2026   Bitcoin snapped its six-day winning streak on Tuesday, and the data behind the rally was already raising doubts. The Coinbase Premium — the gap between BTC’s price on Coinbase versus Binance — has been negative for fifty straight days, the longest such streak on record. That’s a signal of persistently weak U.S. demand. Japan’s 10-year yield surged to a 30-year high of 2.85%, lifting borrowing costs in the U.S., U.K. and Germany and creating a fresh headwind. The one bright spot: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $265.69 million on Monday — the largest single-day inflow in over a month — and ether ETFs added $20.66 million. It’s an early signal. But until IBIT sustains inflows, the institutional bid remains structurally unproven. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $63,343 +1.42% ETH $1,672 +1.80% SOL $83.20 +0.96% XRP $1.14 −0.35% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 2 Bitcoin’s July gains may be fleeting as U.S. demand stays weak. Bitcoin ended its six-day winning streak — the longest since March — on Tuesday, and the gains looked fragile even before the reversal. The Coinbase Premium, which tracks the spread between BTC’s price on Coinbase versus Binance, has been negative for fifty consecutive days according to Coinglass — meaning for close to two months, BTC has been cheaper on the U.S.’s dominant retail exchange than on its globally dominant rival. The streak is the longest on record and reflects persistently weak demand from the world’s largest economy, a message echoed by eight consecutive weeks of net outflows from U.S. spot ETFs. Bitfinex analysts say that until IBIT itself flips back to sustained inflows, the structural institutional bid remains unproven. A fresh headwind arrived Tuesday morning: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield surged to a 30-year high of 2.85%, lifting borrowing costs in the U.S., U.K. and Germany in sympathy. Rising Japanese yields have preceded risk-off episodes in crypto before — most notably during the August 2024 yen carry-trade unwind — and the market is sensitive to the signal. On the macro data front, Iran fired missiles at two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil prices by more than 1% and reviving supply disruption concerns that had briefly abated. QCP Capital says the near-term backdrop remains constructive if ETF inflows continue, and a decisive reclaim of $64,000 would ease concerns about Strategy. The combined market cap of USDT and USDC has declined from $268 billion to $257 billion over two months — net capital outflow from the crypto ecosystem rather than recycling back into risk assets. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 2 Bitcoin and ether ETFs drew inflows on Monday — the largest daily BTC haul in over a month. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $265.69 million on Monday — the largest single-day inflow in over a month and only the second positive session in three after July 2 broke a long run of outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT absorbed $209.40 million, ARKB took in $32.98 million, and Grayscale’s mini BTC fund added $42.25 million. GBTC shed $44.45 million, the only fund in the red. Ether ETFs added $20.66 million on the same day, led by BlackRock’s ETHA at $23.29 million. The daily turn has not repaired the weekly picture: spot bitcoin ETFs still lost a net $526.6 million over the shortened July 4th holiday week — an eighth consecutive week of negative flows. Total bitcoin ETF assets climbed back to $77.32 billion from a June 30 low of $70.95 billion, helped by both the price recovery and the returning bid. USDT’s market dominance rate also slipped from a four-year high of 9.35% last month to 8.54% — a signal of returning risk appetite, since falling USDT dominance typically reflects capital rotating back into risk assets rather than parking in the safe-haven stablecoin. Bitcoin traded near $63,200 as Tuesday’s session opened. Read more → Exchange Review, supported by Gate CEX volumes drop to lowest since September 2024 as RWA perps hit record high Combined spot and derivatives trading on centralized exchanges fell to $4.41T in May, the weakest month since September 2024, as RWA perpetual futures volumes bucked the trend to hit an all-time high. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

Saylor buys high and sells low (in one month)

Saylor bought high, sold low, and booked an $8.3B Q2 loss. Bitcoin touched $63,900 then reversed. And CEX volumes hit a 10-month low — except RWA perps. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Monday, July 6, 2026 One month that shook the market: Saylor's struggles over bitcoin strategy yields big loss Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for $216 million Monday — days after buying 3,657 BTC at significantly higher prices — leaving a net gain of just 69 bitcoin despite $20 million in additional capital deployed, at an implied cost of over $289,000 per coin. The company also disclosed an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on bitcoin holdings for Q2. JPMorgan warned Strategy's shift to selective bitcoin sales has introduced an "avoidable" two-way flow risk to the market, and that the company would need two to three years of dividend coverage in reserve before investors feel confident it won't need to keep selling. Annual preferred stock dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled to $1.2 billion while the USD reserve has fallen 38% this year. Read more → Markets Bitcoin pops to $63,900 then reverses as week begins Bitcoin touched $63,882 overnight before retreating to $62,900 after Strategy's sale news hit. Thursday's soft jobs report — 57,000 positions added in June — had lifted crypto heading into the weekend by reducing Fed rate hike odds, but Monday's Strategy disclosure reversed most of that gain. AI stocks continue to absorb speculative capital: Nvidia was up 6.2% on the session while MSTR fell 8.2% and fellow bitcoin treasury companies dropped 4–6%. The Nasdaq is on track for another record; bitcoin is not. Read live updates → Exchange Review, supported by Gate CEX volumes drop to lowest since September 2024 as RWA perps hit record high Combined spot and derivatives trading on centralized exchanges fell to $4.41T in May — the lowest since September 2024 — while RWA perpetual futures rose 10.4% to a new all-time high of $211B. Know someone who should be reading this? Share this newsletter See all of CoinDesk’s newsletters    CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York,NY,10011,USA, Unsubscribe Manage Preferences   Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.

👀 Inflation breakevens just gave bitcoin bulls a signal

Bitcoin had its best week since March. Inflation breakevens are the bullish signal to watch. BTC hit $63,900 then reversed. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 — with a warning from history. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Monday, July 6, 2026   Bitcoin had its best week since March, rising nearly 7% through July 5 as the soft NFP print validated the Warsh pivot and the dollar softened. The macro underpinning is firming: the U.S. two-year inflation breakeven has dropped below 2% — the Fed’s own target — for the first time since 2024. That’s the bond market saying inflation is expected to fall below the threshold that justifies rate hikes. The next confirm-or-deny moment is July 14 CPI. Overnight, BTC touched $63,900 then pulled back to around $62,900 as capital rotated back into memory and semiconductor stocks in premarket. And SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 tomorrow — a milestone the history books say to treat carefully. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $62,899 +0.48% ETH $1,648 +1.20% SOL $82.40 +0.85% XRP $1.14 +3.00% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from RealFi Most stablecoins leave capital sitting still. RealFi is different. It connects on-chain capital to real-world markets like US Treasuries, money market funds, and private credit. Real transparency. Real impact. RealFi. RealFi is launching August 2026. Join the waitlist at realfi.co. Join the waitlist CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 The U.S. inflation outlook underpins bitcoin bulls after their best week since March. Bitcoin rose nearly 7% in the week ended July 5 — its best weekly performance since March — and the macro picture heading into Q3 is giving bulls something to work with. The key signal: the U.S. two-year inflation breakeven, which measures the bond market’s expectation of future price increases by comparing regular Treasuries to inflation-protected ones, has dropped below 2% for the first time since 2024. That’s the Fed’s own inflation target — meaning the market is now pricing in inflation falling below the threshold that would justify rate hikes. Notably, both the two-year breakeven and WTI crude oil prices have slipped to levels last seen before the onset of the Iran war in late February. Brookings Institution’s Robin Brooks puts it directly: July 14 CPI, when the deflationary impulse from falling oil prices shows up in the data, should remind markets that the Fed isn’t going to hike — and that the next move, if anything, will be a cut. Bullish dollar positioning is already lopsided and vulnerable to sudden unwinding, which would put the DXY under pressure and give bitcoin a further tailwind. A dissenting camp cautions that sticky service-sector inflation means the Fed will keep rates higher for longer even if headline CPI moderates. The next data catalyst is July 14. FOMC minutes land later this week. This week also marks nine months since bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 — the stock now trading near $62,500, roughly a 50% correction, with four-year cycle models pointing to a potential bottom around October. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Bitcoin pops to $63,900, then reverses, as the week begins. Bitcoin touched $63,882 overnight — its highest print since before the June bear run — before retreating to around $62,900 as Monday’s U.S. market session opened. The reversal came as premarket trading showed a strong bid for memory and semiconductor stocks: SanDisk and Micron were each up around 3%, and neo-cloud names including IREN and Cipher Digital added roughly 4%, suggesting capital rotation between the AI trade and crypto-related assets. As money flowed back into tech, BTC slipped more than 1% below $63,000. Thursday’s soft jobs report — which came in below expectations — had given BTC the lift heading into the weekend, raising hopes that a weakening labor market makes a Fed hike less likely and gradually shifts the backdrop that drove ETF outflows through June. That process takes time, and one data print does not flip the setup. July 14 CPI is the next significant catalyst. XRP rose 3% as the $1.14 breakout level transitions to support, and ether held above key technical levels, with ETH leading the broader crypto market’s hold Monday morning. LIT, the Lighter exchange token, surged 13% on a bullish tokenomics update featuring permanent token burns and staking rewards drawn from the ecosystem allocation. Read more → Markets   Story 3 of 3 SpaceX’s Nasdaq 100 inclusion comes with a historical warning. SpaceX (SPCX) joins the Nasdaq 100 tomorrow, July 7, following a blockbuster $75 billion IPO — the largest in history — in mid-June. The stock surged to $225 in the days after its June 12 debut before deflating to $162 last week, already down 28% from its all-time high. The question for markets is what happens next — and history offers a cautionary answer. Index inclusion, widely viewed as a positive milestone that forces passive fund buying, has not reliably been a bullish catalyst for the stocks that receive it. Palantir joined the Nasdaq 100 on Dec. 23, 2024, and peaked around that time before declining roughly 25% in the weeks that followed. Strategy entered the same index on the same date, but its cycle high had already been set a month earlier near $543 in November, when bitcoin was trading around $100,000. MSTR now trades near $100 — an 80% correction from its peak. The pattern is straightforward: investor optimism is often already elevated by the time inclusion arrives, passive fund buying has largely been anticipated and priced in, and the news itself becomes a sell-the-event catalyst. SpaceX’s IPO came at the peak of the AI infrastructure frenzy, when semiconductor and memory stocks were surging on demand for AI compute and high-bandwidth memory. With the stock already retracing sharply from its highs, history suggests the Nasdaq 100 badge may offer less of a floor than many assume. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences