Macro strategist Mark Connors said a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict could boost bitcoin as war-related deficit spending expands liquidity and weakens the dollar
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Rapid U.S. debt growth and potential currency debasement are likely to push investors toward alternative assets such as bitcoin, Connors said
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The Fed's need to keep Treasury markets functioning, combined with government borrowing, may lead to lower rates and looser liquidity that historically support bitcoin
Bitcoin has its own volatility gauge (BVIV), and that spiked in early February, suggesting crypto markets may have already experienced their panic phase
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The market is navigating extreme macro turbulence this morning. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are seeing a slight relief bounce from weekend lows, the Fear & Greed Index has plummeted to 8 (Extreme Fear), reflecting deep retail anxiety over geopolitical escalations.
Oil hits $100/barrel as BTC tests "digital gold" thesis
Crude oil prices skyrocketed past $100 this morning due to intensifying Middle East conflict. While traditional equities are sliding on inflation fears, Bitcoin is seeing a "flight to safety" bid, recovering to $68k after a sharp weekend sell-off.
Implication: This is a critical stress test for the 2026 market. If Bitcoin continues to rise alongside gold and oil while the S&P 500 falls, it confirms the "macro hedge" narrative that institutions have been building. However, the "Extreme Fear" reading suggests retail is still panic-selling into institutional hands.
Bitcoin dominance slips to 58% as ETH gains traction
Despite the macro gloom, Ethereum (ETH) has outperformed BTC over the last 24 hours, reclaiming the $2,000 level. Analysts point to Bitcoin dominance sliding toward a 58.3% "pivot zone," which has historically signaled the start of capital rotation into high-beta assets.
Implication: "Smart money" appears to be initiating a long-awaited rotation. If BTC consolidates here and dominance continues to drop, we could see a massive "Altseason" breakout, led by Ethereum and Solana, even if the headline geopolitical news remains grim.
G7 considers coordinated oil release to calm markets
Reports indicate G7 finance ministers are discussing an emergency release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to combat the $100+ oil spike. This news briefly pushed oil down from its $116 peak to $104, causing a temporary relief rally in risk assets like XRP and SOL.
Implication: Government intervention in energy markets typically leads to short-term volatility in crypto. For XRP specifically, its resilience at $1.35 during this chaos suggests strong institutional support for its cross-border utility as a "bridge currency" during fiat currency instability.
A message from ProShares
The Crypto Market is Evolving. Is Your Strategy?
As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, investors are increasingly seeking diversified access beyond single‑asset exposure.* With the launch of the ProShares CoinDesk 20 Crypto ETF (KRYP), investors can gain exposure to 20 of the largest and most liquid cryptocurrencies—all in one ticker.
KRYP is the first U.S. ETF designed to track the CoinDesk 20 Index, which selects from the top 250 digital assets by market capitalization, applies liquidity and exchange‑listing requirements and excludes stablecoins, memecoins, privacy tokens, and other non-qualifying assets. The index is market‑cap weighted, subject to caps, and rebalanced quarterly.
*Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. There is no guarantee that any ProShares ETF will achieve its investment objective.
This ETF invests in swap agreements and does not invest directly in crypto assets. Investors seeking exposure to crypto assets directly should consider an investment other than this ETF. Crypto assets are a relatively new asset class and the market for crypto assets is subject to rapid changes and uncertainty. Crypto assets are subject to unique and substantial risks, such as rapid price swings and lack of liquidity, including as a result of changes in their supply and demand, statements by influencers and the media, and other factors. Crypto assets are largely unregulated and may be more susceptible to fraud and manipulation than more regulated investments. The value of an investment in the ETF could decline significantly and without warning, including to zero. This ETF may not be suitable for all investors.
This ProShares ETF is a non-diversified investment company and entails certain risks, including risks associated with the use of derivatives (swap agreements, futures contracts and similar instruments), counterparty risk, imperfect benchmark correlation, and market price variance, all of which can increase volatility and decrease performance. While the ETF's index has 20 constituents, it may be heavily weighted in just a few crypto assets (e.g., Bitcoin, Ether, Binance Coin, Solana, XRP). As a result, their performance will have a much greater influence on the ETF's performance than the remaining crypto assets in the index. The composition of the index can change significantly over time and many or all of the constituents may be replaced at each quarterly reconstitution. Smaller crypto assets tend to carry higher risks, including greater volatility and increased vulnerability to fraud or manipulation. This ETF is new and may have a limited number of market makers. There can be no assurance the fund will be successful or that an active market for its shares will develop. Shares of any ETF are generally bought and sold at market price (not NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the fund. Your brokerage commissions will reduce returns.
Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of ProShares before investing. This and other information can be found in the ETF's summary and full prospectuses. Read them carefully before investing. Obtain them from your financial professional or visit ProShares.com.
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CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk
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