Are bets on bitcoin bigger than sports?

Robinhood says bitcoin and gold prediction markets are now growing faster than sports. Plus: Bitcoin Core just changed how it handles bugs an AI can find in one prompt. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Friday, October 23, 2026 Robinhood sees surge in bitcoin, gold prediction markets as traders move beyond sports Bitcoin, gold and oil price contracts are now among Robinhood's fastest-growing prediction market products, overtaking sports as the engine of the business, according to Robinhood VP JB Mackenzie at the NEXTPredict conference Thursday. The Fed's September rate decision was the platform's largest single event contract in that month — not a sports bet. Crypto contracts have also moved toward 15-minute settlement windows. Mackenzie compared the speed to zero-day options and said prediction market users are quickly expanding into stocks, crypto and retirement accounts, making it potentially Robinhood's fastest-growing segment among its 11 $100M+ revenue businesses. 2-minute read → Research commissioned by Bullish The future of equity ownership: an issuer's guide to tokenized equities Tokenized equities are coming whether issuers participate or not — third parties are already creating synthetic versions offshore. CoinDesk Research maps the three models (issuer-sponsored, custodial, and synthetic), explains why only the first makes the token the share itself with full rights, and traces how BLSH became the first NYSE-listed company to place its entire cap table on-chain via the Equiniti × Bullish platform. The key insight: the transfer agent — not the blockchain — is the anchor of issuer-sponsored tokenization, and for companies already using Equiniti, it's an extension of an existing relationship rather than a new infrastructure project. Read the report → Tech Bitcoin Core changes security rules as AI makes finding code bugs dangerously easy Bitcoin Core merged a policy change Thursday that ends months-long embargoes on bugs an AI could rediscover with a single prompt — shipping fixes and advisories immediately instead. The change follows a summer in which AI tools found hundreds of bitcoin vulnerabilities before human researchers did, including 4,962 findings across 390 bitcoin projects in a single day by a 16-person volunteer group. "A secret any model can regenerate in one prompt was never going to protect users for long," the article concludes. The tradeoff: fixes will get less testing time before reaching nodes. 3-minute read → Know someone who should be reading this? Share this newsletter See all of CoinDesk’s newsletters    CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York,NY,10011,USA, Unsubscribe Manage Preferences   Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.

Bitcoin moves like Nvidia — and 8x more than the euro

Bitcoin is as volatile as Nvidia — and 8x more than the euro. HSBC just launched its first stablecoin to 3.3 million users. And midterm history says bitcoin's bottom may already be in. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Friday, October 23, 2026   The Nasdaq fell 2.6% Thursday after Meta dropped 7% on AI spending concerns, but crypto is holding steadier than equities — bitcoin’s implied volatility index sits below its 200-day average even as Wall Street’s VIX has topped its own. The Daybook today puts bitcoin’s volatility in context: at 38% realized, it matches Nvidia and sits eight times above the euro. HSBC launched RedCoin, its first stablecoin, on its PayMe app for more than 3.3 million users in Hong Kong. And midterm election history suggests bitcoin’s bear-market bottom may already be behind us — the July low at $57,850 arrived 125 days before the Nov. 3 vote, breaking the pattern of post-election lows seen in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Have a great weekend. Stay alert. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 10am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $81,938 +0.38% ETH $2,414 +0.21% SOL $105.07 +0.03% XRP $1.32 −0.48% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from Grayscale Meet ZCSH, the first and only US-listed ETP offering dedicated ZEC exposure.1 Zcash builds on Bitcoin’s foundation, adding optional privacy for transactions — shielded transactions at times have accounted for more than 50% of user transactions.2 Why ZCSH: Built by Grayscale, with nearly 10 years of operating history behind the fund. Over $900 million in AUM3 100% of management fees fund Zcash ecosystem growth4 Exposure through your brokerage account — no wallet, exchange account, or custody solution required. Invest now The Zcash ETF (“ZCSH”), an ETP, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (“40 Act”) and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 40 Act registered ETFs and mutual funds. An investment in ZCSH is subject to a high degree of risk and heightened volatility. ZCSH is not suitable for an investor that cannot afford the loss of the entire investment. An investment in ZCSH is not a direct investment in ZEC. Must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus, click here. Please read carefully before investing in the Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for ZCSH. 1First and only US-listed ETF dedicated solely to ZEC as of August 25, 2026. 2Blockworks Analytics, Zcash: Transactions, October 6, 2024–June 28, 2026. 3As of September 18, 2026. Subject to change. ​4All ZCSH management fees support initiatives for the development and growth of the Zcash ecosystem and marketing activities in support of ZCSH, for up to 12 months following the effectiveness of the Fund’s registration statement. This commitment is a voluntary undertaking by the Sponsor, paid from the Sponsor’s own funds after receipt of the Sponsor’s fee, and is not an obligation of the Fund. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Bitcoin is as jumpy as Nvidia — and eight times more volatile than the euro Bitcoin’s 90-day realized volatility sits at about 38%, almost exactly matching Nvidia’s 37% — making the world’s largest cryptocurrency roughly as turbulent as the world’s largest stock. Gold comes in at 23.5%, the S&P 500 at 11%, and EUR/USD — the most liquid fiat currency pair — at just 4.6%, meaning bitcoin swings about eight times more than the euro. The gap underscores how far bitcoin still has to go before it can credibly compete as a medium of exchange or currency alternative, as bitcoin maximalists argue. The direction is clear: bitcoin’s 90-day volatility averaged 58% since January 2020 and peaked at 134% in June 2020. Its calmest reading of 27.5% came in September 2025 when it was above $100,000. The BVIV implied volatility index is still below its 200-day moving average, while Wall Street’s VIX has broken above its own — a notable divergence heading into midterms. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Bitcoin has decoupled from midterm cycle bottom history Bitcoin’s major bear-market lows in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022 all arrived shortly after U.S. midterm elections — 71, 38 and 13 days after election day respectively. This cycle looks different. Bitcoin’s 2026 low of $57,850 arrived on July 1, some 125 days before the November 3 midterms — and since then it has recovered about 40%. If the bottom is already in, that would represent a meaningful break from the historical pattern. Bitcoin and QQQ have both fallen about 6% over the past 30 days, consistent with pre-midterm softness, but bitcoin is up 26% over 90 days compared to QQQ’s 3% — suggesting the weakness is more closely tied to bitcoin’s own market cycles than to election timing. The comparison matters for positioning: prior post-midterm recoveries were sharp. Read more → Finance   Story 3 of 3 HSBC rolls out its first stablecoin to over 3 million everyday app users HSBC launched RedCoin (RCHKD), a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, on its PayMe app today — letting more than 3.3 million users send money to contacts and pay at over 100,000 merchants. HSBC received one of Hong Kong’s first two stablecoin issuer licenses in April alongside Anchorpoint Financial, a Standard Chartered-led venture that began rolling out its own HKDAP token in August for institutional use. RedCoin will be fully backed by high-quality liquid assets held in segregated accounts. HSBC plans to bring it to its main banking app later this year and let customers use it to subscribe to tokenized investment products, including a new share class of its existing HKD money market fund. The launch is one of the clearest examples yet of a global systemically important bank rolling stablecoin infrastructure directly into a consumer payments product. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

Traders flee to bitcoin as altcoins slide, ETF flows wobble

Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market just hit its highest level since May, even as prices slip. Plus: China’s stocks enter a bear market, and spot ETFs have pulled in $1 billion in three days. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Thursday, October 22, 2026   Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market reached 60% on Wednesday, its highest level since May, even as prices weaken across the board. BTC slipped below $82,000 this morning, reversing Wednesday’s brief push above $84,000, while altcoins fell harder, with DeFi tokens leading the declines. Mixed earnings from Tesla and Meta revived doubts over AI spending and sent Asian stocks sharply lower, pushing China’s CSI 300 into a bear market. Spot bitcoin ETFs have taken in more than $1 billion over the first three days of the week, though analysts say steadier inflows are needed to confirm a stronger recovery. The Fed meets on rates next week. Stay alert. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 9am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $81,627 −2.53% ETH $2,397 −2.99% SOL $104.24 −2.31% XRP $1.32 −2.62% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from Grayscale Meet ZCSH, the first and only US-listed ETP offering dedicated ZEC exposure.1 Zcash builds on Bitcoin’s foundation, adding optional privacy for transactions — shielded transactions at times have accounted for more than 50% of user transactions.2 Why ZCSH: Built by Grayscale, with nearly 10 years of operating history behind the fund. Over $900 million in AUM3 100% of management fees fund Zcash ecosystem growth4 Exposure through your brokerage account — no wallet, exchange account, or custody solution required. Invest now The Zcash ETF (“ZCSH”), an ETP, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (“40 Act”) and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 40 Act registered ETFs and mutual funds. An investment in ZCSH is subject to a high degree of risk and heightened volatility. ZCSH is not suitable for an investor that cannot afford the loss of the entire investment. An investment in ZCSH is not a direct investment in ZEC. Must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus, click here. Please read carefully before investing in the Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for ZCSH. 1First and only US-listed ETF dedicated solely to ZEC as of August 25, 2026. 2Blockworks Analytics, Zcash: Transactions, October 6, 2024–June 28, 2026. 3As of September 18, 2026. Subject to change. ​4All ZCSH management fees support initiatives for the development and growth of the Zcash ecosystem and marketing activities in support of ZCSH, for up to 12 months following the effectiveness of the Fund’s registration statement. This commitment is a voluntary undertaking by the Sponsor, paid from the Sponsor’s own funds after receipt of the Sponsor’s fee, and is not an obligation of the Fund. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Bitcoin slides below $82,000 as AI doubts return, with DeFi tokens leading declines Bitcoin posted its biggest slide in two weeks, losing as much as 2.9% since midnight UTC after mixed earnings from Tesla and Meta revived doubts over AI spending and dragged Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.32%. Altcoins fell harder than bitcoin, with the CoinDesk 80 down 3.2% versus 2.5% for the CoinDesk 5, and ether shed 2.6% to near $2,400. DeFi bore the brunt: the sector index slid 5.6%, Curve dropped 8.2% and Ethena fell 7.2%. In derivatives, trading volume jumped 19% to $226.6 billion while open interest fell 2.46% to $141.8 billion, a sign traders were mostly closing positions rather than opening new ones, and liquidations rose 52% to $431.1 million. On Deribit, the $85,000 and $86,000 calls expiring Oct. 30 were the most traded contracts, though short-dated skews still favor puts. Monero was a rare bright spot, gaining 4.9%. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Asian stocks tumble, bitcoin retreats as China enters bear market Asian equities sold off as technology shares sank and oil climbed. China’s CSI 300 slid 2%, taking its decline from June’s peak to 20% and officially into bear market territory, while Japan’s Nikkei fell around 3%, South Korea’s Kospi 3.5% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng 3%. Chinese tech shares traded in Hong Kong had their worst session since the April 2025 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, and the sector benchmark is now down more than 40% from its peak. U.S. earnings added to the unease: Tesla fell about 3% after hours after cutting its capital-spending forecast, while Meta raised the low end of its spending guidance. Bitcoin retreated toward $82,000 as gold dropped below $4,100 an ounce, the VIX jumped 10% to around 18, and Brent crude climbed above $112, its highest since May. The selloff came even as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 5.08%, below its recent peak near 5.4%. Read more → Markets   Story 3 of 3 Bitcoin ETFs attract $1.08 billion in 3 days but it may not be enough for a steep rally U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have pulled in more than $1 billion this week, according to SoSoValue data, a sign of renewed but still tentative institutional demand. CoinDesk’s analysis finds the pace is not yet what has historically fueled big rallies. Across bitcoin’s three steep uptrends since January 2024, the funds averaged about $235 million a day in net inflows over 199 trading days, with 39 days of $500 million or more and six of $1 billion or more. Since July 1, the average is roughly $86 million a day, with seven days above $500 million and none above $1 billion, even as bitcoin has gained 39% from about $60,000 to $83,500. Analysts say sustained, steady inflows are needed to confirm a stronger recovery, though the report notes that futures trading and direct spot purchases can also lift prices. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences