👀 Insider bet? 10 fresh wallets wager on Iran ceasefire

Crypto bounces on Iran ceasefire bets — but a $25M stablecoin exploit and gold's worst week since 1983 remind us the risks aren't gone. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Monday, March 23, 2026   The Iran war is now four weeks old and remains the dominant force weighing on markets — but some participants are betting it ends soon. Onchain data shows 10 freshly created wallets placed $160,000 on a ceasefire before March is out, eyeing a potential $1 million payout. The wallets' suspicious timing has raised eyebrows, but the trade captures something real: if the war ends, crypto could see a sharp relief bounce. For now, valuations remain under pressure, even as BTC pushes higher this morning on the ceasefire speculation. Read today's full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h Signal BTC $70,817 +3.82% Bouncing ETH $2,174 +5.05% Leading SOL $90.53 +4.25% Recovery XRP $1.43 +2.55% Lagging Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Polymarket bettors wager $160K on an Iran ceasefire. The wallets look suspicious. Ten wallets with no prior transaction history sprang up simultaneously over the weekend, placing a combined $160,000 on an Iran ceasefire by month-end — a bet that could pay out over $1 million. The coordinated timing has raised insider-trading suspicions. Whether or not the wagers reflect real intelligence, they reflect a market truth: gold just posted its worst weekly drop since 1983, and a peace deal remains the single most powerful near-term catalyst for a risk-asset recovery. Read more → Security   Story 2 of 3 Resolv stablecoin crashes 70% after attacker mints $80M in unbacked tokens Over the weekend an attacker exploited a compromised private key in Resolv's USR stablecoin, minting roughly 80 million unbacked tokens with just $100,000 in collateral and extracting about $25 million in ETH. USR, designed to hold a $1 peg, crashed to $0.025 before a partial recovery to around $0.27. With $95 million in assets against $173 million in liabilities, the protocol is functionally insolvent. Resolv has paused all functions and is working with law enforcement to recover funds. Multiple connected DeFi protocols — including Morpho, Fluid, and Euler — moved swiftly to disable USR as collateral to contain contagion. Read more → Macro   Story 3 of 3 Gold erases all 2026 gains as Iran war sends metals into freefall Gold plunged as much as 8.8% last week to just below $4,100 an ounce, its worst weekly performance since 1983, wiping out all its gains for the year. The metal has shed more than 20% since the Iran war began. The selloff reflects broad deleveraging across traditional safe havens as the conflict drives energy inflation and forces institutional portfolio rebalancing. Bitcoin, by contrast, has held above $70,000 throughout — a relative performance that is drawing renewed attention from macro observers watching the BTC-to-gold ratio. Read more → A message from Grayscale Introducing Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF (Ticker: GAVA), offering exposure to AVAX and potential staking rewards. Launching with a 0% management fee*, GAVA reflects our conviction in Avalanche as a highly customizable blockchain with real-world use cases across gaming, finance, and enterprise. Why GAVA? • Staking exposure: Exposure to the native token of the Avalanche network, including its potential staking rewards. • Exposure to growing institutional adoption: Avalanche is a category leader in blockchain-based gaming with increasing traction among enterprises like KKR and FIFA. • Expert sponsor: Sponsored by Grayscale, the world's largest crypto-focused investment platform with over a decade of experience managing crypto investment products. The Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF (the "Fund") is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and therefore is not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. * Management fee at 0% for the first 3 months of trading or the first $1.0 billion of assets. After the fund reaches $1.0 billion in assets or after a 3-month waiver period, the fee will be 0.35%. Brokerage fees and other expenses may still apply. This information must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. An investment in the Fund is subject to significant risk and heightened volatility. GAVA is not suitable for an investor that cannot afford the loss of the entire investment. An investment in the Fund is not a direct investment in AVAX. This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any security in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational purposes and is subject to change. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the marketing agent for the Grayscale ETPs. © 2026 Grayscale. All rights reserved. CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

🔮 Witching hour x4

Trillions in derivatives expire today — and history says BTC dips in the days after. Plus why PitchFest matters heading into Miami, and Coinbase launches stock perp futures. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Friday, March 20, 2026 Trillions in options expire today as quadruple witching tests crypto resilience Four types of derivatives expire simultaneously today in the quarterly event that drove the highest S&P 500 volume of 2025. Bitcoin was consistently muted on the day itself last year — but saw weakness in the days to weeks after every single witching Friday. With oil above $100 and the Fed turning hawkish, the backdrop is even more fragile this time. Read the full story → Opinion Why CoinDesk PitchFest matters heading into Miami With Consensus 2026 weeks away, PitchFest is shaping up as the proving ground for the next wave of crypto startups — offering structured exposure to firms like Dragonfly, CoinFund, and Outlier Ventures. Read the op-ed → Markets Coinbase introduces stock perpetual futures for non-U.S. customers The contracts trade 24/7, are cash-settled in USDC, and allow up to 10x leverage on single-stock positions and 20x on ETFs — covering Apple, Microsoft, Tesla and major indexes. Read more → Consensus 2026 — Miami Don't just read crypto's top stories — experience them. Get your pass → Know someone who should be reading this? Share this newsletter See all of CoinDesk's newsletters    CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York,NY,10011,USA, Unsubscribe Manage Preferences   Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.

🏦 BTC holds $70K while gold tumbles and oil tops $110

BTC holds $70K as $5.7T in derivatives expire — plus why 7 in 10 finance chiefs now call digital assets non-negotiable. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Friday, March 20, 2026   Bitcoin has stabilized above $70,000 — a show of relative resilience after a week that saw it drop from $75,000, gold tumble 5%, oil surge above $110 a barrel, and rate-hike odds on prediction markets leap from 8% to 24%. The hawkish Fed, a hotter-than-expected PPI print, and ongoing supply disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have weighed on risk assets across the board. One analyst sees the upside emerging. Today's quadruple witching adds another test. Read today's full report → Market snapshot As of 8:30am EST Asset Price 24h Signal BTC $70,557 +0.62% Holding ETH $2,149 +1.10% Cautious SOL $89.76 +0.37% Range-bound XRP $1.46 +0.10% Resilient Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Bitcoin holds steady. One analyst sees the upside emerging. Despite a brutal week for most risk assets — gold down 5%, oil above $110, the S&P 500 below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 10 months — BTC has stabilized just above $70,000. The perceived odds of a Fed rate hike surged from 8% to 24% on prediction markets after Wednesday's hawkish hold. BTC/SPX may be showing early signs of bottoming out, with RSI bouncing off oversold levels, but traders are being urged to hold dry powder until the dust settles. Read more → Derivatives   Story 2 of 3 $5.7 trillion in derivatives expire today. Crypto is watching closely. Today is quadruple witching — the quarterly event when stock index futures, stock index options, single-stock options, and single-stock futures all expire at once. An estimated $5.7 trillion in contracts settle today, with volume likely to spike in the final hour. Bitcoin faces a double-event: $1.7 billion in BTC options also expire on Deribit today, with a max pain price sitting at $70,000 and a put/call ratio of 0.96. Historically, crypto's most significant witching-day reactions come in the days and weeks after, not on the day itself. Read more → Institutional   Story 3 of 3 Ripple survey: 7 in 10 finance leaders say digital assets are now non-negotiable A new Ripple survey of more than 1,000 global finance leaders finds digital assets have moved from experiment to strategic necessity. Seventy percent say firms must offer digital asset solutions to stay competitive. Stablecoins drew the strongest consensus: 74% of respondents said they can improve cash-flow efficiency and unlock working capital — a signal that the stablecoin use case has moved firmly into the treasury suite, not just payments. Read more → A message from Nexo Unlock 30 Days of Wealth Club Premier with Nexo Nexo is a premier digital wealth platform offering crypto yield up to 16%, crypto-backed credit lines, and a wide range of digital assets. It is returning to the U.S. with an enhanced platform and 30-day access to exclusive privileges for new clients. Join Nexo Nexo's products and services are not available to residents of certain jurisdictions. This content is not intended for use by persons in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Rates, product availability, features, and applicable terms may vary based on jurisdiction, eligibility, loyalty tier, and other factors, and are subject to change at any time. CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences