😅 Two inflation signals and one ceasefire collapse

Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over. Oil surged. Bitcoin dropped to $62K. And U.S. consumer inflation expectations just hit their highest since 2023. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Wednesday, July 8, 2026   Bitcoin’s inflation story just got more complicated. The bond market’s inflation expectations had dropped below the Fed’s 2% target — a bullish signal — but U.S. consumers are now expecting inflation at 3.7% over the next year, the highest reading since September 2023. Then the ceasefire collapsed. Trump told NATO leaders it’s “over,” after the U.S. struck more than 60 IRGC boats in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran retaliated against Kuwait and Bahrain. Oil surged more than 5%. Bitcoin fell back to $62,000. The CoinDesk 20 dropped 2.9%. Altcoins took the worst of it — $350 million of the $450 million in total liquidations came from altcoin pairs. Marex says the FOMC minutes due today are the “pin” for overcrowded longs. Watch it. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8:30am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $62,092 −1.94% ETH $1,638 −2.20% SOL $77.00 −3.80% XRP $1.10 −2.60% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from Ledn Better Rates. Same Gold-Standard Protection. Earn up to 6.5% APY on USDC Earn up to 4.0% APY on BTC Get a BTC-backed loan in minutes Your assets, always 1:1 backed Trusted by 100,000+ clients across 130+ countries. ledn.io Find out more What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Bitcoin’s inflation quagmire gets stickier as renewed MidEast conflict sends oil soaring. Bitcoin sits at an unusually complex intersection of conflicting inflation signals. On one hand, inflation breakevens — the bond market’s forward-looking expectations — have dropped sharply and are at or below the Fed’s 2% target at the short end, weakening the case for further rate hikes and providing a tailwind for BTC. On the other hand, a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Tuesday shows U.S. consumers expect inflation to reach 3.7% over the next year — the highest reading since September 2023 — and 3.3% over three years, the highest since June 2022. The Fed itself tends to trust breakevens over consumer surveys because they reflect institutional capital allocation, while survey respondents are frequently influenced by volatile everyday prices like gasoline and food. The case for falling breakevens being bullish for BTC still holds. But the central bank may not entirely dismiss Main Street sentiment, particularly if energy prices re-accelerate. And they just did. The U.S.–Iran ceasefire has collapsed. Trump told NATO leaders the ceasefire is “over” after the U.S. struck more than 60 IRGC boats in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran retaliated with attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain. Oil benchmarks jumped roughly 5%. BTC fell back to $62,000. The FOMC minutes from the June meeting are due later today — Marex analysts call it “the pin” for overcrowded longs, warning that a hawkish read could flush leverage on a market where longs are crowded and funding rates still elevated. Meanwhile, Japan’s yen sits near four-decade lows — around 162 per dollar — and hedge funds are the most bearish on the yen since 2007. SBI VC Trade reports that Japanese companies are accumulating BTC and XRP on their balance sheets to diversify reserves away from a depreciating currency. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Japan’s collapsing yen is pushing companies into bitcoin and XRP. The yen is trading near its weakest level in four decades — around 162 per dollar — and Japanese companies are moving crypto onto their balance sheets to escape it. SBI VC Trade, the crypto arm of Tokyo-based SBI Holdings, reported Tuesday that corporate demand for BTC and XRP is climbing as the currency’s slide pushes firms to diversify reserves beyond cash. The exchange’s registered accounts have passed 2 million, roughly double its 2025 count, with growth driven in part by companies that distribute bitcoin or XRP through shareholder-perk programs. Hedge funds are the most bearish on the yen since 2007, having boosted short bets to nearly 138,000 contracts as of June 30 per CFTC data. The driver is the rate gap between a hawkish U.S. Fed and a Bank of Japan still far behind it — the same gap that makes holding yen cash a losing position and drives firms into harder assets. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi has fallen roughly 20% from last month’s peak, entering a technical bear market, with SK Hynix and Samsung each down more than 5% Wednesday as AI-infrastructure spending doubts deepen. Bitcoin traded near $62,650 — down 0.6% on the day but still up 6.1% on the week. Robinhood Chain topped $100 million in total value locked just one week after its Arbitrum L2 debut, with $89.8 million held on Morpho powering the new Robinhood Earn product and $13 million on Uniswap. U.S. consumer inflation expectations hit their highest since September 2023, at 3.7% for the next 12 months per the NY Fed survey. Read more → Markets   Story 3 of 3 Crypto and stocks tumble after Trump declares the ceasefire ‘over’ following Iran strikes. Crypto markets fell sharply Wednesday after fresh U.S.–Iran hostilities sparked a broad risk-off move. The CoinDesk 20 Index dropped 2.9% since midnight UTC, with all but one token declining. Trump told NATO leaders the ceasefire is “over” and called negotiating with Iran a “waste of time,” after U.S. Central Command hit more than 60 IRGC boats in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran retaliated with strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain. BTC and ETH each fell more than 2%. The Dollar Index (DXY) rose as reignited tensions stoked inflation concerns. Altcoins bore the brunt: $350 million of the $450 million in total liquidations came from altcoin pairs, with JUP, ETHFI and PUMP each losing more than 5%. Solana wiped out its entire July rally, trading back near $77 after hitting $84 on Monday. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures tumbled as much as 1.5%. On the derivatives front, BTC open interest fell from 740K to 730K BTC — suggesting traders are not aggressively shorting the decline. However, the one-week options skew on Deribit jumped to nearly 20% in favor of puts from 16% a day earlier, and implied volatility indexes BVIV and EVIV both rose for a second straight day. The only notable green token: MORPHO, up 4% as TVL on the Morpho protocol hit a record 4 million ETH. Several altcoins have also dipped back into oversold territory, with average RSI falling to 40/100 from 47/100 Tuesday — a level that has historically preceded short-term bounces. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

Are bitcoin ETF inflows finally back? 📈

Bitcoin and ether ETFs both drew inflows Monday. The SEC's "Reg Crypto" is one White House sign-off away. And Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish on SpaceX. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Tuesday, July 7, 2026 Bitcoin and ether ETFs drew inflows on Monday U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $265.69 million on Monday — the largest daily inflow in over a month — led by BlackRock's IBIT at $209.40 million. Ether ETFs added $20.66 million, led by ETHA at $23.29 million. The returning bid comes even as bitcoin retreated from $64,000 back toward $62,900 after Strategy's latest sale news landed. Analyst Will Clemente flagged bullish momentum divergence and relative strength vs. equities as reasons the setup "is the most interesting spot for crypto in a while." The weekly picture is still negative — eight straight weeks of net ETF outflows — but Monday's number suggests the directional turn may be underway. Read live updates → Policy U.S. SEC to propose crypto rule as soon as this month to ease startups' fundraising The SEC's long-awaited "Reg Crypto" is now with the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs — one sign-off away from publication — and Chair Paul Atkins says it could drop this month. The rule would create a fundraising exemption allowing startups to raise up to a defined ceiling in crypto assets during any 12-month period, and carve out a four-year registration exemption for developers to reach "maturity" without triggering securities law. Atkins has made clear the proposal focuses on startups rather than incumbents: "We want people really to experiment within that framework." Read more → Markets Analysts see more upside for SpaceX as post-IPO research begins The 25-day post-IPO quiet period expired Tuesday and Wall Street launched coverage of SpaceX (SPCX) with near-unanimous bullishness. Goldman Sachs set a $205 target, Morgan Stanley went to $300, and other firms ranged as high as $800 — all buy-equivalent ratings. The stock priced at $135 in June's $75 billion IPO and is currently trading around $150, down from post-listing highs. SpaceX held 18,712 BTC as of March 31, making its Nasdaq 100 inclusion this week — and the passive buying it will trigger — another point of crypto-adjacency for the asset class to watch. Read more → Know someone who should be reading this? Share this newsletter See all of CoinDesk’s newsletters    CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York,NY,10011,USA, Unsubscribe Manage Preferences   Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.

The rally's looking fragile — here's what the data shows

Bitcoin's six-day win streak is over. The Coinbase Premium has been negative for 50 straight days. But ETFs drew $265M on Monday — the most in a month. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Tuesday, July 7, 2026   Bitcoin snapped its six-day winning streak on Tuesday, and the data behind the rally was already raising doubts. The Coinbase Premium — the gap between BTC’s price on Coinbase versus Binance — has been negative for fifty straight days, the longest such streak on record. That’s a signal of persistently weak U.S. demand. Japan’s 10-year yield surged to a 30-year high of 2.85%, lifting borrowing costs in the U.S., U.K. and Germany and creating a fresh headwind. The one bright spot: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $265.69 million on Monday — the largest single-day inflow in over a month — and ether ETFs added $20.66 million. It’s an early signal. But until IBIT sustains inflows, the institutional bid remains structurally unproven. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $63,343 +1.42% ETH $1,672 +1.80% SOL $83.20 +0.96% XRP $1.14 −0.35% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 2 Bitcoin’s July gains may be fleeting as U.S. demand stays weak. Bitcoin ended its six-day winning streak — the longest since March — on Tuesday, and the gains looked fragile even before the reversal. The Coinbase Premium, which tracks the spread between BTC’s price on Coinbase versus Binance, has been negative for fifty consecutive days according to Coinglass — meaning for close to two months, BTC has been cheaper on the U.S.’s dominant retail exchange than on its globally dominant rival. The streak is the longest on record and reflects persistently weak demand from the world’s largest economy, a message echoed by eight consecutive weeks of net outflows from U.S. spot ETFs. Bitfinex analysts say that until IBIT itself flips back to sustained inflows, the structural institutional bid remains unproven. A fresh headwind arrived Tuesday morning: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield surged to a 30-year high of 2.85%, lifting borrowing costs in the U.S., U.K. and Germany in sympathy. Rising Japanese yields have preceded risk-off episodes in crypto before — most notably during the August 2024 yen carry-trade unwind — and the market is sensitive to the signal. On the macro data front, Iran fired missiles at two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil prices by more than 1% and reviving supply disruption concerns that had briefly abated. QCP Capital says the near-term backdrop remains constructive if ETF inflows continue, and a decisive reclaim of $64,000 would ease concerns about Strategy. The combined market cap of USDT and USDC has declined from $268 billion to $257 billion over two months — net capital outflow from the crypto ecosystem rather than recycling back into risk assets. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 2 Bitcoin and ether ETFs drew inflows on Monday — the largest daily BTC haul in over a month. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $265.69 million on Monday — the largest single-day inflow in over a month and only the second positive session in three after July 2 broke a long run of outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT absorbed $209.40 million, ARKB took in $32.98 million, and Grayscale’s mini BTC fund added $42.25 million. GBTC shed $44.45 million, the only fund in the red. Ether ETFs added $20.66 million on the same day, led by BlackRock’s ETHA at $23.29 million. The daily turn has not repaired the weekly picture: spot bitcoin ETFs still lost a net $526.6 million over the shortened July 4th holiday week — an eighth consecutive week of negative flows. Total bitcoin ETF assets climbed back to $77.32 billion from a June 30 low of $70.95 billion, helped by both the price recovery and the returning bid. USDT’s market dominance rate also slipped from a four-year high of 9.35% last month to 8.54% — a signal of returning risk appetite, since falling USDT dominance typically reflects capital rotating back into risk assets rather than parking in the safe-haven stablecoin. Bitcoin traded near $63,200 as Tuesday’s session opened. Read more → Exchange Review, supported by Gate CEX volumes drop to lowest since September 2024 as RWA perps hit record high Combined spot and derivatives trading on centralized exchanges fell to $4.41T in May, the weakest month since September 2024, as RWA perpetual futures volumes bucked the trend to hit an all-time high. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences