Bitcoin had its best week since March, rising nearly 7% through July 5 as the soft NFP print validated the Warsh pivot and the dollar softened. The macro underpinning is firming: the U.S. two-year inflation breakeven has dropped below 2% — the Fed’s own target — for the first time since 2024. That’s the bond market saying inflation is expected to fall below the threshold that justifies rate hikes. The next confirm-or-deny moment is July 14 CPI. Overnight, BTC touched $63,900 then pulled back to around $62,900 as capital rotated back into memory and semiconductor stocks in premarket. And SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 tomorrow — a milestone the history books say to treat carefully.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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The U.S. inflation outlook underpins bitcoin bulls after their best week since March.
Bitcoin rose nearly 7% in the week ended July 5 — its best weekly performance since March — and the macro picture heading into Q3 is giving bulls something to work with. The key signal: the U.S. two-year inflation breakeven, which measures the bond market’s expectation of future price increases by comparing regular Treasuries to inflation-protected ones, has dropped below 2% for the first time since 2024. That’s the Fed’s own inflation target — meaning the market is now pricing in inflation falling below the threshold that would justify rate hikes. Notably, both the two-year breakeven and WTI crude oil prices have slipped to levels last seen before the onset of the Iran war in late February. Brookings Institution’s Robin Brooks puts it directly: July 14 CPI, when the deflationary impulse from falling oil prices shows up in the data, should remind markets that the Fed isn’t going to hike — and that the next move, if anything, will be a cut. Bullish dollar positioning is already lopsided and vulnerable to sudden unwinding, which would put the DXY under pressure and give bitcoin a further tailwind. A dissenting camp cautions that sticky service-sector inflation means the Fed will keep rates higher for longer even if headline CPI moderates. The next data catalyst is July 14. FOMC minutes land later this week. This week also marks nine months since bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 — the stock now trading near $62,500, roughly a 50% correction, with four-year cycle models pointing to a potential bottom around October.
Bitcoin pops to $63,900, then reverses, as the week begins.
Bitcoin touched $63,882 overnight — its highest print since before the June bear run — before retreating to around $62,900 as Monday’s U.S. market session opened. The reversal came as premarket trading showed a strong bid for memory and semiconductor stocks: SanDisk and Micron were each up around 3%, and neo-cloud names including IREN and Cipher Digital added roughly 4%, suggesting capital rotation between the AI trade and crypto-related assets. As money flowed back into tech, BTC slipped more than 1% below $63,000. Thursday’s soft jobs report — which came in below expectations — had given BTC the lift heading into the weekend, raising hopes that a weakening labor market makes a Fed hike less likely and gradually shifts the backdrop that drove ETF outflows through June. That process takes time, and one data print does not flip the setup. July 14 CPI is the next significant catalyst. XRP rose 3% as the $1.14 breakout level transitions to support, and ether held above key technical levels, with ETH leading the broader crypto market’s hold Monday morning. LIT, the Lighter exchange token, surged 13% on a bullish tokenomics update featuring permanent token burns and staking rewards drawn from the ecosystem allocation.
SpaceX’s Nasdaq 100 inclusion comes with a historical warning.
SpaceX (SPCX) joins the Nasdaq 100 tomorrow, July 7, following a blockbuster $75 billion IPO — the largest in history — in mid-June. The stock surged to $225 in the days after its June 12 debut before deflating to $162 last week, already down 28% from its all-time high. The question for markets is what happens next — and history offers a cautionary answer. Index inclusion, widely viewed as a positive milestone that forces passive fund buying, has not reliably been a bullish catalyst for the stocks that receive it. Palantir joined the Nasdaq 100 on Dec. 23, 2024, and peaked around that time before declining roughly 25% in the weeks that followed. Strategy entered the same index on the same date, but its cycle high had already been set a month earlier near $543 in November, when bitcoin was trading around $100,000. MSTR now trades near $100 — an 80% correction from its peak. The pattern is straightforward: investor optimism is often already elevated by the time inclusion arrives, passive fund buying has largely been anticipated and priced in, and the news itself becomes a sell-the-event catalyst. SpaceX’s IPO came at the peak of the AI infrastructure frenzy, when semiconductor and memory stocks were surging on demand for AI compute and high-bandwidth memory. With the stock already retracing sharply from its highs, history suggests the Nasdaq 100 badge may offer less of a floor than many assume.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said Wednesday at Sintra that inflation risks have come down — and bitcoin heard it loud and clear, ripping back above $61,000 for the first time in a week. Gold stabilized above $4,050. The CoinDesk 20 Index gained nearly 5% across the board, with Marex calling it the “first real bounce of the whole selloff with something behind it.” Now the baton passes to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30am ET. Economists expect +110,000 jobs, unemployment steady at 4.3%, and wages edging up to 3.5%. A soft print validates Warsh, pressures the dollar, and could accelerate the debasement trade. A hot print stalls the bounce, fast. And beneath the surface, Glassnode is flagging something notable: long-term holders have flipped back to net accumulation.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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Warsh’s comments set the stage for U.S. jobs data to ignite a bitcoin and gold rally.
The debasement trade — where investors move out of fiat and into hard assets with limited supply like bitcoin and gold — could be back in vogue if Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls data backs up Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s latest take on inflation. Speaking at Sintra on Wednesday, Warsh said inflation risks have come down. That comment triggered a quick reassessment of Fed rate-hike prospects and sparked a bounce in both bitcoin and gold. BTC pushed above $61,000 — its first time back above that level in a week — while gold stabilized above $4,050 after dipping to $3,942 earlier this week. The rally could accelerate materially if June payrolls come in soft: economists expect +110,000 jobs (down from May’s 172,000), unemployment steady at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings edging up to 3.5% from 3.4%. A weaker-than-expected print would validate Warsh, reduce the case for further Fed tightening, and put real pressure on the dollar. With bullish dollar positioning already lopsided, a soft NFP could trigger a sharp DXY snap-back — giving bitcoin and gold a meaningful tailwind. A hot print, especially on wages, stalls the bounce fast. The RSI on bitcoin’s daily chart is also flashing a bullish divergence: price hit 21-month lows earlier this week, but momentum behind the selling was already fading. Metaplanet added another $170 million in BTC, bringing its treasury to 43,000 BTC, and Robinhood launched its own public blockchain (an L2 on Arbitrum).
Smaller tokens lead as bitcoin and SOL rally in the ‘first real bounce of the selloff.’
The CoinDesk 20 Index rose nearly 5% in 24 hours to its highest in a week, with every member in the green. Memecore’s M and Audiera’s BEAT surged 81% and 12% respectively, leading the top 100 by market cap. Bitcoin added more than 4% to $61,200, ether rose 5%, SOL gained 9% after the network unveiled an onchain governance system requiring 100,000 tokens staked to submit proposals — SOL is up roughly 16% on the week. XRP gained nearly 4%. “First real bounce of the whole selloff, and it has something behind it,” Marex analysts wrote, citing Warsh’s comments walking back July rate-hike bets. Derivatives confirm the move has some substance: BTC open interest rose to 777,870 BTC — the highest since June 4 — alongside rising prices, which typically signals an uptrend rather than a short squeeze. Short liquidations dominated at $444.6 million, a dramatic reversal from weeks of long liquidations. Annualized funding rates of around 10% and the strongest 24-hour cumulative volume delta among major tokens support the bullish reading. That said, BTC and ETH three-month futures basis on Binance remains below the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield of 4.49%, signaling limited institutional deployment so far. On Deribit, puts still trade at a premium to calls across all time frames — caution hasn’t fully cleared.
Bitcoin’s long-term holders have returned to accumulation.
Positive undercurrents are forming beneath the surface, according to Glassnode, contradicting the bearish sentiment that dominated after June’s 20% drop. The most notable signal: the long-term holder net position change — which tracks the 30-day net change in supply held by wallets that have held coins for at least 155 days — has flipped back into positive territory after an extended period of distribution. Current accumulation is running in the range of roughly 50,000 to 100,000 BTC on a net basis. That’s a meaningful behavioral shift, though still modest compared to the waves of buying seen during prior bull runs: the November 2024 and May 2025 upswings saw net long-term holder accumulation approaching 400,000 BTC. The broader Accumulation Trend Score — which measures buying across wallet sizes on a 0–1 scale — has shifted meaningfully higher, suggesting broad-based dip-buying. The strongest accumulation is coming from the smallest holders (under 1 BTC, scoring near 0.8–0.9) and mid-sized wallets (100–1,000 BTC, similar range). Larger cohorts are also buying, but at more moderate levels. The notable exception: the largest whale wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC still read closer to neutral at roughly 0.4–0.5. Glassnode says it is too early to call this a full accumulation regime — the biggest players haven’t committed — but synchronized buying across most wallet-size cohorts suggests that BTC at $60,000 is cheap enough to attract new demand from several corners of the market simultaneously.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk
