🤑 Is bitcoin's nemesis about to break out?

The Dollar Index is on the verge of a breakout — and that’s bitcoin’s nemesis. Warsh turned hawkish. BTC/ETH ETFs lost $111M. Market positioning is defensive and thin. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Thursday, June 18, 2026   Bitcoin’s nemesis — the Dollar Index — is on the verge of a major breakout. Warsh’s first FOMC decision held rates as expected, but his press conference was more hawkish than the market had priced, signalling the Fed is more concerned about inflation than growth. Stocks rose on the Iran deal signing. Bitcoin and ether fell. BTC and ETH ETFs lost $111 million combined as rate cut hopes died. The DXY now sits at a technical inflection point: if it breaks higher, BTC faces a mechanical headwind that has reliably capped rallies all year. Marex analysts call today’s positioning “defensive and thin.” Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $64,415 −1.37% ETH $1,784 −0.60% SOL $73.17 −1.69% XRP $1.18 −4.00% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from Ledn Better Rates. Same Gold-Standard Protection Ledn has introduced their lowest rates ever. No complexity, no fine print. The larger the loan the lower the rate. These new rates apply to all new loans, refinances, and renewals. You’ll see all the rates upfront, before you apply. The new, lower rates come with Ledn’s gold standard protection. Your bitcoin remains custodied and is never lent out for interest. Perfect 8 year track record of keeping clients assets safe Auto top-up, LTV alerts, and partial repayments to keep you in control Repay whenever you want—with zero penalties or monthly payments Ledn’s perfect $11B+ track record through every market cycle in the last eight years speaks for itself. Don’t choose between a great rate and the safety of your bitcoin. Get both, at Ledn. Check out your rate by using their loan calculator at ledn.io Find out more CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Bitcoin’s nemesis — the Dollar Index — is on the verge of a major breakout. Warsh held rates as expected but delivered a hawkish press conference — signalling the Fed is more worried about inflation than growth — and the Dollar Index responded by pushing toward key resistance. The DXY’s near-perfect inverse correlation with BTC has been a defining feature of this bear market: earlier this year the 30-day correlation ran at −0.90, meaning 81% of bitcoin’s short-term price moves were statistically linked to shifts in the greenback. A DXY breakout would mechanically cap any BTC recovery while that correlation holds. The outlook for the dollar is supported by three structural tailwinds now: the hawkish Fed, oil prices still elevated on residual Hormuz constraints even post-ceasefire signing, and a global repricing of the rate path as the BOJ also tightened last week. Stocks rose on the formal Iran deal — the ceasefire was signed yesterday — but crypto did not participate. The divergence between equities and crypto on a risk-on day is itself a warning sign about near-term positioning. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Bitcoin and ether ETFs lost $111 million combined as rate cut hopes died. U.S. spot bitcoin and ether ETFs lost a combined $111 million on Tuesday as Warsh’s press conference killed near-term rate cut expectations. Bitcoin ETFs bled the majority of the losses; ether ETFs also recorded outflows for the second consecutive session. The hawkish Fed tone hit crypto harder than equities because crypto’s recent recovery thesis has been premised partly on the expectation that the Fed would eventually blink — either on inflation or on growth. Warsh made clear he sees neither reason to blink now. Fed funds futures now price zero cuts in 2026 and an 80% probability of a 25bps hike by December. That repricing means every macro-driven crypto recovery attempt faces a structural interest-rate headwind that was not fully in the market 48 hours ago. The Iran ceasefire formal signing provided no lasting boost; the market had already priced the deal, and the hawkish Fed more than offset the geopolitical relief. Read more → Markets   Story 3 of 3 Crypto market positioning is “defensive and thin” after the Fed, Marex analysts say. Marex analysts describe Wednesday’s crypto market as “defensive and thin” — a combination they flag as inherently volatile: thin liquidity amplifies moves in both directions while defensive positioning means any macro surprise could trigger a sharp unwind in either direction. Oil has risen for five consecutive sessions, keeping the inflation channel open despite the ceasefire. Hormuz remains effectively constrained even post-signing, with full tanker traffic normalization expected to take weeks rather than days. The Warsh Fed’s hawkish stance removes the near-term catalyst that macro-driven bitcoin bulls needed to push through $68,000. Marex’s base case is that the market remains range-bound between $60,000 and $68,000 through the summer, with a breakout in either direction requiring a change in one of three variables: the Fed’s inflation narrative, Hormuz traffic normalization, or a resumption of ETF inflows. None of those three are currently trending in the right direction. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

Is your GTM strategy killing growth?

A 15-minute conversation + a one-page decision framework. One field unlocks it. Keynote CoinDesk Keynote · Sponsored by ChangeNOW Why your GTM strategy may be killing your crypto opportunity ChangeNOW CBDO Yana Mar names the four problems that quietly kill crypto products — and the one that does the most damage. While your competitors debate why their go-to-market strategy — not their tech stack — is killing their crypto opportunity, the answer is waiting for you below. Fill out the form to unlock the interview with ChangeNOW. Don’t be the one catching up too late. Unlock the interview → Inside the keynote ▪ The four problems every crypto product hits — and why go-to-market is the real killer. ▪ How a product can have a massive user base and still make no money. ▪ The build-vs-buy math: ChangeNOW says self-building can run up to 40 weeks vs. 1–3 weeks to integrate. ▪ Yana Mar on one partner integrating in 24 hours — and an exchange running on a team of 15 instead of 300. ▪ The xPortal case: an “invisible” infrastructure upgrade that moved retention and profit.   “You can have a huge user base and still make no money.” — YANA MAR, CBDO, CHANGENOW The full 15 minutes are free — but only if you unlock them. Grab it before your next planning conversation. Unlock the interview → CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

Three Fed signals that could make bitcoin pop today

Fed decision today. Three signals could make bitcoin pop. Long-term holders absorbed 125,000 BTC in June. A Gulf dynasty is moving $6T in trade onto blockchain. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Tuesday, June 17, 2026   The day’s main event is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first interest-rate decision — and no change in rates is expected, which means all the action is in the details. Fed funds futures price in an 80% chance of a 25bps hike by December. That number is the baseline. Three signals in today’s release could move BTC meaningfully: the dot plot, the economic projections, and Warsh’s press conference tone. Any one of them printing dovish relative to that 80% baseline could be the catalyst. Meanwhile long-term holders absorbed 125,000 BTC in June alone — a bottom signal that has historically preceded recoveries — and a 135-year Gulf trading dynasty is moving $6 trillion in trade finance onto blockchain rails. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8:30am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $65,285 −0.30% ETH $1,784 +0.60% SOL $73.17 −1.69% XRP $1.21 −2.09% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from Ledn Better Rates. Same Gold-Standard Protection Ledn has introduced their lowest rates ever. No complexity, no fine print. The larger the loan the lower the rate. These new rates apply to all new loans, refinances, and renewals. You’ll see all the rates upfront, before you apply. The new, lower rates come with Ledn’s gold standard protection. Your bitcoin remains custodied and is never lent out for interest. Perfect 8 year track record of keeping clients assets safe Auto top-up, LTV alerts, and partial repayments to keep you in control Repay whenever you want—with zero penalties or monthly payments Ledn’s perfect $11B+ track record through every market cycle in the last eight years speaks for itself. Don’t choose between a great rate and the safety of your bitcoin. Get both, at Ledn. Check out your rate by using their loan calculator at ledn.io Find out more CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. What matters today Macro   Story 1 of 3 Three Fed signals that could make bitcoin pop today. No rate change is expected from Warsh’s first FOMC decision — the market has that fully priced. What matters is how three components of today’s release compare to the baseline: Fed funds futures currently price an 80% probability of a 25bps hike by December 2026. Signal one: the dot plot. If fewer than 80% of Fed members are projecting a December hike, the market re-prices dovish and BTC moves up. Signal two: the economic projections. If GDP is revised down or unemployment up, the Fed’s growth concern softens the case for further tightening. Signal three: Warsh’s press conference. As a known hawk who has spent months signalling tighter policy is warranted, any dovish lean in his tone — acknowledgement of ceasefire-related disinflation via lower oil, or uncertainty about the rate path — would be read as a pivot signal. All three together would be the most bitcoin-positive outcome since the ceasefire news; any one alone could be enough to push BTC through the $68,000 resistance level that has capped the bounce since June 9. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 A bitcoin bottom signal flashed as holders absorbed 125,000 BTC in June. Long-term bitcoin holders — defined as wallets holding BTC for more than 155 days without movement — absorbed 125,000 BTC during June alone, even as price fell from above $65,000 to the low-$60,000s and back. The scale and pace of long-term holder accumulation at these levels is consistent with every prior major bear market bottom: in November 2022, March 2020, and December 2018, on-chain data showed the same pattern of experienced holders buying heavily into weakness while short-term traders sold. The signal does not set a precise bottom price — it sets a conviction signal. Combined with last week’s supply-in-loss crossover, the 200-week SMA touch at $61,300, and the ceasefire-driven macro relief, it adds one more piece of evidence that the worst of the June selloff is likely behind the market. Read more → Business   Story 3 of 3 Heir to a 135-year Gulf dynasty is moving a $6 trillion trade market onto blockchain rails. The heir to one of the Gulf region’s oldest and largest trading families is leading an initiative to migrate $6 trillion in annual commodity trade finance — letters of credit, cargo documentation, settlement, and counterparty verification — onto blockchain infrastructure. The dynasty’s trading house has operated for 135 years across oil, metals, and agricultural commodities, and the move represents one of the largest institutional commitments to blockchain adoption by a non-financial entity anywhere in the world. The project targets the inefficiencies in trade finance that still cost global commerce an estimated $1.5 trillion annually in delays, fraud, and duplicate documentation — a problem blockchain's immutability and programmability are uniquely positioned to solve. The announcement arrives the same week that Citi projected the tokenized securities market will hit $5.5 trillion by 2030, adding another data point to a growing consensus that RWA tokenization is moving from pilot to infrastructure. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences