With bitcoin holding above $78,000, Strategy's Michael Saylor posted "Winter's Over" on X — complete with a Game of Thrones-style image on horseback — declaring a new phase for the market. Analyst Mati Greenspan mostly agreed, arguing the recent slump was a pullback inside a broader bull market, not a true crypto winter, and that bitcoin has likely already bottomed. The real debate is what comes next: Greenspan and others say institutional accumulation is just the first leg, with nation-state adoption — central banks adding BTC alongside gold — as the cycle that follows. Not everyone is buying it: other analysts warn altcoins are still very cold, and that the four-year halving cycle hasn't been declared dead yet.
Independent researcher Giancarlo Lelli just won Project Eleven's 1 BTC Q-Day Prize — worth roughly $78,000 — after breaking a 15-bit elliptic curve key on publicly accessible quantum hardware using a variant of Shor's algorithm. That's 512 times larger than the previous public demonstration in September 2025. Bitcoin still uses 256-bit security, so the attack is far from threatening real wallets — but theoretical resource estimates for a full break have fallen sharply, with a Google paper now putting the threshold below 500,000 physical qubits. Roughly 6.9 million BTC sit in wallets with exposed public keys. The urgency around post-quantum migration plans like BIP-360 is growing.
The DOJ dropped its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday — the probe into renovation cost overruns that Republican Senator Thom Tillis had been using to block Kevin Warsh's confirmation. Within minutes of the announcement, Kalshi odds on Warsh being confirmed before May 15 jumped from 30% to over 80%. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro handed the matter to the Fed's inspector general, but reserved the right to restart the criminal probe. Powell's term as Fed chair expires next month — though he may remain on the board through 2028, keeping a vote on interest rates regardless of who takes the chair.
Bitcoin and the dollar are moving in near-perfect opposition — and it hasn’t been this extreme in almost four years. The 90-day correlation coefficient has dropped to −0.70, with 81% of BTC’s short-term price moves now statistically tied to moves in the Dollar Index. The DXY bounced to 98.75 this week, and BTC’s push above $79,000 stalled precisely as it did. U.S. first-quarter GDP lands at 8:30am ET today — a soft read would weaken the dollar and hand bitcoin a clear path higher heading into the weekend.
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Grayscale Solana Staking ETF (GSOL), an exchange traded product, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (“40 Act”), and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 40 Act registered ETFs and mutual funds. GSOL is subject to significant risk and heightened volatility. GSOL is not suitable for an investor who cannot afford to the loss of the entire investment. An investment in GSOL is not a direct investment in Solana.
Please read the prospectus carefully before investing in the Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Trust.
Potential staking rewards are earned by the Fund. The Fund’s ability to engage in staking is conditional and may be modified. Staking requires that the Fund lock up SOL for the period of time required by the staking protocol, meaning the Fund cannot sell or transfer the staked SOL, thereby making it illiquid for the period it is being staked.
1 Stakingrewards.com. The range observed is from 09/16/22 to 09/28/25 and the average over this period is 7.10%. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Bitcoin and the dollar are in near-perfect opposition. GDP at 8:30am could break it.
The 90-day correlation between BTC and the Dollar Index has fallen to −0.70 — a coefficient of determination of 0.81, meaning 81% of bitcoin’s short-term moves are now statistically explained by moves in the DXY. That reading hasn’t been this extreme since mid-2022. BTC hit $79,388 on Wednesday evening before the DXY bounced from its April 17 low of 97.63 to 98.75, capping the rally almost to the hour. Q1 GDP drops at 8:30am ET: a soft read would weaken the dollar and hand bitcoin a mechanical tailwind into the weekend. A beat, with oil still near $95 and yields elevated, would likely keep BTC range-bound below $80,000 ahead of the FOMC on April 28–29.
Morgan Stanley just launched a reserve fund built for stablecoin issuers. Wall Street is here.
Morgan Stanley Investment Management launched MSNXX — the Stablecoin Reserves Portfolio — a government money market fund holding only U.S. Treasury bills and government repo, built specifically to meet the reserve requirements expected under the GENIUS Act. The $1 NAV fund offers daily liquidity and positions Morgan Stanley as the regulated custodian of choice for stablecoin issuers once federal reserve rules are codified. The launch follows MS’s MSBT bitcoin ETP and its tokenized fund shares with BNY Mellon — three distinct crypto product moves in as many months from a firm that was among the most cautious TradFi players on digital assets as recently as 2023.
The Iran war is fracturing NATO. A Pentagon memo floated suspending Spain.
A memo circulating at senior levels of the Pentagon laid out options to punish NATO allies that denied the U.S. access, basing rights, and overflight clearance for the Iran campaign — including suspending Spain from the alliance and reassessing U.S. support for the UK’s Falklands claim. The diplomatic fallout adds a new dimension to the Iran war’s macro drag: not just oil prices and Hormuz disruption, but a fracturing of the Western alliance that underpins dollar reserve status. Separately, Wisconsin’s attorney general sued Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Crypto.com over prediction markets, arguing sports-event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling — the latest state-level strike against a sector that has grown sharply since 2025.
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