A look at the $3.2M bet that bitcoin hits $95K by Halloween

Someone just bet $3.2M that bitcoin hits $95K by Halloween. ETFs pulled in $1B on Monday — 9th largest ever. And Binance bought into Circle the same week it got a new DOJ probe. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Tuesday, September 22, 2026   Bitcoin is holding near $85,935 this morning, consolidating just below the January high of $98,000 that analysts have identified as the next meaningful resistance. Monday’s rally was validated by the highest-quality signal you can get: spot ETFs pulled in $998.95 million — the ninth-largest single-day inflow ever and the most since bitcoin hit its all-time high in October. BTC has now reclaimed all of its long-term moving averages after 300 days below them. In derivatives, a $3.2 million butterfly options trade made yesterday bets on a price near $95,000 by Halloween. And Binance just bought $100 million of Circle shares in a five-year USDC deal — announced the same day Bloomberg reported a fresh DOJ sanctions probe into the exchange. Stay alert. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $85,935 +0.76% ETH $2,742 +0.32% SOL $117.24 +0.42% XRP $1.54 +3.46% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from Grayscale Meet ZCSH, the first and only US-listed ETP offering dedicated ZEC exposure.1 Zcash builds on Bitcoin’s foundation, adding optional privacy for transactions — shielded transactions at times have accounted for more than 50% of user transactions.2 Why ZCSH: Built by Grayscale, with nearly 10 years of operating history behind the fund. Over $900 million in AUM3 100% of management fees fund Zcash ecosystem growth4 Exposure through your brokerage account — no wallet, exchange account, or custody solution required. Invest now The Zcash ETF (“ZCSH”), an ETP, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (“40 Act”) and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 40 Act registered ETFs and mutual funds. An investment in ZCSH is subject to a high degree of risk and heightened volatility. ZCSH is not suitable for an investor that cannot afford the loss of the entire investment. An investment in ZCSH is not a direct investment in ZEC. Must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus, click here. Please read carefully before investing in the Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for ZCSH. 1First and only US-listed ETF dedicated solely to ZEC as of August 25, 2026. 2Blockworks Analytics, Zcash: Transactions, October 6, 2024–June 28, 2026. 3As of September 18, 2026. Subject to change. ​4All ZCSH management fees support initiatives for the development and growth of the Zcash ecosystem and marketing activities in support of ZCSH, for up to 12 months following the effectiveness of the Fund’s registration statement. This commitment is a voluntary undertaking by the Sponsor, paid from the Sponsor’s own funds after receipt of the Sponsor’s fee, and is not an obligation of the Fund. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 A $3.2 million bitcoin butterfly trade bets on $95,000 by the end of October The most notable options trade of the past 24 hours was a “long call butterfly” executed in five blocks on Deribit, each consisting of 1,000 long calls at $90,000, 2,000 short calls at $95,000 and 1,000 long calls at $100,000 for the Oct. 30 expiry. The net cost was $3.17 million. The strategy earns the most if bitcoin settles near $95,000 at expiry — meaning the trader is positioning for a roughly $10,000 move from current levels in six weeks — and has a positive payoff anywhere between $90,000 and $100,000, with the $3.17M at risk outside that range. It is not a lone signal: bitcoin’s daily chart shows little historical resistance between $85,000 and $98,000 — the January high — and short-term risk reversals have flipped aggressively in favor of calls, per Laser Digital. Coinbase Markets puts one-standard-deviation expected swings this week at 8.9% for XRP, 8.0% for SOL, 6.9% for ETH and 5.0% for BTC. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Spot bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $1 billion on Monday — the 9th largest inflow ever U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs drew $998.95 million on Monday, their largest single-day inflow since October 6, 2025 — the day bitcoin hit its record high of $126,200 — and the ninth-largest in the products’ history. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $381.37 million, followed by Ark’s ARKB at $289.12 million and Fidelity’s FBTC at $238.84 million. The inflow reads as a direct vote of confidence from institutions: it came just days after bitcoin absorbed a failed Senate Clarity Act vote and a Fed rate hike without breaking down. Month-to-date flows now stand at $1.31 billion following August’s $3.52 billion. Year-to-date flows remain $450 million in the red, so bulls still have work to do to recover the losses from June’s $4.51 billion outflow month. Read more → Policy   Story 3 of 3 Binance buys $100 million Circle stake in a five-year USDC deal — and gets a new DOJ probe the same day Binance acquired 1.24 million Circle Class A shares at $80.84 each in a private placement that closed September 17, paying $100 million for a stake in the USDC issuer at a slight discount to market. Under a five-year expanded partnership, Circle will pay Binance a monthly incentive fee tied to USDC held through Circle’s wallet infrastructure, while Binance will promote USDC on its platform. Binance cannot sell or hedge the shares for two years but retains voting rights. The deal landed on the same day Bloomberg reported that U.S. federal prosecutors have opened a new sanctions-related investigation into Binance — a separate matter from the 2023 guilty plea that saw founder Changpeng Zhao serve a four-month sentence. The timing adds legal uncertainty to a partnership that otherwise signals USDC’s growing dominance over USDT on the world’s largest exchange. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

1 Day Until the SEC, NY DFS, Treasury, White House, House, Senate, and CFTC Convene

September 22 - Washington, D.C. ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­  

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