Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said Wednesday at Sintra that inflation risks have come down — and bitcoin heard it loud and clear, ripping back above $61,000 for the first time in a week. Gold stabilized above $4,050. The CoinDesk 20 Index gained nearly 5% across the board, with Marex calling it the “first real bounce of the whole selloff with something behind it.” Now the baton passes to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30am ET. Economists expect +110,000 jobs, unemployment steady at 4.3%, and wages edging up to 3.5%. A soft print validates Warsh, pressures the dollar, and could accelerate the debasement trade. A hot print stalls the bounce, fast. And beneath the surface, Glassnode is flagging something notable: long-term holders have flipped back to net accumulation.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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Warsh’s comments set the stage for U.S. jobs data to ignite a bitcoin and gold rally.
The debasement trade — where investors move out of fiat and into hard assets with limited supply like bitcoin and gold — could be back in vogue if Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls data backs up Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s latest take on inflation. Speaking at Sintra on Wednesday, Warsh said inflation risks have come down. That comment triggered a quick reassessment of Fed rate-hike prospects and sparked a bounce in both bitcoin and gold. BTC pushed above $61,000 — its first time back above that level in a week — while gold stabilized above $4,050 after dipping to $3,942 earlier this week. The rally could accelerate materially if June payrolls come in soft: economists expect +110,000 jobs (down from May’s 172,000), unemployment steady at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings edging up to 3.5% from 3.4%. A weaker-than-expected print would validate Warsh, reduce the case for further Fed tightening, and put real pressure on the dollar. With bullish dollar positioning already lopsided, a soft NFP could trigger a sharp DXY snap-back — giving bitcoin and gold a meaningful tailwind. A hot print, especially on wages, stalls the bounce fast. The RSI on bitcoin’s daily chart is also flashing a bullish divergence: price hit 21-month lows earlier this week, but momentum behind the selling was already fading. Metaplanet added another $170 million in BTC, bringing its treasury to 43,000 BTC, and Robinhood launched its own public blockchain (an L2 on Arbitrum).
Smaller tokens lead as bitcoin and SOL rally in the ‘first real bounce of the selloff.’
The CoinDesk 20 Index rose nearly 5% in 24 hours to its highest in a week, with every member in the green. Memecore’s M and Audiera’s BEAT surged 81% and 12% respectively, leading the top 100 by market cap. Bitcoin added more than 4% to $61,200, ether rose 5%, SOL gained 9% after the network unveiled an onchain governance system requiring 100,000 tokens staked to submit proposals — SOL is up roughly 16% on the week. XRP gained nearly 4%. “First real bounce of the whole selloff, and it has something behind it,” Marex analysts wrote, citing Warsh’s comments walking back July rate-hike bets. Derivatives confirm the move has some substance: BTC open interest rose to 777,870 BTC — the highest since June 4 — alongside rising prices, which typically signals an uptrend rather than a short squeeze. Short liquidations dominated at $444.6 million, a dramatic reversal from weeks of long liquidations. Annualized funding rates of around 10% and the strongest 24-hour cumulative volume delta among major tokens support the bullish reading. That said, BTC and ETH three-month futures basis on Binance remains below the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield of 4.49%, signaling limited institutional deployment so far. On Deribit, puts still trade at a premium to calls across all time frames — caution hasn’t fully cleared.
Bitcoin’s long-term holders have returned to accumulation.
Positive undercurrents are forming beneath the surface, according to Glassnode, contradicting the bearish sentiment that dominated after June’s 20% drop. The most notable signal: the long-term holder net position change — which tracks the 30-day net change in supply held by wallets that have held coins for at least 155 days — has flipped back into positive territory after an extended period of distribution. Current accumulation is running in the range of roughly 50,000 to 100,000 BTC on a net basis. That’s a meaningful behavioral shift, though still modest compared to the waves of buying seen during prior bull runs: the November 2024 and May 2025 upswings saw net long-term holder accumulation approaching 400,000 BTC. The broader Accumulation Trend Score — which measures buying across wallet sizes on a 0–1 scale — has shifted meaningfully higher, suggesting broad-based dip-buying. The strongest accumulation is coming from the smallest holders (under 1 BTC, scoring near 0.8–0.9) and mid-sized wallets (100–1,000 BTC, similar range). Larger cohorts are also buying, but at more moderate levels. The notable exception: the largest whale wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC still read closer to neutral at roughly 0.4–0.5. Glassnode says it is too early to call this a full accumulation regime — the biggest players haven’t committed — but synchronized buying across most wallet-size cohorts suggests that BTC at $60,000 is cheap enough to attract new demand from several corners of the market simultaneously.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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Welcome to Q3. It can’t be worse than Q2 — probably. The one place where investors are still putting money to work: XRP and HYPE funds, which drew inflows in June even as bitcoin and ether ETFs bled record amounts. Spot bitcoin ETFs shed $4.5 billion in June, the worst month in their history. And bitcoin’s monthly candlestick tells an even grimmer story than the raw 20% decline: a solid red brick with virtually no wicks, a technical pattern called a Marubozu, which chartists read as a warning of continued one-directional selling ahead. Analysts target $48,000–$55,000 as the eventual floor. Seasonality, at least, is on the bulls’ side — July has historically been positive for BTC ten times in fifteen years, with average gains of 19%.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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XRP and HYPE funds are the bright spots as investors flee bitcoin and ether ETFs.
XRP-linked ETFs added $59.4 million in June — a third straight month of net inflows, albeit at a slower pace — while HYPE funds notched $161 million in net inflows for the month. Both stand in sharp contrast to bitcoin ETFs, which suffered record outflows of more than $4 billion, ether ETFs losing $528.99 million, and solana ETFs shedding $786,000. The positive flows into XRP and HYPE signal potential for significant spot price appreciation, particularly if bitcoin and the broader market stabilize. HYPE has fundamental support too: its parent, decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, generated just over $80 million in fees over the past 30 days per DefiLlama — placing it third among all protocols globally, behind only Tether ($486.9 million) and Circle Internet ($184.07 million). July also offers seasonal hope. According to FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich, over the past 15 years bitcoin has ended July higher on ten occasions and lower on five, with an average gain of 19% and an average decline of 7.8%. History is no guarantee — and strong inflows into spot ETFs may be needed to lift BTC — but the setup entering Q3 is at least better on a relative basis than it was entering Q2.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs had their worst month ever in June, shedding $4.5 billion.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, the largest monthly redemption since their January 2024 launch. BlackRock’s IBIT alone shed $300 million in a single session Tuesday — its largest single-day outflow in weeks — while Fidelity’s FBTC and other smaller products also recorded sustained redemptions throughout the month. The cumulative outflow figure now stands at approximately $5 billion on a year-to-date basis, meaning the entire first half of 2024 inflow surge has effectively been unwound. Options traders have begun loading up on $50,000 strike puts — a bet that BTC could breach that level — and the gold futures ETF (GLD) is slipping into its own death cross, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day. BlackRock’s IBIT entered its own death cross in December 2025 and has since fallen 35%. The SOL/ETH ratio’s 50-day SMA is crossing above its 200-day SMA (a “golden cross”) — the one technical positive in an otherwise bleak picture, suggesting Solana may outperform Ether in the weeks ahead.
Bitcoin’s 20% June crash looks even deadlier on the charts. Here’s why.
Bitcoin fell 20% in June to under $60,000 — its worst monthly performance since June 2022 — but the monthly price chart reveals something even more concerning than the raw number. The June candlestick looks like a solid red brick with virtually no wicks: a clear sign of complete and uninterrupted bear dominance throughout the entire 30 days. Sellers never faced a serious challenge from bulls. There was no meaningful bounce above the June 1 open and no relief rally from lows. The price on June 30 was the lowest for the month. Traders call this a “Marubozu” — from the Japanese word for a shaved head — a candlestick with no shadows at either end. Most months, regardless of direction, produce at least some visible volatility because markets are inherently two-sided, and even in bad months there are usually sporadic recoveries that leave a trace. The absence of any of that in the June candle makes the bearishness stand out far beyond the raw 20% decline. The pattern on the monthly chart signals decisively bearish sentiment, consistent with analysts’ predictions of a deeper slide toward an eventual bottom in the $48,000–$55,000 range. As of Wednesday morning, BTC traded near $58,600.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk
