Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick says bitcoin is in “the buying zone” — but three ifs stand between here and a market low. BTC tumbled to $61,300 overnight, touching the 200-week moving average for the first time in this bear market, before recovering to ~$62,500. More than half of all circulating bitcoin supply is now held at an unrealized loss. The metric that has marked every prior bear market bottom just flashed. The question is whether that’s a floor or a doorstep to $50,000.
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L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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Standard Chartered: three ifs stand between bitcoin and a market low. This is the buying zone.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, says bitcoin is in “the buying zone” but outlines three conditions that must hold for a durable bottom: (1) the $60,000 level must not break, which Kendrick calls the critical threshold; (2) the 13-day ETF outflow streak must reverse; and (3) macro conditions must improve — either through a Fed rate signal, progress on Iran/Hormuz, or both. BTC touched the 200-week moving average at $61,300 overnight before recovering to ~$62,500. Every prior bitcoin bear market has ended in the vicinity of the 200-week SMA. Standard Chartered lowered its year-end BTC target from $150,000 to $100,000 in February but maintained that view; Kendrick’s current message: “When we look back at end-2026 with BTC at $100K and ETH at $4K, this will be the buying zone we all wanted.”
JPMorgan: time is running short for the crypto market structure bill.
JPMorgan’s Washington policy team is warning clients that the legislative window for a comprehensive U.S. crypto market structure bill is narrowing fast. The Clarity Act — which would define the SEC and CFTC split for digital asset jurisdiction — advanced through committee but faces a packed Senate calendar, with budget reconciliation, defense authorization, and the debt ceiling competing for floor time before the August recess. If the bill does not pass before the recess, it would need to be reintroduced in 2027 with a new Congress — resetting months of bipartisan progress. JPMorgan’s note highlights the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill as more likely to move first given its narrower scope and broader support, but cautions that even that timeline is not guaranteed. The window is open; it is not wide.
This bitcoin metric has marked every bear market bottom. It just flashed.
More than half of all circulating bitcoin supply is now held at an unrealized loss — 10.5 million BTC underwater versus 9.8 million in profit, per Glassnode data. This crossover of supply-in-loss over supply-in-profit has occurred at or near every major bear market bottom in bitcoin’s history, including November 2022 post-FTX, March 2020, and December 2018. BTC simultaneously touched the 200-week simple moving average at $61,300 — the long-term support level that previous bear markets also resolved around. The Power Law Oscillator has fallen to 4.4%, meaning bitcoin is cheaper than 95.6% of all historical readings relative to its long-term trend. None of these signals guarantee a bottom; the $60,000 support level and a reversal of the ETF outflow streak remain the two conditions analysts say must confirm before conviction is warranted.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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