Bitcoin’s implied volatility index DVOL has fallen to 35 — down from 90 earlier this year — and the market has apparently concluded this means nothing is about to happen. Bitwise’s Luke Deans put it bluntly: “The market is effectively becoming crowded around the expectation that very little will happen.” That crowding is itself the risk. Meanwhile the short-dated options market is sending a different signal: puts at $62,000 and $63,000 dominated 24-hour trading, with the three most popular expiring before month-end. Separately, 210,000 bitcoin have left long-term holder wallets in the past week — the largest such migration since December 2024 — but the key distinction is this is happening 50% below the all-time high, not near a top. The Coldcard fallout is reshuffling custody, not breaking conviction. Payrolls drop this morning — expectations call for +97,500 jobs and 4.2% unemployment. A strong read could reinforce the case for a rate hike and push the 10-year yield, already at an uncomfortable 4.67%, even higher. Have a good weekend.
Bitcoin’s volatility has nearly disappeared. The risk hasn’t.
Spot bitcoin ETFs have not seen a single day of outflows since August started, pulling in $754 million in the first week of the month. Yet bitcoin has barely moved, holding near $64,700. The opposing signals — institutional money returning but price inert — point to a market with a spot bid but limited conviction. Derivatives traders are simultaneously hedging against a retreat: puts accounted for 53.8% of bitcoin options volume in the past 24 hours, and three of the four most-traded contracts were puts at $62,000 or $63,000 expiring before month-end. Calls still represent 60.7% of total open interest, so the broader book remains skewed toward upside, but the near-term flow says protect first, speculate second. Underneath it all, Deribit’s DVOL volatility index sits near 35, down from 90 earlier this year, and it has compressed across 30-, 60- and 90-day windows and across one-week to three-month options — Luke Deans of Bitwise says the market is “becoming crowded around the expectation that very little will happen.” That crowding is precisely what makes a large move dangerous when it comes. July payrolls land this morning: economists expect +97,500 jobs after a +57,000 gain in June, with unemployment holding at 4.2%. The 10-year Treasury yield is already at 4.67%, a level Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer says “history suggests nothing good happens” at. A strong reading reinforces the case for a Fed rate hike and puts more pressure on that yield. Brent crude topped $83 after Yemen’s Iran-linked Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia, widening the conflict. Gold added 1.5% to $4,300 as investors moved toward safety. Clarity Act vote slipped to September after the Senate broke for recess without a vote. Stay alert.
Bitcoin hovers below $65,000 as Middle East tensions escalate further.
Bitcoin held near $64,700 on Friday, barely changed over 24 hours, while the broader CoinDesk 20 fell 0.2%. Brent crude climbed above $83 a barrel after Yemen’s Iran-linked Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia, the latest widening of a conflict that has now dragged Gulf energy infrastructure and key shipping chokepoints into its orbit. Treasury yields stayed elevated at 4.67% for the 10-year note, a level Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer described as one where “history suggests that nothing good happens.” Higher oil can add to inflation pressure if sustained, while elevated yields tighten financial conditions — together limiting the scope for near-term rate cuts and weighing on risk assets including bitcoin. Gold moved to $4,300, up 1.5%, as investors shifted toward safety. In derivatives, the long-short taker ratio returned to neutral after leaning bullish Thursday, suggesting caution ahead of the payrolls report. Canton Network’s CC token fell 13% yet saw futures open interest surge 5%, with the OI-adjusted CVD remaining negative — sellers dominating. Most major tokens showed negative CVD readings. DOGE, XRP and SUI saw open interest gains; SHIB fell. Iran’s chief negotiator accused Trump of “theater diplomacy” as the U.S. and Iran offered opposing accounts of peace talks, keeping oil elevated and Hormuz passage near standstill. Global stocks headed for their best weekly gain since May on earnings optimism, but crypto is finding it harder to join: the absence of clear crypto-specific catalysts — with Clarity Act now pushed to September — leaves bitcoin range-bound and waiting on macro data to provide direction.
Coldcard fallout shows up onchain as 210,000 bitcoin leaves old wallets.
The Coldcard security breach — in which weak randomness in affected firmware allowed attackers to reconstruct wallet recovery phrases and drain funds — has now produced a measurable onchain signature. Glassnode data shows roughly 210,000 BTC have moved out of long-term holder wallets in the past week, dropping LTH supply from just under 15 million to approximately 14.7 million — the largest such decline since December 2024, when bitcoin was approaching $100,000 for the first time. The crucial context is what makes this different: December’s distribution happened near a market peak, with experienced holders taking profits into strength. This week’s movement is happening with bitcoin roughly 50% below its all-time high. Glassnode’s read is that this is custody migration, not conviction loss — holders moving to newly generated wallets with stronger randomness, or shifting to regulated custodians and ETFs. ETF data offers supporting evidence: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $754 million this week, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for the majority. Alongside the LTH movement, Santiment data shows whale and shark wallets — those holding 10 to 10,000 BTC — have accumulated over 20,000 BTC worth roughly $1.2 billion since July 29, buying hardest as the Coldcard news spread. A 2011-era wallet also moved $3.2 million toward a FalconX-linked address on Thursday, one of several dormant-wallet movements that have punctuated the week. The scale of the LTH outflow warrants watching through the weekend: if price holds and supply continues migrating without appearing on exchanges as sell-side pressure, the read becomes more clearly a custody reshuffle than distribution.
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