Bitcoin is holding near $80,000, little changed from Saturday, but options traders are making noise: a single wallet on decentralized platform Derive bought 800 contracts of $90,000 calls expiring Nov. 6, roughly $68 million in face value and a bet on a breakout just after the U.S. midterm elections. Derive’s market-implied odds of bitcoin topping $100,000 by Christmas rose to 12% from 9.7% a week ago, though puts still cost more than calls on Deribit. Elsewhere, Anthropic filed for its IPO and is targeting a mid-November pricing, while oil retreated from six-month highs ahead of a Fed decision on Wednesday, with markets pricing a 90% chance of no change. Stay alert.
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Anthropic filed for an IPO on Monday morning, aiming to go public in November. The prospectus shows first-half 2026 revenue of $16.3 billion and a net loss of $80.7 billion, with the share count and price range not yet disclosed; the Financial Times reports investors expect a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion. The company held $112.4 billion in cash and equivalents plus $19.3 billion in short-term investments as of June 30, but warned that infrastructure spending will rise significantly. By Sept. 30, more than 1,900 customers had generated at least $1 million in trailing annual revenue, about 250 of them above $10 million. Chip stocks rose in premarket trading, with Nvidia up 1.4%, Broadcom up 1.5% and Micron up 2.3%. On Hyperliquid, the ANTH contract spiked to about $1,980 around the 9 a.m. ET filing time, then fell roughly 6% to about $1,857 within minutes.
Bitcoin holds near $80,000 as oil retreats and the Fed decision looms
Bitcoin steadied near $80,400 after dipping to around $79,300 during the Asian morning, leaving it little changed since midnight UTC. The DeFi index was the only CoinDesk index to gain, with Uniswap and Ethena rising even after Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom fund sold its entire directional book over the weekend, including 6,400 ether. S&P 500 futures rose about 0.3% after Friday’s selloff, while U.S. crude fell about 2% to near $101 a barrel and Brent slipped to around $110 as Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran. The Fed, which raised rates in September, decides on Wednesday, with CME’s FedWatch tool showing a 90% chance of no change and roughly an 80% chance of a hike in December. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $138 million of outflows on Friday, taking the two-day exit to $772 million. In derivatives, open interest rose 0.85% to $139.9 billion, liquidations fell 71% to $153 million, and the busiest bitcoin contract was the Oct. 28 $77,000 put.
Calpers pulls back from big tech as AI jitters deepen neocloud sell-off
Calpers, the world’s fifth-largest pension fund, is cutting its exposure to major U.S. technology companies as concerns mount over stretched valuations and the sustainability of the AI investment boom, the Financial Times reported. The fund, which manages more than $600 billion, reduced the combined number of shares it directly held in the Magnificent Seven by 26% in the first half, according to FT calculations based on regulatory filings. It is shifting toward private equity to spread its investments beyond a handful of market leaders, with deputy chief investment officer Anton Orlich telling the FT that public equity valuations look expensive and the tech giants could underperform other investments. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF is up 7% year to date, led by Apple’s 34% gain and Nvidia’s 12% rise, while Meta, Alphabet and Tesla are all down. The move adds to concerns raised by Elon Musk, who warned that financing has largely dried up for AI data center companies without substantial revenue elsewhere, after SpaceX raised $40 billion in debt to buy GPUs. CoreWeave, Cipher Digital and IREN all fell in premarket trading.
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