Welcome to Q3. It can’t be worse than Q2 — probably. The one place where investors are still putting money to work: XRP and HYPE funds, which drew inflows in June even as bitcoin and ether ETFs bled record amounts. Spot bitcoin ETFs shed $4.5 billion in June, the worst month in their history. And bitcoin’s monthly candlestick tells an even grimmer story than the raw 20% decline: a solid red brick with virtually no wicks, a technical pattern called a Marubozu, which chartists read as a warning of continued one-directional selling ahead. Analysts target $48,000–$55,000 as the eventual floor. Seasonality, at least, is on the bulls’ side — July has historically been positive for BTC ten times in fifteen years, with average gains of 19%.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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XRP and HYPE funds are the bright spots as investors flee bitcoin and ether ETFs.
XRP-linked ETFs added $59.4 million in June — a third straight month of net inflows, albeit at a slower pace — while HYPE funds notched $161 million in net inflows for the month. Both stand in sharp contrast to bitcoin ETFs, which suffered record outflows of more than $4 billion, ether ETFs losing $528.99 million, and solana ETFs shedding $786,000. The positive flows into XRP and HYPE signal potential for significant spot price appreciation, particularly if bitcoin and the broader market stabilize. HYPE has fundamental support too: its parent, decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, generated just over $80 million in fees over the past 30 days per DefiLlama — placing it third among all protocols globally, behind only Tether ($486.9 million) and Circle Internet ($184.07 million). July also offers seasonal hope. According to FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich, over the past 15 years bitcoin has ended July higher on ten occasions and lower on five, with an average gain of 19% and an average decline of 7.8%. History is no guarantee — and strong inflows into spot ETFs may be needed to lift BTC — but the setup entering Q3 is at least better on a relative basis than it was entering Q2.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs had their worst month ever in June, shedding $4.5 billion.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, the largest monthly redemption since their January 2024 launch. BlackRock’s IBIT alone shed $300 million in a single session Tuesday — its largest single-day outflow in weeks — while Fidelity’s FBTC and other smaller products also recorded sustained redemptions throughout the month. The cumulative outflow figure now stands at approximately $5 billion on a year-to-date basis, meaning the entire first half of 2024 inflow surge has effectively been unwound. Options traders have begun loading up on $50,000 strike puts — a bet that BTC could breach that level — and the gold futures ETF (GLD) is slipping into its own death cross, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day. BlackRock’s IBIT entered its own death cross in December 2025 and has since fallen 35%. The SOL/ETH ratio’s 50-day SMA is crossing above its 200-day SMA (a “golden cross”) — the one technical positive in an otherwise bleak picture, suggesting Solana may outperform Ether in the weeks ahead.
Bitcoin’s 20% June crash looks even deadlier on the charts. Here’s why.
Bitcoin fell 20% in June to under $60,000 — its worst monthly performance since June 2022 — but the monthly price chart reveals something even more concerning than the raw number. The June candlestick looks like a solid red brick with virtually no wicks: a clear sign of complete and uninterrupted bear dominance throughout the entire 30 days. Sellers never faced a serious challenge from bulls. There was no meaningful bounce above the June 1 open and no relief rally from lows. The price on June 30 was the lowest for the month. Traders call this a “Marubozu” — from the Japanese word for a shaved head — a candlestick with no shadows at either end. Most months, regardless of direction, produce at least some visible volatility because markets are inherently two-sided, and even in bad months there are usually sporadic recoveries that leave a trace. The absence of any of that in the June candle makes the bearishness stand out far beyond the raw 20% decline. The pattern on the monthly chart signals decisively bearish sentiment, consistent with analysts’ predictions of a deeper slide toward an eventual bottom in the $48,000–$55,000 range. As of Wednesday morning, BTC traded near $58,600.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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