The Senate votes today on whether to advance the Clarity Act — and the negotiations are still live. Democrats sent a counteroffer to Republicans late last night, a day after Trump agreed to about 80% of their ethics demands. Senator Lummis, who has worked on this legislation for five years, said Monday that her “tank is empty” and the bill is “as good as it’s going to get.” The cloture vote needs 60 yes votes and odds are roughly a coin flip, per HashKey Research. A yes vote could push BTC toward $88,000–$90,000 per TDX Strategies; a no vote could send it back toward $73,000. Bitcoin is down 1.18% to $76,828 this morning alongside bond yields hitting multi-decade highs and Brent crude near $108. The Fed decision follows tomorrow. Stay alert.
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L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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ETH, SOL, XRP are the ones to watch if the Clarity Act passes today.
The Senate cloture vote on the Clarity Act this afternoon is a coin toss, per HashKey Research, with full passage by year-end below 20%. But if the vote clears 60 senators, analysts say the immediate winner is not bitcoin — whose ETF infrastructure and regulatory status are already well-established — but ETH, SOL and XRP, which face more remaining regulatory uncertainty. Bitget Wallet’s Lacie Zhang says ETH is likely the strongest relative beneficiary given its role in stablecoins, DeFi and tokenized assets; XRP may react strongly though some gain is already priced in; SOL could benefit from clearer CFTC vs. SEC jurisdiction. TDX Strategies puts the upside scenario at $88,000–$90,000 for BTC if the vote passes unexpectedly, and a rejection could see BTC fall back toward $73,000. Any sustained rally would require ETH outperforming BTC, rising spot rather than futures volume, and follow-through over several sessions — not just an initial spike. The Fed rate decision follows tomorrow, which could offset any regulatory tailwind with tighter liquidity.
Democrats sent a counteroffer on the Clarity Act the night before the vote.
Senate Democrats sent a counterproposal to Republicans late Monday night — hours before the scheduled cloture vote — according to a source familiar with the situation. The move came after Republicans circulated a revised draft over the weekend that Trump had largely backed. The chief Democratic complaint is that the updated language would still block state attorneys general from suing the U.S. president directly, and that the Office of Government Ethics could issue waivers allowing senior officials to keep crypto business ties. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt said at a Monday event that the Republican side had already conceded so much that any remaining gap was “punctuation at this point.” The bill needs 60 votes for cloture. A bipartisan coalition of 17 state attorneys general has urged the Senate to reject it, as have major banking associations and the Indian Gaming Association.
Lummis says Democrats keep asking for more. “My tank is empty.”
Senator Cynthia Lummis, the lead Republican sponsor of the Clarity Act, said Monday she had run out of patience for further concessions after five years of negotiations and 114 individual policy changes made to accommodate Democratic demands. “The Democrats want more. They always want more. If we waited another month, they would want more,” she said at a Washington event. “This is as good as it’s going to get. My tank is empty.” Lummis said she was surprised that Trump agreed to a second round of ethics constraints on himself and other officials — language targeting the president’s personal crypto holdings — and acknowledged she doesn’t know whether Tuesday’s vote will clear 60. Industry lobbyists at the event were framing the odds of passage as narrow even in the most optimistic scenarios.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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