Sunday, February 10, 2019

Weekly Bulletin (Feb 10, 2019)

CoinSheet #242

Happiness comes through doors you didn't even know you left open.
— Unknown

Weekly Bulletin

Hello folks.

Last week wasn't particularly exciting.

Lots of noise, not much signal (as per usual).

Sensationalized articles were in full swing.

We now know that Facebook is buying blockchain companies, Hamas is using bitcoin to fund terrorism, investors are losing money, and Brock Pierce is trying to rebuild Mt.Gox.

YouTube

Thank you folks for subscribing to my YouTube.

As I wrote previously, I'm planning on releasing some crypto-related + not crypto-related content that you folks might like.

I will put out the first video when we're at 1,000 subscribers (only 300 away so go and subscribe).

Youtube: Click here, and then click subscribe

Happy Lunar New Year!

Thank you for the quick pamp (or was it the WallStreet bonus' ?!??).

Cya again next year.

BitTorrent ICO

Few folks have been asking me what I think about the TRON BitTorrent Token (BTT).

Probably because BTT was up something like 600% from its launch (this was as of Feb 5).

Folks also brought it up in the Telegram chat.

I'll write here what I wrote in chat:

Everything is good and well until you get dumped on.
Justin Sun has worked out a great formula for pumping shitcoins and I'm generally skeptical of any motive he might have that isn't stacking cash.
Tron doesn't "accidently" have the worlds largest crypto treasury.
I think this will soon be more evident as we start seeing supply inflation.

Stay away from these "high profile" ICO's

There are many "projects" that are supposed to launch this year.

You're going to see headlines like:

You've got to realize that these "fund managers" and folks who've invested in these ICO's are all looking for ways to get rid of this trash.

Whether to dump on hopeful retailers in a Justin Sun style marketing + listing blitz, or dump on another group that's even dumber then they are on some OTC market.

Stay away, or…

…Or don't stay away, and be part of this wonderful evolution.

Arjun Balaji@arjunblj

Interesting evolution: In 16-17 "crypto-asset" bull market, there was a flood of proposed valuation models working backwards from massive TAMs and usage metric projections. Since then, with poor usage, valuation thinking has moved to "softer" attributes like governance rights.

Hacker who stole $5 million by SIM swapping gets 10 years in prison

A college student who stole more than $5 million in cryptocurrency by hijacking the phone numbers of around 40 victims pleaded guilty and accepted a plea deal of 10 years in prison

This is only interesting because it appears this is the first person to be sentenced for this specific crime.

Source

Market Sentiment

Technicals

Bitcoin (Daily Overview)

The bounce of the 200-Week SMA is notable.

Besides that, the daily isn't particularly interesting.

The consensus among traders seems be that the 3k support will be broken.

When will it be broken? No one knows.

Bitcoin could rally to 4.5k, and then proceed to fall below 3k. Or it could fall to/below 3k right now.

I'm leaning more bearish since it seems the 50 SMA resistance held up (orange line).

Bitcoin (4h Support/Resistance Levels)

Resistance 2: ~3,630
Pivot point: ~3,520
Support 1: ~3,320
Support 2: ~3,230

Bitcoin (4h Volume)

Seeing bearish divergence on the OBV (volume isn't confirming bullish price movement).

Expecting downside.

Bitcoin (Macro Overview)

Below are the 3 most common bottom scenarios.

Option 1: Fractals analysis bottom (2,300 - 2,600)
Option 2: Fib extension bottom (1,700 - 1,900)
Option 3: Retest support of 2017 rally bottom (900 - 1,200)

As of Feb 10, 2019 my confidence level are:

A bottom between 1,700 and 2,600 = about 70%.
We've already bottomed = about 25%.
Retest 900-1,200 = About 5% chance.

Recommended Readings

Why Monetary Maximalism could fall short of expectations

The most popular argument for why that should be the case is that it already happened once – with gold.
There are two big assumptions baked into the grand narrative of monetary maximalism today. First, that the world will gravitate towards the soundest monetary-policy coin. And second, that gold-analogies are apt in describing Bitcoin.
We would argue that this is reasoning by analogy, and that the analogy is not self-evident even for many people inside crypto, let alone outside. We should steer clear of suggesting that we can use logic to determine how this will all play out.

You can read the full essay here.

Regulation: A View from Inside the Machine

Below is a link to remarks from SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce on her speech about Protecting the Public While Fostering Innovation and Entrepreneurship.

Blockchain-based networks offer a new way of coordinating human action that does not fit as neatly within our securities framework. Satoshi Nakamoto, in the white paper that introduced bitcoin to the world, envisioned a "network [that] is robust in its unstructured simplicity." Uncoordinated nodes work together toward a common end "with little coordination."[8] Other blockchain projects likewise seek to build networks that operate organically, without a central organizer. Some projects seek to facilitate various forms of authentication to replace traditional recordkeeping transactions or to allow individuals to interact without using trusted intermediaries. The objective of many of these blockchain projects is to build networks that run on diffuse contributions, rather than to create centralized entities that run networks. In the end, there may not be anyone steering the ship.

Source

The end

If you think something important happened last week and we missed it, let us know!

Continue the discussion in our Telegram group.

That's all for now.

See you later space Cowboy

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