🤔 Is bitcoin resilient — or just complacent?

Everyone's calling BTC resilient. One analyst says it might just be complacent — and oil at $200 would prove them right. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Thursday, March 26, 2026   Bitcoin has been trading in a suspiciously tight range while the world around it burns. Volatility indices are calm. Oil has surged 37% this month to $91.84, and some analysts are saying $200 isn't out of the question. The MOVE index — tracking expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries — is up 33%. Bulls are calling BTC's flatness resilience. Today's Daybook asks a harder question: what if it's just complacency? Read today's full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h Signal BTC $69,345 −1.63% Range-bound ETH $2,139 −0.50% Flat SOL $89.90 +0.03% Flat XRP $1.41 +1.78% Outperforming Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Everyone's calling bitcoin resilient. Maybe it's just complacent. Bitcoin's volatility indices are surprisingly calm even as WTI crude has surged 37% this month to $91.84, with some analysts targeting $200. Oil call options are trading at three times the price of puts — a sign of extreme bullish positioning that implies more inflation and economic shocks ahead. Meanwhile the MOVE index, tracking expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries, has spiked 33% to 98.00. The risk is that crypto's tight range isn't strength — it's a market that hasn't yet priced in what's coming. Read more → Macro   Story 2 of 3 Gold posts its worst losing streak since 1920. Bitcoin is outperforming. Gold has just ended a 10-day losing streak — the metal's longest run of consecutive declines since February 1920 — falling as much as 27% from its January peak to a low of $4,090. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has held above $70,000 throughout the same period, pushing the BTC-to-gold ratio roughly 30% higher since the Middle East conflict began. The divergence is striking: the traditional safe haven is cracking while the digital one is holding. Bitcoin ETFs absorbed approximately $2.5 billion in inflows this month as gold ETFs saw billions in outflows. Read more → On-chain   Story 3 of 3 Bhutan moves another 500 BTC to exchanges as 2026 outflows top $150 million The Royal Government of Bhutan transferred 519 BTC to exchanges on Wednesday — the latest in an accelerating series of moves that have reduced its holdings from a peak of roughly 13,000 BTC to 4,453 coins, now worth about $315 million. Total 2026 outflows from Bhutan's sovereign wallet have now crossed $150 million. The timing is notable: a nation-state systematically lightening its bitcoin position while the market is trying to hold $70,000 adds to a list of headwinds that bulls have so far managed to absorb. Read more → A message from Grayscale Introducing Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF (Ticker: GAVA), offering exposure to AVAX and potential staking rewards. Launching with a 0% management fee*, GAVA reflects our conviction in Avalanche as a highly customizable blockchain with real-world use cases across gaming, finance, and enterprise. The Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF (the "Fund") is not an investment company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and therefore is not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Why GAVA? • Staking exposure: Exposure to the native token of the Avalanche network, including its potential staking rewards1. • Exposure to growing institutional adoption: Avalanche is a category leader in blockchain-based gaming and has increasing traction among financial and entertainment enterprises like KKR and FIFA2. • Expert sponsor: Sponsored by Grayscale, the world's largest crypto-focused investment platform3 with over a decade of experience managing crypto investment products. Disclosures * Management fee at 0% for the first 3 months of trading or the first $1.0 billion of assets. After the fund reaches $1.0 billion in assets or after a 3-month waiver period, the fee will be 0.35%. Brokerage fees and other expenses may still apply. 1 Potential staking rewards are earned by the Fund and not issued directly to investors. 2 Avalanche: https://build.avax.network/integrations/kkr and FIFA.com, June 11, 2025. "FIFA Collect migrates to new FIFA Blockchain." 3 Largest crypto-focused asset manager based on AUM as of 12/31/2025. For other companies in this category, AUM is considered as of most recent public disclosure. This information must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus, which may be obtained by clicking here. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. An investment in the Fund is subject to significant risk and heightened volatility. GAVA is not suitable for an investor that cannot afford the loss of the entire investment. An investment in the Fund is not a direct investment in AVAX. This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any security in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational purposes and is subject to change. When a Fund stakes its underlying asset, it is exposed to the general risks of staking. Staking requires the token to be locked up for a required period, making it illiquid and unable to be sold or transferred during that time. The Fund remains exposed to market volatility while locked and may miss favorable selling opportunities. During unstaking, rewards may be reduced or unavailable. Staked assets also face risks such as security breaches, network failures, smart contract vulnerabilities, and validator or custodian issues, which could result in loss of assets or rewards. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the marketing agent for the Grayscale ETPs. © 2026 Grayscale. All trademarks, service marks and/or trade names (e.g., G™, GRAYSCALE®, GRAYSCALE CRYPTO SECTORS™, and GRAYSCALE INVESTMENTS®) are owned and/or registered by Grayscale. CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences