Bitcoin is down 2.57% to $83,421 this morning as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.13% — its highest since 2007 — following stronger-than-expected PMI data that reinforced expectations of more Fed rate hikes. The MOVE Index, which tracks Treasury volatility, surged 21% on Wednesday, and it was that volatility rather than yields per se that drove bitcoin from $87,200 to $83,500 in a single session. The data shows bitcoin has near-zero long-term correlation with yields, but bond market turbulence is a different story. Meanwhile Litecoin has bucked the selloff entirely, up 37% this month on booming network activity and a golden cross. And one week of AI-assisted coding just cut the cost of a quantum-safe bitcoin transaction from $320 to $66. Stay alert.
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Litecoin is up 37% this month as network activity booms
Litecoin has gained nearly 8% to $66 in 24 hours — its highest since January — and is up 37% in September, its best monthly performance since November 2024, while bitcoin is up just 6% over the same period. The Litecoin Foundation attributed the surge to on-chain activity: over $1 billion of value, representing more than 17 million LTC, moved across the network in a single 24-hour period. The chart looks constructive too — the 50- and 200-day moving averages have produced a golden cross, a long-term bullish signal, and prices have broken convincingly above the $60.60 resistance that had capped the token for months. A secondary catalyst may be the halving cycle: LTC’s fourth halving is due next July, and the token has historically bottomed out six to twelve months before that event, with prices then rallying into it.
The data proves it: bitcoin doesn’t care about rising bond yields long-term
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 15 basis points Wednesday to 5.13% — its highest since 2007 — after stronger-than-expected PMI data reinforced expectations of further Fed rate hikes. The standard narrative says rising yields are bearish for bitcoin, but the data doesn’t back that up: bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the 10-year yield is just −0.18, and the 180-day and one-year readings are even closer to zero. Bitcoin is up 191% since 2021 and hit a record $126,000 last October despite 400–500 basis points of yield increases across major economies. What actually hurt bitcoin Wednesday was a 21% surge in the MOVE Index — Treasury market volatility — which tightened financial conditions broadly, not the level of yields itself. If bond volatility stabilizes, the historical pattern suggests bitcoin can resume its rally regardless of where the 10-year sits.
A week of AI coding cut a quantum-safe bitcoin cost from $320 to $66
StarkWare opened its quantum-safe bitcoin transaction code to a public competition, and participants using AI coding tools cut the estimated GPU cost from $320 to $66 in a single week — making the underlying search process roughly five times faster, with the leading submission now checking 881 million candidate solutions per second versus 146 million for the original code. The method allows eligible bitcoin holders to move funds into quantum-resistant addresses without requiring a Bitcoin network upgrade or soft fork, which matters because a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically derive private keys from exposed public keys. At $320 per transaction the option was impractical at scale; at $66 it starts to become viable as an emergency measure. Important caveats: the $66 figure has not yet been demonstrated in an actual mined transaction, the method requires sending transactions directly to miners, and it cannot protect coins whose public keys are already exposed — the group most at risk from a quantum attack.
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