Bitcoin’s push toward $80,000 has run into a wall it can’t see yet — a classified Pentagon briefing told U.S. lawmakers that mine-clearing in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months. WTI crude is back to $95, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 8 basis points to 4.32%, and altcoins are closing red while BTC alone holds green. The bull score index has just flashed neutral for the first time since October’s record high — a potential cycle-low signal, though analysts are flagging caveats.
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What matters today
Macro
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Pentagon told Congress the Strait takes 6 months to clear. Oil is back at $95.
A classified Pentagon briefing revealed that clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months — a structural inflation warning that markets had not priced. WTI crude climbed back to ~$95, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points to 4.32%, and the UK gilt surged 18 basis points to 4.96%. Rising energy costs and tighter financial conditions are weighing on risk assets just as bitcoin’s rally was gathering steam above $79,000. Iranian gunboats fired on commercial ships in the Strait on Wednesday, and Vance’s Islamabad trip was cancelled after Iran declined to send a delegation, darkening the short-term diplomatic picture.
BTC is up 4% on the week. Every other major is flat or red. That gap matters.
Bitcoin is the only top-10 asset in positive territory over the past 24 hours, leading its peers by a wide margin on the weekly chart. Analysts warn, however, that the bid is narrow and concentrated in perpetual futures rather than spot buying — funding rates have stayed negative for 47 consecutive days, the longest such run since the FTX collapse in late 2022. That divergence raises the risk of a quick reversal if macro headwinds deepen. The constructive signal: bitcoin’s bull score index just flashed neutral for the first time since October’s record high, historically a marker of cycle lows. The BTC/gold ratio’s 50-day average is also approaching a bullish crossover above the 100-day. The 200-day moving average at $85,900 is the next major target if momentum resumes.
ETF inflows hit their strongest week in a month. Banks want to slow the GENIUS Act.
U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs logged their strongest week of inflows in a month even as the Pentagon briefing spooked bond markets, reinforcing the thesis that institutional buyers are treating macro dips as entry points. On the policy front, U.S. banking groups are pushing back on the GENIUS Act’s pace, arguing that multiple federal agencies are moving too fast on stablecoin regulation for the rules to be coherent. The Clarity Act also faces a tightening Senate calendar despite still having a path through. Both bills are material for crypto market structure — and both are now running against the clock with the FOMC meeting on April 28–29 dominating macro attention.
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