Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 disproved the Jacobian conjecture over the weekend — a math problem open since 1939 that asked whether a certain kind of function could always be reversed. The answer, it turns out, is no, and the AI found the counterexample that 87 years of human mathematicians couldn't. The result was verified by hand within a day. The bitcoin connection is real: every capability leap like this one draws more speculative capital toward AI and away from crypto. Bitcoin has spent months trading alongside chipmakers rather than on any catalyst of its own, and Fable's finding is exactly the kind of result that strengthens the case for pouring money into AI infrastructure instead. The harder question it raises — why hold a token that trades as a sidecar to the AI cycle when you can own the vehicle itself — doesn't have an easy answer.
Trump has agreed in principle to broad crypto conflict-of-interest restrictions covering himself, the vice president, and all of Congress — but Senate Democrats are still not satisfied. The sticking point is enforcement: Democrats want state attorneys general to be able to police the restrictions on federal officials; the White House insists on the U.S. attorney general, an office they see as too close to Trump. August 7 is the hard deadline before summer recess, and the bill would still need another House vote in September even if the Senate passes it. Democrats raising the possibility of inserting prediction-market language could derail it entirely.
Bitcoin has rebounded 15% from its July lows to trade above $66,000 — its highest in over a month — but Bitfinex analysts identify $68,000 as the level that decides whether the rally continues or rolls over. That zone is where investors who bought over the past five months are near breakeven, and also where the previous June rebound failed. K33 Research's Vetle Lunde calls it a "classic summer slumber": ETF outflows have eased sharply — only a third of trading days this month recorded net outflows versus 90% in June — but institutional participation has faded, CME open interest is at 2023 lows, and 30-day spot volume is running at just 62% of its annual average. The recovery, per Bitfinex, is "not yet healed."
Bitcoin climbed above $66,000 on Tuesday — a one-month high — and for the first time it is worth asking whether the buyer profile is structurally different. Institutions are in via ETFs, which just posted five straight days of inflows totaling $727 million, the longest streak since April. Long-term on-chain holders are accumulating. And a trader or group of traders has been purchasing large bull call spreads targeting $72,000 by month-end. Then overnight came a catalyst: reports that President Trump agreed to the ethics provision that has been the last major obstacle to the Clarity Act. Polymarket odds of the bill passing this year jumped 11 points to 43%. BTC broke above its 50-day moving average. The 100-day sits at $70,173. The bear market that began last October ends if bitcoin clears the 200-day at $72,800+.
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1 Lowest-fee HYPE fund in the U.S. based on management fee of 0.29%. Brokerage fees and other expenses may apply.
2 Crypto Briefing, December 26, 2025.
3 Bloomberg L.P. as of 6/X/26. Subject to change.
4 Stakingrewards.com. Historical daily average measured from 5/1/25 to 04/21/26. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This information must be preceded or accompanied by a Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF prospectus, which may be obtained by clicking here. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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Bitcoin’s rally has broad-based support as institutions, whales, and options traders pile in.
Bitcoin climbed above $66,000 on Tuesday — a one-month high — and the buyer profile underpinning the move is meaningfully different from the speculative-led rallies of the past year. Institutions are in via ETFs: spot bitcoin funds have attracted over $700 million across five consecutive days of inflows, the longest streak since April and a sharp reversal from the $7.5 billion that exited between mid-May and June. Onchain wallet data shows long-term holders — addresses with a history of holding BTC for at least six months — are snapping up coins. CryptoQuant data, cited by FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich, shows large whale wallets have been building positions over two months while medium-sized wallets sold — a divergence he describes as a constructive medium-term signal. Glassnode describes the market as “increasingly balanced, with long-term conviction providing support while speculative participation remains contained.” In options, a trader or group purchased large bull call spreads targeting $72,000 by month-end. BTC has now broken above its 50-day moving average, a widely tracked gauge of near-term trend. The next resistance sits at the 100-day average at $70,173; a sustained break above the 200-day at $72,800+ would confirm the end of the bear market that began in October 2025. The main near-term headwind is U.S. Treasury issuance: $56 billion in bill settlements expected Tuesday, $37 billion Thursday, $13 billion Friday — and heavy issuance likely continues until Labor Day, draining liquidity from the system.
Bitcoin ETFs post a fifth straight day of inflows — a first since April.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in approximately $227 million on July 20, extending their positive run to five consecutive sessions — the first such streak since late April, per SoSoValue data. Ether ETFs added around $38 million on the same day, led by BlackRock’s ETHA with roughly $34 million. The five-day run has pulled in about $727 million in total, the most sustained stretch of institutional buying since the record outflows of June. Total bitcoin ETF assets have climbed back to approximately $79 billion from a July low near $75 billion. The return of the ETF bid addresses what has been the structural missing piece through a quarter of mostly negative flows: Tagus Capital put it starkly in a note, describing the renewed institutional interest as standing in sharp contrast to the severe selling pressure and record redemptions of earlier in the summer. Still, two complications loom. First, hedge funds have sold U.S. information technology stocks in six of the last eight weeks at the fastest pace in at least a decade, with tech’s share of hedge fund market exposure falling to its lowest since February and possibly hitting a five-year low as early as next week. Broad de-risking is not the same as an AI-to-crypto rotation — it removes the risk-on backdrop. Second, the Fed meets July 28–29, and Big Tech earnings this week — Alphabet, Tesla and Intel — will show whether AI spending, the trade bitcoin has moved with all month, is still climbing or starting to plateau. The test is what the inflow streak holds through.
Clarity Act odds jump 11 points on Polymarket after reports Trump agreed to the ethics deal.
Polymarket traders sharply raised the implied odds of the Clarity Act becoming law this year — from 32% on Friday to 43% on Monday — after reports surfaced that President Trump agreed to the ethics provision that has been the final major obstacle to the bill. The move reversed a slide to a record low last week. The Clarity Act would create the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets, splitting oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. The ethics dispute has centered on how much top officials can profit from crypto while in office — a question sharpened by scrutiny of Trump’s memecoins and his family’s World Liberty Financial stake, which disclosures last month showed earned him millions. The ethics provision was discussed at a July 16 meeting between Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt. The Senate has until early August to vote before the recess. A source familiar with the matter told CoinDesk that Democrats have not yet seen the bill text, and no text has been publicly released — meaning the reports remain unverified. Bitcoin traded near $66,300 following the news, up about 3% over 24 hours, with ether and XRP adding around 4%. Traders attributed most of the rally to the rebound in AI and semiconductor stocks — Samsung and SK Hynix were both higher in Seoul — but the reported ethics breakthrough added to the risk-on tone and provided the regulatory catalyst the institutional bid has been waiting for.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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