June CPI came in at −0.4% month-on-month — well below the −0.1% consensus — and it gutted the rate-hike trade instantly. Polymarket odds of a July Fed hike plunged from 34% to 6.7%. Bitcoin rocketed to a three-week high of $65,200 and ether touched $1,895, its highest since June 3. Then Iran re-escalated, threatening to block Middle East energy exports, and Brent crude pushed above $85. The rally cooled. BTC has given back some ground to trade near $64,671 as the two forces — a soft inflation print and a hot geopolitical backdrop — push and pull in opposite directions. PPI today will add another data point. Warsh has made clear one good report doesn’t declare victory. And in a move with major implications for stablecoins: Stripe just offered $53 billion to buy PayPal.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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Bitcoin’s rally cools as investors digest the inflation data and oil clouds the outlook.
Tuesday’s June CPI print was unambiguously good: prices fell 0.4% month-on-month, versus the −0.1% consensus, gutting the rate-hike trade in one data release. Polymarket odds of a July Fed hike plunged from 34% to 6.7%. CME FedWatch now shows just a 14.4% chance of a hike. Bitcoin spiked to a three-week high of $65,200 and ether hit $1,895, its highest since June 3. But the rally is cooling on Wednesday as investors consider two complications. First, Warsh has made clear one favorable print is not enough to declare victory or trigger a rate cut — and the European Central Bank has also effectively ruled out a July cut. Second, Iran re-escalated, threatening to block Middle East energy exports now that the U.S. has resumed its Hormuz blockade, and Brent crude remains above $85. Higher oil keeps the inflation outlook uncertain even when monthly data surprises to the downside. The CoinDesk analyst puts it well: “the focus has shifted toward whether inflation can continue to cool without showing signs of a rebound.” PPI data is due later today and will add another signal. Whether bitcoin can sustainably break above $65,000 depends on whether oil stabilizes and the next data points confirm that disinflation is a trend, not a blip. HYPE rose 4% and is targeting a new record above $78. Altcoin Season on CoinMarketCap slipped to 46/100 as gains concentrated in the majors rather than the broader market. Zcash (ZEC) was a notable outperformer, up 10%+ in 24 hours.
Stripe mounts a blockbuster $53 billion bid to buy PayPal.
Stripe offered to acquire PayPal in a deal worth $53 billion, the Financial Times reported Wednesday, made in tandem with private equity firm Advent International. The offer is $60.50 per share — a 28% premium over PayPal’s Tuesday closing price of $47.37. PayPal shares surged more than 18% in pre-market trading to $56.10. The bid follows an earlier expression of interest, though PayPal has been reluctant to engage so far, per the FT. The crypto angle here is significant: both Stripe and PayPal are among the most prominent mainstream financial companies integrating stablecoins into traditional payment rails. PayPal’s stablecoin PYUSD is the eighth-largest by market cap at $185 million. Stripe’s stablecoin strategy runs deeper — the company has embedded Circle’s USDC into its payments infrastructure, is building its own mainnet called Tempo through its Bridge acquisition, and recently joined the Open USD venture alongside Mastercard, Visa and BlackRock to develop a new stablecoin that could compete with USDC. An acquisition of PayPal would combine two of the largest stablecoin-integrated payment networks, with aggregate merchant and consumer reach that dwarfs any pure-crypto competitor. If the deal proceeds it would represent the largest fintech acquisition in history and a defining moment for the mainstreaming of stablecoin-based payments — precisely the infrastructure category that RealFi’s real-world asset approach is designed to complement.
Crypto steadies as Middle East tensions counter the U.S. inflation report boost.
Bitcoin touched a three-week high of $65,200 and ether hit $1,895 — its highest since June 3 — after Tuesday’s CPI print crushed rate-hike expectations. By Wednesday morning both had pulled back as U.S.–Iran tensions over Hormuz tanker movements re-escalated, with Iran threatening to block Middle East energy exports. BTC was down 0.6% since midnight UTC, holding above $64,600, while ETH remained 5% higher over 24 hours after its brief retreat. U.S. equities stayed positive: Nasdaq 100 futures +0.53%, S&P 500 futures +0.22%. The altcoin market showed selective strength: PUMP rose 8.5% after a team and investor unlock was absorbed by buyers — a sign of robust demand at a structurally tricky moment. HYPE added 4% and is pushing toward a record above $78. LIT stalled as profit-taking set in near its all-time high of $2.76. In derivatives, BTC open interest ticked up to $17.3 billion, the 3-month basis held at 3.8%, and funding rates remained in the 0–8% annualized range across major venues — a market consolidating, not reversing. Options positioning turned more bullish: the 24-hour call/put ratio moved to 66/34 from 58/42 the prior session and the one-week delta skew held near 15% — a renewed lean toward upside. The ATM vol surface remained in contango (front end 32–33%, long end ~42.5% to mid-2027), consistent with a calm-but-constructive environment. The Binance liquidation heatmap flags $63,500 as the key level to monitor on any pullback. $357 million in 24-hour liquidations: 19% longs, 81% shorts — shorts getting squeezed, not bulls getting washed out.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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