Fed decision at 2pm ET today — 35% chance of a hike. Bond yields breaking out. Oil up 20% this month. Ionic Digital surges 26% on Nasdaq debut. Trade.xyz to cover $60M in liquidations.
The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET today, and for three reasons the outcome matters more than usual. First, markets are still pricing a 35% probability of a rate hike — an unusually high level of uncertainty so close to a decision. Citadel, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, is openly calling for an increase, arguing the move would end forward guidance as a policy tool. Second, both the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields have broken above trendlines in place since 2023, signaling that the broader upswing in interest rates could soon accelerate. Third, WTI crude oil has surged nearly 20% this month with U.S.-Iran peace talks deadlocked, keeping inflation risk alive and leaving the Fed with little room for dovish talk. A hawkish outcome could push already-elevated bond yields sharply higher, creating a headwind for risk assets including crypto. A dovish surprise, on the other hand, could spark a sharp rally. Either way, stay alert. The Fed’s Chair Kevin Warsh holds his press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Company behind AI trade that caused $60 million crypto liquidations to cover all losses.
Risk-on peace trades are back in vogue after the U.S. and Iran held fire for a second consecutive day, sending oil prices tumbling roughly 5% to around $85 a barrel for WTI. Bitcoin has reclaimed $65,000, up about 1.2% over 24 hours, while ether has surged over 3% to nearly $1,950 â outperforming BTC and hinting at a potential rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies. Solana, XRP, and other top-10 tokens posted 1â2% gains. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures ticked half a percent higher, and the Aussie dollar and euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar, reflecting broad risk-on sentiment. The diplomatic situation remains fragile: Iran signaled it would continue to halt airstrikes as long as the U.S. did the same, marking a tenuous start to what could be another peace process. Despite etherâs outperformance, BTC dominance held at 58.6%, suggesting the altcoin rally is not yet broad-based. Traders are also keeping one eye on the Fed: markets are pricing a 36.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the July 28â29 FOMC meeting, with Brent crudeâs 4.7% drop to $92.19 offering some relief on the inflation front.
Ionic Digital jumps 26% in Nasdaq debut, giving Celsius Network claimholders an exit route.
Ionic Digital (IOND), the bitcoin miner formed out of Celsius Network’s bankruptcy, surged 26% on its Nasdaq debut — the exchange’s largest direct listing since 2021. Shares opened at $50 and closed at $62.90, 19% above the $53 reference price set by Nasdaq, valuing the company at $2.8 billion. The listing gives an exit route to creditors who received Ionic stock as part of Celsius’ court-approved restructuring, with 37 million Class A shares distributed to eligible claimholders. Washington D.C.-based Ionic, which is pivoting from bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure, decommissioned mining at its Ward County, Texas, site in December and committed its 234 MW of capacity to Nscale under a 126-month lease worth $1.95 billion in contracted revenue. The company raised $400 million in June through convertible preferred shares, which converted to common stock upon listing. It holds 2,815.6 BTC worth roughly $192 million, carries no debt, and projects up to $195 million in revenue for 2026 — more than 90% from infrastructure leasing.
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