Iran strikes drove oil above $93 and crypto sharply lower. Analysts say a Fed rate hike now would be a mistake. XRP ETFs are pulling in money anyway. And the SEC is working on 24-hour U.S. trading.
Wednesday, September 2, 2026
U.S. airstrikes on Iran overnight pushed oil above $93 a barrel, reviving fears that energy-driven inflation could push the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its September 16 meeting — currently priced at a 68% probability on CME FedWatch. Bitcoin is down roughly 2% to near $76,600, ETH and SOL are off more than 3%, and XRP has dropped more than 4%. But a growing cohort of economists argue the Fed would be making a mistake: hiking rates cannot put more oil on the market, and tightening into a supply shock does lasting damage to an economy that doesn’t need it. Bitcoin, for its part, is showing relative resilience — outperforming gold, which is also lower today, while the Ichimoku cloud has flipped bearish on the hourly chart for the first time since mid-August. The Fed decision on September 16 is now the market’s central event. Stay alert.
A Fed rate hike now would be a mistake, analysts say, as bitcoin, gold and stocks all fall.
Bitcoin has pulled back to near $76,600 (−1.87%), gold is lower, and equities are falling as renewed U.S. airstrikes on Iran pushed oil futures past $93 a barrel — up 9% on the week — and stoked fears that the Federal Reserve will respond to the resulting inflation pressure with a rate hike at its September 16 meeting. The CME FedWatch tool now puts the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at 68%. A growing group of economists argues that the market is drawing the wrong conclusion. The oil price rise is an energy supply shock caused by a geopolitical conflict, not a sign of an overheating economy. WTI crude climbed from $70 at the start of July to above $90 on supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict. James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus, argued on X that monetary policy should not mechanically react to a jump in headline inflation driven by an oil shock — describing it as “a growth shock dressed up as inflation” and calling a rate hike “policy error masquerading as prudence.” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi made the same case in a July CNN interview: “Monetary policy 101 says when there is a supply shock, don’t respond.” The argument matters because higher rates cannot open shipping lanes or add oil to the market — but they can tighten credit, slow the economy and amplify the damage of the original supply shock. Bitcoin’s relative performance this morning is notable: it has held up better than gold and significantly better than Ethereum (−3.27%), Solana (−4.33%) and XRP (−4.34%). BTC’s Ichimoku cloud has flipped bearish on the hourly chart for the first time since mid-August. Liz Truss, the former UK Prime Minister who triggered a bond crisis in 2022 with sudden fiscal expansion, has warned that the global bond rout could force emergency spending cuts in the UK. The Sept. 16 Fed decision now anchors the entire market’s direction of travel.
The SEC just proposed a blockchain-era transfer agent rule and is planning for 24-hour U.S. stock trading.
The SEC issued two significant announcements Tuesday evening that together sketch the direction of travel for market structure under Chairman Paul Atkins. The first was a proposed rule to modernize the regulations governing transfer agents — firms that track the changing ownership of securities — to explicitly incorporate blockchain technology. Transfer agents have always been the plumbing of securities markets, maintaining records of who owns what. The rise of onchain transactions, which settle instantly and transparently on a public ledger, has put the traditional model under pressure. The proposed rule would allow blockchains to serve as official records of securities ownership and transactions — a significant step toward legitimizing tokenized securities at the regulatory level. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce flagged a question that is central to crypto’s interest in the rule: whether holders should continue to be required to provide physical addresses to transfer agents, or whether digital wallet addresses should suffice instead. The rule is open for 60-day public comment. Separately, the SEC confirmed the agenda for its September 17 roundtable on 24-hour trading. The panel will include NYSE, Nasdaq, State Street, Citadel Securities, Cboe, DTCC and Robinhood, among others. The crypto industry already operates around the clock; if U.S. equities move in the same direction, crypto broker-dealers may face new surveillance requirements and compliance obligations that emerge from the SEC’s process. The session will examine overnight surveillance, closing-price practices, trade clearing and settlement mechanics for a continuous system. Bullish, parent company of CoinDesk, recently acquired transfer agent Equiniti for $4.2 billion — a deal that takes on additional context given the SEC’s proposed rule modernizing the very role Equiniti performs.
XRP ETFs have attracted $170 million over 11 straight sessions. Goldman Sachs tops the institutional holder list.
U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds have recorded positive inflows for eleven consecutive trading sessions, pulling in a combined $170 million during the streak and lifting cumulative net inflows since their November launch to approximately $1.68 billion, according to SoSoValue data. Tuesday’s contribution was $14.38 million, led by Franklin Templeton’s XRP fund at $6.63 million and Grayscale at $4.72 million. The streak has persisted through a volatile stretch: XRP traded around $1.32 Wednesday morning, down from roughly $1.45 at its late-August peak but still well above the $1 level it was trading near in mid-August before the rally began. Q2 13F regulatory filings, which disclose U.S.-listed fund positions held as of June 30, show Goldman Sachs as the largest disclosed institutional holder of XRP ETFs with approximately $87.4 million in exposure, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. Jane Street followed with $16.6 million and Millennium Management with $16.2 million. The nature of those holdings matters: Goldman’s position likely reflects market-making activity, facilitation of client orders from wealth management accounts and basis trading rather than a unified directional bet on XRP — a nuance CoinDesk made the same distinction about with Goldman’s bitcoin ETF holdings in 2025. Investment advisers were by far the largest category of reported XRP ETF holders, accounting for about $120 million of the $183 million disclosed, with their holdings rising around $90 million during the quarter. For context on scale: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $2.26 billion over just six late-August sessions — more than XRP ETFs have collected since launching. CME’s share of XRP futures has also been growing: outstanding XRP futures positions outside CME fell by more than 500 million tokens over the past two weeks while CME exposure climbed about 36% as XRP rallied toward $1.40 — a structural shift toward regulated, institutional-grade market access for the token.
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