The peace trade is over. President Trump reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships through the Strait of Hormuz — closed for 136 days — and imposed a 20% fee on all other cargo moving through the waterway. Brent crude jumped 2.8% to around $85 a barrel, a second straight day of gains. The 2-year Treasury yield pushed back to 4.28% as markets priced a 40% chance of a Fed rate hike this month. Bitcoin has held near $62,600 but the macro tailwinds that drove the early July recovery have been reversed. The one event that can flip the script: June CPI, dropping this morning. Expected: headline inflation 3.8% year-on-year, core steady at 2.9%. A soft print eases the pressure. A hot one, with oil already climbing, stacks two hawkish signals ahead of the July 28–29 FOMC. And while markets wrestle with macro: prediction markets just had their biggest month ever, with over $50 billion in World Cup volume that crushed traditional sportsbooks.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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U.S.–Iran escalation weighs on bitcoin and stocks as oil climbs.
Bitcoin has fallen over the past 24 hours to around $62,600 as traders exited riskier positions following the revival of open U.S.–Iran hostilities. Brent crude is up nearly 4% in the period and reached a four-week high after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. air base in Jordan and the U.S. attacked Iranian targets for five hours in a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump then reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships through the Strait — de facto closed for 136 days — and added a 20% fee on all other cargo passing through. The move reignited the so-called Nacho trade (Not a Chance Hormuz Opens), with Polymarket odds of the strait reopening by year-end falling from 65% to 56%. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index lost 0.6%. European equities fell about 1%, U.S. index futures 0.3%. Higher oil raises near-term inflation expectations, pushes Treasury yields up, and reduces the scope for easier monetary policy — a combination that has weighed on bitcoin at every oil shock this cycle. The 2-year Treasury yield reached 4.28%, and markets now price a 36–40% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. That shifts the balance of risk for today’s June CPI release (expected: headline 3.8% year-on-year, −0.1% month-on-month; core 2.9%). A soft print reduces the rate-hike fear the Iran news just injected. A hot print, with oil already climbing, stacks two hawkish signals two weeks before the Fed convenes. Warsh is also testifying to Congress today — his tone on rates will be closely parsed. Bitcoin’s weekly chart still sits in the $59,000–$66,000 range; resistance above is at $66,000 and $68,900.
Prediction markets just crushed traditional sportsbooks in a $50 billion World Cup breakout.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup just confirmed that prediction markets have left traditional sportsbooks behind. Kalshi posted $31 billion in total notional trading volume in June — a 70%+ jump from May — with World Cup-specific volume reaching $22.42 billion. Polymarket’s international exchange set a new monthly record at $10.8 billion, while its regulated U.S. platform separately logged $3.5 billion, nearly double May’s total. Rothera, the joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group that only launched in June, processed $2 billion in its debut month and already holds a 7% U.S. market share. For comparison, U.S. legal sportsbooks are projected to handle $2.8–$4.3 billion across the tournament’s 104 matches — Kalshi’s World Cup-specific markets alone generated $7.4 billion in June before the group rounds were complete. The user growth was equally striking: Kalshi’s daily active users were 36% above their June 15 level by June 30, while DraftKings fell 36% from its tournament peak, FanDuel dropped 41% and BetMGM and Caesars each declined 32%. Kalshi and Polymarket combined for 78.5% of betting app installs across the six major platforms tracked by Apptopia — versus roughly 6% a year earlier. Female users on Kalshi grew 106% during the tournament, more than double the 54% growth among male users. Perhaps most significantly: sportsbook users increasingly tried Kalshi during the tournament, while Kalshi users’ rate of opening sportsbook apps declined. The theory that prediction markets would be a feeder for traditional sports betting has not held.
Bitcoin holds $62,600 as the Iran conflict reignites and CPI looms.
Bitcoin traded near $62,600 on Tuesday, down 0.3% over 24 hours and roughly flat on the week, holding remarkably steady given the macro deterioration underneath it. President Trump reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships through the Strait of Hormuz and imposed a 20% transit fee on all other cargo — a move that sent Brent crude as high as $85 a barrel and revived the rate-hike trade. The 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.6%. Markets now price a 40% chance of a Fed hike at the July meeting, up from the low 20s a week ago. The peace trade that drove bitcoin’s recovery from late-June lows near $58,000 is now fully unwinding. Despite the geopolitical pressure, bitcoin has not broken down: it has spent a month between $59,000 and $66,000, and the current hold near $62,600 reflects a market in equilibrium — buyers stepping in at the range floor, sellers capping at the range ceiling. Ether held near $1,783 and has outperformed on the week. Solana, XRP and Hyperliquid are all down 5% or more over seven days. The altcoin-to-bitcoin ratio on the weekly chart has stagnated after failing to break above resistance — no clear momentum for alts relative to BTC, and no sign of a directional change in the near term. The U.S. government moved $288 million in seized BTC and ETH to Coinbase Prime on Monday, a structural supply event that bears watching. June CPI data is the most important real-time input of the day. If it comes in soft, rate-hike odds fall and BTC gets relief. If it runs hot — especially with oil at a four-week high — the pressure intensifies heading into the July 28–29 FOMC.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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