Bitcoin snapped its six-day winning streak on Tuesday, and the data behind the rally was already raising doubts. The Coinbase Premium — the gap between BTC’s price on Coinbase versus Binance — has been negative for fifty straight days, the longest such streak on record. That’s a signal of persistently weak U.S. demand. Japan’s 10-year yield surged to a 30-year high of 2.85%, lifting borrowing costs in the U.S., U.K. and Germany and creating a fresh headwind. The one bright spot: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $265.69 million on Monday — the largest single-day inflow in over a month — and ether ETFs added $20.66 million. It’s an early signal. But until IBIT sustains inflows, the institutional bid remains structurally unproven.
Bitcoin’s July gains may be fleeting as U.S. demand stays weak.
Bitcoin ended its six-day winning streak — the longest since March — on Tuesday, and the gains looked fragile even before the reversal. The Coinbase Premium, which tracks the spread between BTC’s price on Coinbase versus Binance, has been negative for fifty consecutive days according to Coinglass — meaning for close to two months, BTC has been cheaper on the U.S.’s dominant retail exchange than on its globally dominant rival. The streak is the longest on record and reflects persistently weak demand from the world’s largest economy, a message echoed by eight consecutive weeks of net outflows from U.S. spot ETFs. Bitfinex analysts say that until IBIT itself flips back to sustained inflows, the structural institutional bid remains unproven. A fresh headwind arrived Tuesday morning: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield surged to a 30-year high of 2.85%, lifting borrowing costs in the U.S., U.K. and Germany in sympathy. Rising Japanese yields have preceded risk-off episodes in crypto before — most notably during the August 2024 yen carry-trade unwind — and the market is sensitive to the signal. On the macro data front, Iran fired missiles at two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil prices by more than 1% and reviving supply disruption concerns that had briefly abated. QCP Capital says the near-term backdrop remains constructive if ETF inflows continue, and a decisive reclaim of $64,000 would ease concerns about Strategy. The combined market cap of USDT and USDC has declined from $268 billion to $257 billion over two months — net capital outflow from the crypto ecosystem rather than recycling back into risk assets.
Bitcoin and ether ETFs drew inflows on Monday — the largest daily BTC haul in over a month.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $265.69 million on Monday — the largest single-day inflow in over a month and only the second positive session in three after July 2 broke a long run of outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT absorbed $209.40 million, ARKB took in $32.98 million, and Grayscale’s mini BTC fund added $42.25 million. GBTC shed $44.45 million, the only fund in the red. Ether ETFs added $20.66 million on the same day, led by BlackRock’s ETHA at $23.29 million. The daily turn has not repaired the weekly picture: spot bitcoin ETFs still lost a net $526.6 million over the shortened July 4th holiday week — an eighth consecutive week of negative flows. Total bitcoin ETF assets climbed back to $77.32 billion from a June 30 low of $70.95 billion, helped by both the price recovery and the returning bid. USDT’s market dominance rate also slipped from a four-year high of 9.35% last month to 8.54% — a signal of returning risk appetite, since falling USDT dominance typically reflects capital rotating back into risk assets rather than parking in the safe-haven stablecoin. Bitcoin traded near $63,200 as Tuesday’s session opened.
Combined spot and derivatives trading on centralized exchanges fell to $4.41T in May, the weakest month since September 2024, as RWA perpetual futures volumes bucked the trend to hit an all-time high.
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