Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility has fallen to 42% annualized — its narrowest gap with the S&P 500's 18% on record — and the traders who once made their living off its chaos have taken their risk appetite to AI equities, tokenized stocks, and prediction markets instead. The tug-of-war structure explains the compression: corporate treasury sales from Strategy and MARA keep capping rallies while flushed speculative leverage and long-term accumulation prevent the floor from giving way, leaving neither bulls nor bears with enough conviction to break the stalemate. BitMEX shut down last month, exchange volumes are down, spreads are widening, and many firms have entered what Folkvang's Mike van Rossum calls "hibernation" — not making much, not spending much. The potential catalysts are known: regulatory clarity, a macro shift that reactivates bitcoin's hedge narrative, or a new story capable of bringing speculative capital back. Until one arrives, the traders chasing 5x or 10x payoffs are finding them in Korean AI chip stocks and World Cup prediction markets — not here.
World Liberty Financial — the Trump family's crypto venture behind USD1, the fifth-largest dollar stablecoin — told CoinDesk it doesn't own or operate WorldClaw, a Hong Kong AI aggregator that sells access to 300+ models including Chinese-developed AI from Alibaba, DeepSeek, and others. The problem: WLFI won't say whether it holds equity, receives licensing fees, revenue share, or any other economic interest in WorldClaw, whose users pay for AI model access in USD1 and locked WLFI tokens. Donald Trump Jr. promoted the platform at launch, and WorldClaw's terms bar users in both the U.S. and China. The opacity fits a pattern: CoinDesk previously reported WLFI borrowed tens of millions against its own token on a protocol whose co-founder advises the company, trapping other depositors in the process.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 5.33% Monday — a 20-year high — as U.S. debt approaches $40 trillion and AI hyperscalers accelerate bond issuance, with $159 billion issued in 2026 alone, up 47% year-over-year. UK gilts are approaching 6%, French yields are at 2008 highs, and TLT hit an all-time low of $81.35. Gold has risen 10% this month despite the yield surge — suggesting investors are hedging against sovereign fiscal credibility rather than just chasing returns. Bitcoin, which shares that theoretical hedge narrative with gold, has not followed: it remains stuck just above $64,000, nine months into underperformance that is making the gap between the two narratives increasingly hard to ignore.
