Bitcoin’s bounce isn’t a bullish revival. Analysts broadly treat the $68,000–$80,000 range as distribution territory — a zone to watch and reassess, not confirmation of a trend change. Strategy added to its holdings but the price barely moved, an unusually muted reaction that underscores just how risk-averse the market has become ahead of Thursday’s CPI print and next week’s FOMC meeting. Meanwhile Circle just launched cirBTC, a 1:1 bitcoin-backed token on Ethereum, going directly at Coinbase’s cbBTC in the wrapped bitcoin market.
The bounce isn’t a bull revival. $68K–$80K is a range to watch, not a signal to buy.
Bitcoin recovered from a weekend low of $59,800 — briefly piercing below $60,000 before a short squeeze sent it back above $63,000 — but analysts are cautious about reading too much into the move. The $68,000 level represents the 200-day exponential moving average, which has consistently acted as resistance during this bear phase; $80,000 is the upper bound of the range where analysts say price could stall in a relief rally without constituting a structural trend change. The market is in a holding pattern ahead of two major catalysts: Thursday’s U.S. CPI print and next week’s FOMC meeting. Shorts lost $504 million on the weekend bounce, compressing downside pressure in the short term — but ETF flows remain the key variable. Last week’s $1.72 billion in outflows on just $18.43 billion in total volume is a notably low-conviction number compared to February’s crash, which had $46 billion in volume and far more two-sided participation.
Strategy bought more bitcoin. The price barely moved. That’s new.
Strategy disclosed another bitcoin purchase — adding to its already record-sized treasury — but BTC was little changed on the news, a notable departure from the reflexive positive reactions that Strategy announcements triggered throughout 2024 and early 2025. The muted response reflects a broader shift in market dynamics: Strategy’s purchases are now routine enough that they are fully priced in as a background bid rather than a bullish catalyst. Risk-averse investors are focused instead on Thursday’s CPI release, which will shape expectations for the FOMC meeting next week. With the Fed holding rates and markets pricing only a 30% probability of a cut before year-end, any hotter-than-expected inflation print would compress the recovery runway for risk assets further.
Circle launched cirBTC on Ethereum to challenge Coinbase in the wrapped bitcoin market.
Circle unveiled cirBTC, a token backed 1:1 by bitcoin and issued on Ethereum, enabling bitcoin holders to use their BTC in DeFi protocols — lending, borrowing, liquidity provision — without selling spot. The launch puts Circle in direct competition with Coinbase’s cbBTC and the incumbent BitGo WBTC, which lost significant market share following controversy over its custodial arrangement with Justin Sun’s entities in 2024. Circle is positioning cirBTC as the regulated, transparent alternative: reserves will be fully audited under Circle’s existing reserve attestation framework, and the token will initially launch on Ethereum before expanding to other chains. The move deepens Circle’s ambitions beyond USDC, extending its infrastructure into the broader tokenized asset space ahead of its anticipated IPO.
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L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk
Bitcoin sentiment just hit its peak bearishness of this bear market — and if history holds, that’s exactly when you should be paying closest attention. Santiment data shows bearish social commentary reached its highest level at the recent price lows, while bullish commentary peaked near the October tops. The contrarian read: the crowd is most wrong at the extremes. Crucially, the 13-session, $4.4 billion ETF outflow streak ended Thursday with a net $3.05 million inflow. One of the three ifs Standard Chartered outlined yesterday may be starting to close. Have a good weekend.
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L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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Bitcoin sentiment hit peak bearishness at the lows. Historically, that’s the signal — and ETF outflows just ended.
Santiment data shows that bearish social commentary across X, Reddit, and Telegram reached its highest level of this bear cycle precisely at the recent price lows — while bullish commentary peaked in October at the $126,000 top. The pattern is a well-documented contrarian signal: crowds are most consistently wrong at the extremes, and peak fear has historically preceded recoveries in BTC. That thesis got its first data point Thursday: the 13-session, $4.4 billion spot bitcoin ETF outflow streak ended with a net $3.05 million inflow — a rounding error in dollar terms, but symbolically significant as the first positive session in nearly three weeks. Ethereum ETFs also ended a 17-session outflow streak. Crypto is on course for its worst week since July 2024; whether this marks the turn or a pause before further weakness depends on the macro picture heading into the weekend.
JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citi are going on the blockchain offensive with a shared tokenized network.
America’s three largest banks — JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citi — are planning to launch a shared tokenized deposit network next year, a direct response to the threat of stablecoins eroding bank deposit bases. The network would allow customers to move tokenized dollars between participating institutions in real time, settling on a shared blockchain rail rather than through traditional correspondent banking. The move marks a significant escalation of the TradFi blockchain offensive: it comes the same week that Mastercard began settling transactions in USDC and PYUSD across six chains, and Stripe, Visa, and Mastercard were named as backers of a new stablecoin platform. The banks’ calculation is that a regulated, bank-issued tokenized deposit network can compete with stablecoin settlement on speed and convenience while preserving FDIC protection and the banking relationship.
Arthur Hayes dumped his ZCash holdings after the Orchard Pool vulnerability was revealed.
Arthur Hayes disclosed he exited his entire ZCash position after a vulnerability was identified in the Orchard Pool — ZEC’s primary privacy protocol — that researchers say could theoretically allow counterparty tracing under specific conditions. Hayes had built the position partly on the privacy coin thesis that drove ZEC and XMR higher earlier this month, but said the exploit changed the risk calculus entirely: “the whole point of a privacy coin is that it’s private.” ZEC fell sharply on the disclosure. Hayes separately confirmed he has also exited his HYPE position well below his publicized $150 price target, citing macro risks and AI capital rotation — an exit that drew sharp criticism from traders who had entered on the back of his bullish public commentary. Both exits in a single week put Hayes’ recent crypto advocacy in an uncomfortable light.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk
