Bitcoin’s bounce isn’t a bullish revival. Analysts broadly treat the $68,000–$80,000 range as distribution territory — a zone to watch and reassess, not confirmation of a trend change. Strategy added to its holdings but the price barely moved, an unusually muted reaction that underscores just how risk-averse the market has become ahead of Thursday’s CPI print and next week’s FOMC meeting. Meanwhile Circle just launched cirBTC, a 1:1 bitcoin-backed token on Ethereum, going directly at Coinbase’s cbBTC in the wrapped bitcoin market.
The bounce isn’t a bull revival. $68K–$80K is a range to watch, not a signal to buy.
Bitcoin recovered from a weekend low of $59,800 — briefly piercing below $60,000 before a short squeeze sent it back above $63,000 — but analysts are cautious about reading too much into the move. The $68,000 level represents the 200-day exponential moving average, which has consistently acted as resistance during this bear phase; $80,000 is the upper bound of the range where analysts say price could stall in a relief rally without constituting a structural trend change. The market is in a holding pattern ahead of two major catalysts: Thursday’s U.S. CPI print and next week’s FOMC meeting. Shorts lost $504 million on the weekend bounce, compressing downside pressure in the short term — but ETF flows remain the key variable. Last week’s $1.72 billion in outflows on just $18.43 billion in total volume is a notably low-conviction number compared to February’s crash, which had $46 billion in volume and far more two-sided participation.
Strategy bought more bitcoin. The price barely moved. That’s new.
Strategy disclosed another bitcoin purchase — adding to its already record-sized treasury — but BTC was little changed on the news, a notable departure from the reflexive positive reactions that Strategy announcements triggered throughout 2024 and early 2025. The muted response reflects a broader shift in market dynamics: Strategy’s purchases are now routine enough that they are fully priced in as a background bid rather than a bullish catalyst. Risk-averse investors are focused instead on Thursday’s CPI release, which will shape expectations for the FOMC meeting next week. With the Fed holding rates and markets pricing only a 30% probability of a cut before year-end, any hotter-than-expected inflation print would compress the recovery runway for risk assets further.
Circle launched cirBTC on Ethereum to challenge Coinbase in the wrapped bitcoin market.
Circle unveiled cirBTC, a token backed 1:1 by bitcoin and issued on Ethereum, enabling bitcoin holders to use their BTC in DeFi protocols — lending, borrowing, liquidity provision — without selling spot. The launch puts Circle in direct competition with Coinbase’s cbBTC and the incumbent BitGo WBTC, which lost significant market share following controversy over its custodial arrangement with Justin Sun’s entities in 2024. Circle is positioning cirBTC as the regulated, transparent alternative: reserves will be fully audited under Circle’s existing reserve attestation framework, and the token will initially launch on Ethereum before expanding to other chains. The move deepens Circle’s ambitions beyond USDC, extending its infrastructure into the broader tokenized asset space ahead of its anticipated IPO.
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