Bitcoin's best week in years; what drove it and what's next

Governments are engineering a new playbook to manage debt. Bitcoin bulls have a name for it. And crypto just had its second-best week since 2021. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Monday, August 24, 2026   Bitcoin is consolidating near $78,000 after its second-best weekly performance since early 2021 — a 23.6% surge triggered by the Treasury’s bond buyback expansion, a collapsing dollar and $2.62 billion of ETF inflows, the most since last October. The macro narrative has a new name: “financial repression,” the old policy playbook that governments use when their debt grows too large to manage through free markets. Keep interest rates artificially below inflation, force banks to buy government bonds, and savers are quietly wiped out over time. Bitcoin bulls — and now Ray Dalio — argue that in that environment, scarce assets that live outside the traditional system become essential. Gold is already above $4,600. The week ahead will test how much of that thesis survives contact with Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks for the first time in that role. Core PCE data also drops this week. Stay alert. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $77,711 +0.55% ETH $2,490 −0.40% SOL $88.60 −1.20% XRP $1.16 −2.30% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from RealFi Most stablecoins leave capital sitting still. RealFi is different. It connects on-chain capital to real-world markets like US Treasuries, money market funds, and private credit. Real transparency. Real impact. RealFi. RealFi is launching August 2026. Join the Testnet now at realfi.co Find out more CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Financial repression: The new buzzword driving the bitcoin price higher. Bitcoin is being bid up on a macro thesis that goes well beyond short-term price action — and it has a name that is spreading fast on financial social media: “financial repression.” The term describes what heavily indebted governments do when their debt grows too large to manage through free markets and default is politically unacceptable. Rather than cutting spending or raising taxes, they engineer an environment where interest rates are kept artificially below inflation, eroding the real value of cash and bonds over time. Savers lose wealth silently; the government gains breathing room. Two developments this month illustrate the playbook in action. In Europe, a new EU rule coming into force on January 11, 2027 will bar banks based outside the bloc from providing deposit-taking services to EU residents without a licensed branch inside the EU — a form of capital control that traps savings within the system. In the United States, the Treasury’s $4 billion bond buyback program — which doubled in scale last week — has been labeled financial repression by analysts at both Deutsche Bank and Citi, as it is designed to keep long-end yields below where free markets would set them. For bitcoin and gold, financial repression is structurally bullish: it forces savers to seek assets that preserve purchasing power outside the banking system. Ray Dalio said Monday that investors should own “a bit of bitcoin” as U.S. debt risks rise — a significant statement from the founder of Bridgewater, who spent years dismissing the asset. The bitcoin–Nasdaq divergence that began last week has also attracted attention: BTC has climbed toward $80,000 even as Nasdaq futures declined, reviving debate about whether bitcoin is finally developing into a genuine macro hedge rather than simply a high-beta tech surrogate. The week’s key catalysts are Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and the core PCE inflation release. A dovish Warsh — or a softer-than-expected PCE — could extend the rally; a hawkish surprise could interrupt it. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Crypto roars back as bitcoin posts its second-best week since early 2021. Bitcoin gained 23.6% last week, surging from around $62,000 to as high as $79,500 before settling near $77,000 — its second-best weekly performance since February 2021, exceeded only by the relief rally that followed the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023. Ether did even better, climbing 31.3% from below $1,900 to above $2,520. The trigger was structural rather than crypto-specific: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expansion of long-dated bond buybacks, which pushed yields and the dollar lower and created conditions for the breakout that a months-long consolidation had primed. The Dollar Index has now fallen to 98.9, below its 200-day moving average of 99.1 for the first time this year. Gold climbed above $4,600, gaining 15% over the past month. Spot crypto ETFs captured their strongest weekly inflows since October 2025: bitcoin ETFs drew $1.92 billion — their best week since bitcoin was near its all-time high above $126,000 — while ether ETFs added $697 million, their best week since early October. Total crypto ETF inflows reached $2.62 billion. Both BTC and ETH moved above their 200-day simple moving averages for the first time since early in the year, a technical milestone that signals improving long-term trend. Shorter-term moving averages are also beginning to turn upward, raising the prospect of a golden cross — the pattern where the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day, historically associated with sustained momentum. The debasement trade narrative — buying scarce assets to protect against fiat erosion — has returned in force, and for the first time in months bitcoin and gold are moving in tandem rather than diverging. Today, altcoins are consolidating and pulling back modestly from the week’s highs as the market digests the move and awaits its next catalyst. Read more → Finance   Story 3 of 3 Gemini strikes Apex deal to widen prediction markets reach. Gemini, the crypto platform founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, has signed a letter of intent with Apex Fintech Solutions to distribute regulated crypto prediction-market contracts through Apex’s brokerage network. Under the deal, Gemini Titan — the CFTC-licensed subsidiary that received its Designated Contract Market license in December 2025 — would become the exclusive regulated venue for crypto event contracts offered through Apex’s futures commission merchant to its brokerage customers. A futures commission merchant is a regulated firm that handles customer orders and funds for trading futures and derivatives; by routing through Apex’s FCM, retail brokerages gain access to Gemini’s prediction market infrastructure without having to build their own exchange connections. Gemini would handle both execution and clearing — the latter through another subsidiary, Gemini Olympus, which received its Derivatives Clearing Organization license from the CFTC in April. That dual-license structure — exchange plus clearing, both CFTC-regulated — gives Gemini infrastructure that competitors Kalshi and Polymarket do not yet fully match for institutional-grade brokerage distribution. The prediction market industry has grown at a pace that surprised even its optimists: monthly trading volume across leading platforms reached $24 billion by April, up from less than $5 billion in September 2025, according to Pew Research Center data. Sports, politics and cryptocurrency prices are the biggest categories. The deal builds on an existing Gemini-Apex relationship: Gemini launched commission-free stock trading for U.S. customers in July with Apex Clearing Corporation acting as custodian and clearing broker. CEO Tyler Winklevoss framed the direction plainly: “We believe that predictions are the future of markets.” In related news, Ethereum lending protocol Term Finance lost $8.5 million after an attacker accumulated enough governance tokens to pass a malicious proposal — a reminder that on-chain governance remains a persistent attack surface even as the broader market rallies. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

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Is the bear market finally over?

Bitcoin hit $79,400 overnight. $4 billion in shorts gone in two days. Analysts are split on what comes next. Have a good weekend. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Friday, August 21, 2026   Bitcoin touched $79,400 overnight — the highest since May — before pulling back to around $77,000 as markets opened Friday. That leaves $80,000 as the immediate test before ETF trading closes for the weekend. This has been bitcoin’s best week since 2023: up 18%, with $4 billion in short positions liquidated across two days. The week’s rally has produced an unexpected Friday morning question: is this how bear markets end, or is it a mechanically driven squeeze that will fade once the forced buying stops? Smart people are genuinely split. U.S. flash PMI data lands today; Jackson Hole — where central bank governors make market-moving speeches — arrives next week. When U.S. markets close, bitcoin enters thinner weekend trading with no ETF bid and Iranian oil tensions still unresolved. Stay alert, and have a good weekend. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $76,975 +7.12% ETH $2,350 +5.00% SOL $89.80 +5.10% XRP $1.18 +3.50% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from Grayscale Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (ticker: HYPG) is the lowest-fee HYPE fund in the U.S.1 Hyperliquid is emerging as critical infrastructure for onchain markets — a high-performance blockchain that processed nearly $3 trillion in derivatives volume and generated ~$800 million in revenue in 2025, with no venture capital backing.2 Lowest management fee in its category (0.29%) Over $100 million in AUM3 Potential staking rewards — HYPG seeks to stake 70%+ of its assets; HYPE staking rewards averaged ~2.2% last year.4 HYPG, an exchange traded product, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (“40 Act”), and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 40 Act registered ETFs and mutual funds. HYPG is subject to significant risk and heightened volatility. HYPG is not suitable for an investor who cannot afford the loss of the entire investment. An investment in HYPG is not a direct investment in HYPE. Learn more 1 Lowest-fee HYPE fund in the U.S. based on management fee of 0.29%. Brokerage fees and other expenses may apply. 2 Crypto Briefing, December 26, 2025. 3 Bloomberg L.P. as of 6/X/26. Subject to change. 4 Stakingrewards.com. Historical daily average measured from 5/1/25 to 04/21/26. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This information must be preceded or accompanied by a Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF prospectus, which may be obtained by clicking here. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any security in particular. Potential staking rewards are earned by the Fund. Staking rewards are not guaranteed and should not be considered an indication of Fund performance. The Fund’s ability to engage in staking is conditional and may be modified. Staking requires that the Fund lock up HYPE for the period of time required by the staking protocol, meaning the Fund cannot sell or transfer the staked HYPE, thereby making it illiquid for the period it is being staked. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Fund. © 2026 Grayscale. CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Bitcoin faces an $80,000 test as thinner weekend liquidity looms. Bitcoin entered Friday’s U.S. session trading near $77,000 after briefly reaching $79,400 overnight — the highest level since May — making $80,000 the immediate test before ETF trading closes for the weekend. Spot U.S. bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $606 million on Thursday, the most since May 1, and Friday’s session is tracking higher still. Weekly inflows are on track for the strongest since October. CoinShares’ head of research James Butterfill described $80,000 as “an important boundary” for bitcoin, adding that a decisive move through it will likely require confirmation that Federal Reserve policy is moving away from tightening — confirmation that could emerge at next week’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and other central bank governors are scheduled to speak. Before then, U.S. flash PMI readings today could move yields and the dollar, both of which matter for bitcoin’s next direction. Butterfill flagged a structural caution: “With accumulation by large holders still modest in scale, the market lacks the depth of conviction that typically underpins a durable breakout.” The rally is “primarily a macro story rather than a crypto-specific one,” he said. When U.S. markets close, bitcoin passes into thinner weekend trading without the ETF bid and more vulnerable to geopolitical developments in the Gulf. Strategy, which had been sitting on an $8 billion unrealized loss earlier this month, is now sitting on a $1.4 billion unrealized profit as BTC crossed above the company’s average purchase price. The ETHBTC ratio is also notable: the ratio is above its 50-week exponential moving average and testing a key resistance level at 0.03 — a clean break above that level would historically signal sustained ETH outperformance over bitcoin. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Analysts are split on whether bitcoin’s surge past key levels signals a new bull run. Bitcoin’s sudden move toward $80,000 this week has produced a genuine disagreement among seasoned market watchers about what it actually means. In one corner: Mati Greenspan of Quantum Economics, who said “this is generally what bottoms look like — they begin with a short squeeze, a giant green candle, start breaking above technical levels, and suddenly everyone waiting for BTC at $40,000 is rethinking their strategy.” He sees FOMO accelerating from here and put the odds of a significant pullback as “very slim.” In the other: Jason Fernandes of AdLunam, who warned against calling the end of the bear market “without sustained spot ETF inflows and clear macroeconomic rate easing.” His concern is that bitcoin could run out of steam at the $75,000–$76,000 overhead resistance. The mechanics of the rally add important context to the debate. Adam Morgan McCarthy of LO:TECH offered the sharpest read: more than half of Wednesday’s 7.1% gain landed inside a single hour on about a third of the day’s volume. Binance traded $1.26 billion of bitcoin futures in a single 60-second window — 361 times a normal minute. That is not organic demand; it is the signature of a short squeeze, where forced buying cascades. McCarthy pointed to gold as the week’s cleaner macro signal: it rallied on the Treasury doubling bond buybacks without any of the forced-buying distortion that inflated bitcoin’s price. “If you’re looking for where investors are actually hedging against currency and inflation risk this week, gold shows it, and bitcoin doesn’t,” he said. Tobias Bauer of TBV added that the funding rate on bitcoin futures has now hit exchange maximums, meaning the cost of holding a leveraged long position has become expensive — a typical signal that the crowd has positioned strongly in one direction and the trade is getting crowded. Read more → Markets   Story 3 of 3 Bitcoin, ether and solana climb as another $1 billion in shorts gets wiped out. A second consecutive wave of forced short closures swept through crypto markets in Asian trading Friday, liquidating roughly $1 billion in bearish positions out of $1.23 billion in total, across 140,416 individual traders. That follows the $3 billion wiped out on Thursday — the largest single-day short liquidation on record going back to 2021 — bringing the two-day total to more than $4 billion. The largest single position closed in Friday’s Asian session was a $25.13 million bitcoin trade on Hyperliquid. To understand what these numbers mean: a liquidation happens when a trader borrows to make a larger bet than their capital alone would cover, the market moves against them, and the exchange automatically closes the position before losses exceed the margin posted. These were traders who bet the price would fall — each forced closure required buying bitcoin to exit, which pushed prices higher and created further cascading liquidations. Bitcoin climbed to just under $75,500 overnight before pulling back to $77,000 by the time U.S. markets opened; two days ago it was trading near $64,100, a move of nearly 20% in 48 hours. The altcoin rally has been broad and in some cases has exceeded bitcoin’s gains. Ether added roughly 5% in the latest session to $2,350 and is up 24.5% on the week. Hyperliquid’s HYPE leads the majors at roughly 27% on the week, topping $73. Solana traded near $90, up 17% on the week. Dogecoin gained about 9% in the session. BNB rose 6% to $660. Tron lagged. The rally traces to Wednesday, when the U.S. Treasury doubled the size of its long-end bond buyback operations from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, easing conditions across the roughly $30 trillion Treasury market and lifting appetite for risk assets globally. Bitcoin then broke through resistance near $66,600, the level that had capped the price since early July. Bitcoin’s total market value stands at $1.5 trillion — still about 40% below the record above $126,000 set last October. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences