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Nvidia delivered exactly what the market needed. The chipmaker beat on both revenue ($96.2 billion, above $92.3 billion expected) and earnings, guided to $108 billion next quarter, and added a $12.9 billion acquisition of AI model platform Hugging Face for good measure. Its shares jumped 8% in pre-market trading, tech stocks lifted broadly, and bitcoin — which has held a 0.5-plus correlation with Nvidia all year — rose above $79,000 again. That puts it squarely against the single largest supply resistance wall in its history: nearly 8% of all bitcoin in circulation changed hands between $80,000 and $82,000, and those holders may sell as the price returns to their cost basis. The 50-week moving average sits at $81,081 — still uncleared. Expert strategy consensus: if you believe bitcoin is going higher, call spreads offer a smarter entry than buying spot right now. Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole tomorrow. Stay alert.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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Bitcoin missed $80,000. Experts say call spreads are the smarter play for the next leg higher.
Bitcoin is hovering near $79,400 — close enough to $80,000 to feel tantalizingly near, but unable to clear the level on a sustained basis. For traders who missed the initial surge from $62,000 and are now looking for an entry, industry experts are recommending a defined-risk approach rather than simply buying spot BTC at these levels. The strategy is a call spread: buy the right to purchase BTC at a given strike price, say $80,000, while simultaneously selling the right at a higher price, say $90,000. The buyer profits if BTC rises above $80,000, up to a maximum gain capped at $90,000. The maximum loss is limited to the initial premium paid — unlike buying spot, where a reversal from $79,000 back to $70,000 would produce an $9,000 per-coin loss. Jean-David Pequignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, said call spreads are an effective way to “buy the cheaper wing of a skew leading toward downside puts, capturing potential post-expiry upside while maintaining defined risk ahead of Fed and inflation catalysts.” Markus Thielken of 10x Research proposed an alternative structure: buy spot BTC and sell a September $90,000 call against it, collecting the premium as yield that simultaneously reduces downside risk. The reason for caution: while bitcoin is on track for its biggest monthly gain since 2024, September has historically been a difficult month — averaging a negative 3% return since 2013, per CoinGlass. BlackRock analyst Robert Mitchnick, citing strong bitcoin ETF inflow data and rising institutional interest, said the macro case for BTC is strengthening. The question is timing, and the options market is telling you that the next month is where the risk concentrates.
Bitcoin tests its largest supply wall at $80,000 — right where ETF holders bought in.
Bitcoin is pressing against the single largest concentration of supply in its history. According to Glassnode’s Realized Price Distribution — a metric that maps where existing bitcoin supply last changed hands — nearly 8% of all BTC in circulation was acquired between $80,000 and $82,000. Around 5% of total supply sits at $80,000 alone, the largest cluster at any individual price level. The $82,000 level holds the fourth-largest cluster; $78,000 holds the second-largest at roughly 3.7% of supply. These concentrations create resistance in a specific way: holders who purchased in this range are sitting at breakeven or slight profit as the price returns. Many will sell. The dynamic is compounded by a second factor: the average cost basis of all U.S. spot bitcoin ETF deposits also sits between $80,000 and $82,000. That means the largest cohort of institutional buyers — the ones who drove the ETF inflow records of the past two weeks — are also at their cost basis in this exact range. If ETF holders sell as they approach breakeven, the pressure compounds. For context: a similar dynamic played out between $60,000 and $63,000 earlier this year. That band held more than 6% of supply and acted as strong resistance, then flipped into support after bitcoin traded within it for weeks. The precedent suggests the $80,000–$82,000 band will either hold BTC down until enough supply is absorbed at these levels, or — if it breaks above convincingly — could become the same kind of strong support that the $60,000–$63,000 zone became. The 50-week moving average at $81,081 sits directly in the middle of this supply wall, adding technical weight to what is already the most consequential resistance zone in bitcoin’s current cycle.
Nvidia shares surge 8% on earnings beat, lifting technology stocks and bitcoin.
Nvidia delivered exactly what markets had been waiting for. The AI chipmaker reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion — beating the $92.27 billion consensus estimate — with adjusted earnings per share of $2.22 against expectations of $2.09. Third-quarter guidance came in at $108 billion, above Wall Street’s $103.9 billion forecast. The company said it expects revenue to grow approximately 70% in fiscal 2028, even as it warned that supply rather than demand will be the primary constraint through the end of that fiscal year. CEO Jensen Huang said AI agents now require 15 to 100 times more compute than conventional human-prompted interactions — a framing that significantly expands the addressable market for Nvidia’s chips beyond the already-enormous data center buildout underway. Nvidia’s shares rose 8% in pre-market trading Thursday. Separately, The Information reported that Nvidia has agreed to acquire Hugging Face — the most widely used platform for sharing and deploying open-source AI models — for $12.9 billion, a deal that would extend Nvidia’s reach from chips and hardware infrastructure into the AI software stack. Bitcoin climbed above $79,000 in response, consistent with the 0.5-plus 90-day rolling correlation it has maintained with Nvidia throughout 2025. AI infrastructure companies with bitcoin mining exposure also gained: IREN rose 5%, TeraWulf and Cipher Mining each gained around 3%. The Invesco QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, gained more than 1%. The practical question for bitcoin is whether Nvidia’s beat changes the macro picture in any durable way — or whether it simply provides a single session of positive sentiment at a moment when bitcoin faces the structural supply and options expiry headwinds described in our other stories today.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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