Bitcoin has stabilized, but the prospects for a meaningful recovery remain bleak: a $4.4 billion supply overhang is emerging as institutional demand wilts. ETFs sold off 71,600 BTC this month — the largest redemption on record — while corporate treasuries bought just 7,500. More supply is hitting the market than the biggest players are absorbing. Bitcoin is now testing its lowest levels since late 2024, with options traders paying up for downside protection. And Strategy is heading for its 11th losing month in the last 12, with MSTR down roughly 41% in June alone. Today is the last trading day of Q2.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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Bitcoin’s $4.4 billion supply overhang emerges as institutional demand wilts.
Though BTC has recently stabilized around $60,000, the prospects for a meaningful recovery remain bleak because institutional demand is falling significantly short of soaking up supply. A Glassnode chart shows bitcoin ETFs have sold off 71,600 BTC, worth over $4 billion, this month — the largest redemption on record. Meanwhile corporate treasuries, or digital asset treasury firms, have snapped up just 7,500 BTC. Add the fresh coins mined each day, and the net figure comes to around −77,000 BTC, or $4.4 billion. In other words, more supply is hitting the market than the biggest players are absorbing — big-money vehicles are actually adding to the selling pressure rather than offsetting it. Against this backdrop, Strategy announced a BTC monetization plan Monday, authorizing up to $1.25 billion in potential bitcoin sales, mainly to build a $2.55 billion U.S. dollar reserve to cover preferred dividends and interest expenses. These developments suggest any price bounce is likely to be short-lived unless flows flip positive and institutional demand returns. What looks like lopsided bullish dollar positioning in the FX market is the only factor supporting BTC right now — worth watching closely as the quarter closes today.
Bitcoin nears 2024 lows as options traders pay up for downside protection.
Bitcoin fell 1.5% Tuesday after failing to hold above $60,000 on Monday, now trading around $59,250 and looking set to challenge the weekend lows of $58,800. Ether is down 1.73% since midnight UTC at $1,580 after failing to break through $1,640. Both assets are testing critical multiyear support levels: ether has bounced from this zone twice before, in April 2025 and October 2023, while bitcoin is trading around its lowest point since late 2024. A failure to hold either level would leave both tokens without an obvious floor. The weakness stands in contrast to traditional markets, where U.S. equities have been steady — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures posted gains of 0.03% while the Dollar Index added 0.25%. DeFi tokens saw exaggerated downside, with ethena, jupiter, and ether.fi all falling between 3.3% and 7.5% as risk appetite continues to wane. On Deribit, BTC puts continue trading at a 10%-plus premium to calls across all time frames — a sign of persistent downside concerns even as volatility indexes point to relative calm, with BTC’s 30-day implied volatility gauge sitting around 44%. A handful of tokens are bucking the trend: stellar is holding gains from DTCC’s Stellar network integration news, and lighter is up 23% over the past week on similarities to the outperforming HYPE token.
Strategy heads for its 11th losing month in 12 as bitcoin weakness continues.
Strategy (MSTR) stock is set to end June around 41% lower — its worst monthly performance since 2022 — with one trading day remaining. The company is on course to mark its 11th negative month out of the last 12. Shares traded as low as nearly $80 on Friday before rallying more than 12% on Monday following the announcement of a new capital management framework, which initiates buybacks and a bitcoin monetization program while lifting the STRC dividend. MSTR reached an all-time high of $540 per share in November 2024, before a sustained decline began the following July, coinciding with the debut of its perpetual preferred security, STRC. STRC sits above the common stock in the capital structure, offering investors a lower-volatility alternative to owning MSTR shares directly — but the need for continued common stock issuance to fund STRC’s dividend obligations increased dilution concerns, contributing to the stock’s prolonged underperformance. Since STRC’s IPO in July 2025, bitcoin has fallen by almost 50%, while MSTR has declined by roughly 77% — a stark illustration of leveraged equity underperforming the underlying asset in a sustained drawdown. Bitcoin itself is on track to post its third consecutive negative quarter, down 20% in June alone.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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