Sentiment is cooling but traders aren't panicking yet

Sentiment is cooling and puts are getting pricier — but options data says traders aren't panicking yet. Trump left open more Iran strikes. And Newsom banned politician memecoins. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Monday, September 28, 2026   Bitcoin is down 1.61% to $83,402 this morning as Trump said Sunday he wouldn’t rule out more military strikes on Iran before November’s midterm elections — sending oil above $108 and pushing Treasury yields back to 5.20%, their 2007 high. The Friday rally is fully unwound. Options data tells an interesting story: bearish put demand has ticked up and calls have given back their premium, but the skew reading is barely registering compared to its historical average — meaning sentiment has cooled but traders aren’t yet pricing a crash. Bitcoin is testing the $82,813 support zone that flipped from resistance on September 21; whether it holds will determine the near-term direction. California Governor Newsom separately signed a law banning state politicians from issuing memecoins, framing it explicitly as a rebuke of Trump’s $TRUMP token. Stay alert. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $83,402 −1.61% ETH $2,685 −0.80% SOL $119.59 −3.04% XRP $1.52 −1.23% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Traders aren’t panicking yet — but crypto sentiment is cooling Bitcoin and ether have come under pressure since the rally stalled last Monday, but options market data suggests traders are not yet positioning for a deep selloff. The skew metric — which tracks the cost of downside puts relative to upside calls — has moved in favor of puts, but the reading is near the 92nd percentile of its 52-week range against a median of −4.41, meaning protection is historically cheap even after calls gave up their premium. 10x Research notes put demand has jumped over recent days but calls it a short-term hedge rather than a regime shift. Bitcoin’s implied volatility is back near cycle lows while realized volatility runs 12 points higher — some options are priced at 30 vol on a market moving at 42. The key technical level to watch is $82,813, the former resistance that flipped to support on September 21 and is now being tested. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Bitcoin and Nasdaq slide as Trump won’t rule out more Iran strikes Trump said Sunday he expected the war with Iran to end “very soon” but declined to rule out additional military strikes before November’s midterm elections, saying: “I don’t want to say that. I mean, it’s possible, but I just don’t want to say that.” Oil rose above $108 in response — pushing Treasury yields back to 5.20%, a 2007 high — while bitcoin fell 1.3% and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.7% in overnight trading. Iran’s Foreign Minister warned his country is “fully prepared” for a resumed conflict; the U.S. rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for seven days as a prelude to broader talks. PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payrolls data are all due this week and could further influence Fed rate-hike expectations. Key near-term support for bitcoin is the $83,800–$84,000 zone, with $85,000–$85,800 as immediate resistance. Read more → Policy   Story 3 of 3 Newsom bans California politicians from memecoins — and calls it the opposite of Trump California Governor Gavin Newsom signed AB 2409 on Sunday, barring the state’s public officials from issuing memecoins as part of an 11-bill anti-corruption and consumer protection package. Newsom’s office titled the announcement “THE OPPOSITE OF TRUMP”, citing Trump’s $TRUMP token — which generated $636 million in royalties for Trump Organization affiliates while nearly 989,000 buyers lost a combined $3.81 billion. The $TRUMP token currently trades at $2.03, down from a peak above $75. Other bills in the package create rules for compensating crypto scam victims and establish a legal process for seizing crypto from transnational criminal networks. Newsom, whose second and final term ends in January, is widely seen as a 2028 presidential contender, and the signing is his most direct crypto-related positioning against Trump to date. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

Why this week's profit-taking is a bullish signal

Bitcoin holders realized $2.4B in profits this week — at prior tops it was $7-10B. ETFs erased a $5.8B hole. Bond volatility hit a 6-month high — bitcoin didn't blink. Have a great weekend. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Friday, September 25, 2026   Bitcoin is up 1.27% to $84,645 this morning as markets close out a volatile week on a constructive note. XRP is the standout, up 8.04% as dollar and Treasury yield rallies stall and risk appetite returns. Bitcoin holders realized $2.4 billion in profits this week — but at prior market tops that number ran $7–10 billion per day, which Bitfinex says is a bullish signal rather than a warning. Bitcoin ETFs have now erased a $5.8 billion hole and turned net positive for the year. Bond volatility meanwhile hit its highest level since March — yet bitcoin’s implied volatility index sits near a yearly low, a notable decoupling. Bitget was hacked for $452 million overnight; the exchange says user funds are safe. Have a great weekend. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $84,645 +1.27% ETH $2,718 +2.67% SOL $121.01 +6.35% XRP $1.60 +8.04% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from Grayscale Meet ZCSH, the first and only US-listed ETP offering dedicated ZEC exposure.1 Zcash builds on Bitcoin’s foundation, adding optional privacy for transactions — shielded transactions at times have accounted for more than 50% of user transactions.2 Why ZCSH: Built by Grayscale, with nearly 10 years of operating history behind the fund. Over $900 million in AUM3 100% of management fees fund Zcash ecosystem growth4 Exposure through your brokerage account — no wallet, exchange account, or custody solution required. Invest now The Zcash ETF (“ZCSH”), an ETP, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 (“40 Act”) and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 40 Act registered ETFs and mutual funds. An investment in ZCSH is subject to a high degree of risk and heightened volatility. ZCSH is not suitable for an investor that cannot afford the loss of the entire investment. An investment in ZCSH is not a direct investment in ZEC. Must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus, click here. Please read carefully before investing in the Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for ZCSH. 1First and only US-listed ETF dedicated solely to ZEC as of August 25, 2026. 2Blockworks Analytics, Zcash: Transactions, October 6, 2024–June 28, 2026. 3As of September 18, 2026. Subject to change. ​4All ZCSH management fees support initiatives for the development and growth of the Zcash ecosystem and marketing activities in support of ZCSH, for up to 12 months following the effectiveness of the Fund’s registration statement. This commitment is a voluntary undertaking by the Sponsor, paid from the Sponsor’s own funds after receipt of the Sponsor’s fee, and is not an obligation of the Fund. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Holders are cashing out — just not like they did at prior market tops Bitcoin holders realized $2.4 billion in profits following this quarter’s 44% rally — a meaningful number, but far below the $7–10 billion per day recorded at prior market tops, which Bitfinex analysts say is a bullish rather than bearish read. ETFs absorbed more than the profit-taking: they attracted $2.84 billion over six days, the third-largest six-day inflow streak on record, and have now turned net positive for the year. Around 410,000 ETH has also left exchanges in a month while spot ether ETFs attracted $680 million over four sessions, a constructive setup heading into the weekend. The Dollar Index and Treasury yield rallies appear to have stalled, removing near-term headwinds for risk assets. A $452 million hack on Bitget overnight has had no visible contagion effect on prices. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Bitcoin ETFs have erased a $5.8 billion hole U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs now sit on nearly $800 million in net inflows for the year — a complete reversal from July 13, when they were down $5.8 billion for the year at their low point. Nearly $4 billion of the turnaround has arrived since Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced increased bond purchases in August. The six-day streak of $2.84 billion is the third-largest on record, though it trails the $4.73 billion pulled in over six days in November 2024. The year-to-date figure is still far behind 2024’s $35.2 billion and 2025’s $21.4 billion, but the directional shift from the worst outflow period in the funds’ history to net positive inside two months is the most significant data point for institutional sentiment this quarter. Read more → Markets   Story 3 of 3 Bond volatility hits a 6-month high — bitcoin and stocks don’t blink The MOVE Index — which tracks expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market — jumped from around 80 Tuesday to 104 Thursday, its highest since March, as oil prices and yields remain elevated on Middle East war uncertainty. Yet neither bitcoin nor equities are registering the concern: Volmex’s BVIV bitcoin implied volatility index sits near its year-to-date low of 37, and the VIX hovers near its yearly low of 14. The 20-day correlation between BVIV and MOVE has turned negative at −0.37 — one of its lowest readings in years — meaning that as bond market stress has risen, bitcoin’s expected volatility has moved in the opposite direction. The U.S. 10-year briefly touched 5.2% on Thursday before easing. When MOVE last traded at these levels in March, the S&P 500 was at 6,350; it has since risen to 7,704. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences