Robinhood's stock fell nearly 12% after a first-quarter earnings miss driven largely by weak crypto trading volumes — but big investors aren't running. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought roughly $39.7 million worth of HOOD shares across three funds the day after the report dropped, making it Ark's largest single-day purchase of 2026. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Overweight rating and $110 price target, pointing to early April data showing equity and options volumes trending toward some of the strongest levels of the year. The thesis: crypto softness is cyclical, prediction markets are the next growth engine via Robinhood's planned Rothera platform, and anyone betting against this one is going to be wrong for a long time.
The Senate voted unanimously to ban members and their staffs from trading on prediction markets, effective immediately — a 14-line resolution pushed by Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno that took less time to pass than most CLARITY Act committee hearings. The move follows Kalshi's suspension of politicians caught betting on their own races, a Special Forces soldier's arrest for using classified information to bet on the Maduro capture, and rising scrutiny over who exactly is making money on Polymarket's defense contracts. Spouses, notably, were not covered by the ban.
Bitcoin closed April at $76,311, ending the month unable to clear $80,000 after two failed attempts. Derivatives markets are flashing caution: futures open interest dropped 2% while volumes surged 26% — a combination analysts read as capital exiting rather than entering. Over $500 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated. The $80,000 call concentration on Deribit has created dynamics where market makers are likely to sell into any rally at that level to hedge, acting as a structural ceiling. A large put spread covering $72,000 and $65,000 is on the books. The 30-year Treasury yield hitting 5% — its highest since July 2025 — is adding macro headwind, giving capital a real alternative to risk assets heading into May.
