The most extreme BTC/dollar divergence in 4 years

BTC and the dollar are moving in near-perfect opposition. 81% of BTC’s short-term moves now track DXY. U.S. GDP at 8:30am. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Friday, April 24, 2026   Bitcoin and the dollar are moving in near-perfect opposition — and it hasn’t been this extreme in almost four years. The 90-day correlation coefficient has dropped to −0.70, with 81% of BTC’s short-term price moves now statistically tied to moves in the Dollar Index. The DXY bounced to 98.75 this week, and BTC’s push above $79,000 stalled precisely as it did. U.S. first-quarter GDP lands at 8:30am ET today — a soft read would weaken the dollar and hand bitcoin a clear path higher heading into the weekend. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $77,736 +0.10% ETH $2,314 +1.15% SOL $85.39 +0.40% XRP $1.43 +0.95% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from Grayscale Grayscale Solana Staking ETF (ticker: GSOL) is now delivering enhanced value to investors, including 100% staking. Solana staking rewards have historically averaged 6-8% a year.1 Learn more here.   Grayscale Solana Staking ETF (GSOL), an exchange traded product, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (“40 Act”), and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 40 Act registered ETFs and mutual funds. GSOL is subject to significant risk and heightened volatility. GSOL is not suitable for an investor who cannot afford to the loss of the entire investment. An investment in GSOL is not a direct investment in Solana. Learn more   Please read the prospectus carefully before investing in the Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Trust.   Potential staking rewards are earned by the Fund. The Fund’s ability to engage in staking is conditional and may be modified. Staking requires that the Fund lock up SOL for the period of time required by the staking protocol, meaning the Fund cannot sell or transfer the staked SOL, thereby making it illiquid for the period it is being staked.   1 Stakingrewards.com. The range observed is from 09/16/22 to 09/28/25 and the average over this period is 7.10%. Past performance is not indicative of future results. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Bitcoin and the dollar are in near-perfect opposition. GDP at 8:30am could break it. The 90-day correlation between BTC and the Dollar Index has fallen to −0.70 — a coefficient of determination of 0.81, meaning 81% of bitcoin’s short-term moves are now statistically explained by moves in the DXY. That reading hasn’t been this extreme since mid-2022. BTC hit $79,388 on Wednesday evening before the DXY bounced from its April 17 low of 97.63 to 98.75, capping the rally almost to the hour. Q1 GDP drops at 8:30am ET: a soft read would weaken the dollar and hand bitcoin a mechanical tailwind into the weekend. A beat, with oil still near $95 and yields elevated, would likely keep BTC range-bound below $80,000 ahead of the FOMC on April 28–29. Read more → Institutions   Story 2 of 3 Morgan Stanley just launched a reserve fund built for stablecoin issuers. Wall Street is here. Morgan Stanley Investment Management launched MSNXX — the Stablecoin Reserves Portfolio — a government money market fund holding only U.S. Treasury bills and government repo, built specifically to meet the reserve requirements expected under the GENIUS Act. The $1 NAV fund offers daily liquidity and positions Morgan Stanley as the regulated custodian of choice for stablecoin issuers once federal reserve rules are codified. The launch follows MS’s MSBT bitcoin ETP and its tokenized fund shares with BNY Mellon — three distinct crypto product moves in as many months from a firm that was among the most cautious TradFi players on digital assets as recently as 2023. Read more → Geopolitics   Story 3 of 3 The Iran war is fracturing NATO. A Pentagon memo floated suspending Spain. A memo circulating at senior levels of the Pentagon laid out options to punish NATO allies that denied the U.S. access, basing rights, and overflight clearance for the Iran campaign — including suspending Spain from the alliance and reassessing U.S. support for the UK’s Falklands claim. The diplomatic fallout adds a new dimension to the Iran war’s macro drag: not just oil prices and Hormuz disruption, but a fracturing of the Western alliance that underpins dollar reserve status. Separately, Wisconsin’s attorney general sued Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Crypto.com over prediction markets, arguing sports-event contracts constitute unlicensed gambling — the latest state-level strike against a sector that has grown sharply since 2025. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. 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