The Clarity Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee last week — a landmark moment for U.S. crypto regulation. It didn’t matter. Three macro risks are overwhelming the tailwind: Trump posted an Iran ultimatum on Truth Social Sunday night (“the clock is ticking”), sending Brent to $111 and triggering $580 million in liquidations as BTC slid from $79K to below $77K; spot bitcoin ETFs snapped a six-week inflow streak with $1 billion in net outflows for the week ended May 17; and the Fed is no longer expected to cut rates in 2026 — CME FedWatch now prices a 39% probability of a rate hike at a forward meeting.
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CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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The Clarity Act advanced. Three macro risks are overwhelming the tailwind.
The Senate Banking Committee approved the Clarity Act 15–9 last week — the most significant U.S. digital asset regulatory milestone in years, expected to unlock institutional activity in tokenization, stablecoins, and smart-contract platforms. But the near-term market is being driven by three forces pulling the other way: a Trump Iran ultimatum that triggered $580 million in liquidations overnight; U.S. spot BTC ETFs snapping a six-week inflow streak with $1 billion in net outflows for the week ended May 17; and the Fed now expected to hold — or hike — through 2026, with CME FedWatch pricing a 39% probability of a rate increase at a forward meeting. The regulatory bull case is intact. It’s just not what’s trading right now.
Trump warned Iran. BTC dropped from $79K to below $77K. $580M liquidated.
Trump posted a stark warning to Iran on Truth Social Sunday night — “the clock is ticking” — following a call with Netanyahu and with peace talks stalled. Brent crude surged to $111 per barrel, WTI hit $107, and BTC slid from near $79,000 to below $77,000 within hours, triggering $580 million in liquidations with long positions accounting for $550 million of the damage. Trump convenes the Situation Room on Tuesday to review military options if Iran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Long-term holders are still sitting tight and exchange balances remain near six-year lows — but underwater short-term holders leave BTC structurally vulnerable to further macro shocks. Support sits at $75,000–$77,000; bulls need a reclaim of $79,000–$80,000 to restore momentum.
Fed minutes, Meta’s stablecoin, and a Senate GENIUS Act deadline are all this week.
Three catalysts shape the crypto week ahead. Fed minutes drop Wednesday — with markets now pricing in no cuts and a 39% chance of a rate hike, the tone of internal FOMC deliberations could meaningfully shift that pricing. Meta’s stablecoin plans are expected to advance this week, with the company reportedly finalizing a stablecoin partner and internal rollout timeline — a development that would bring the world’s largest social platform into direct competition with Tether and Circle. And the GENIUS Act faces a Senate floor vote deadline; the bill’s fate determines whether the U.S. or offshore venues set the rules for the next generation of stablecoin infrastructure. Any one of the three could reset the macro ceiling that has capped bitcoin below $80,000 all month.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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