Buried in the pain of bitcoin’s worst month since June 2022 — down roughly 19% — is a glimmer of hope in the dollar and Treasury yield market positioning that bears watching. The US and Iran agreed Sunday to halt strikes and meet in Qatar this week; equity futures gained 0.5% on the news, but crypto barely moved. Traders have been burned by enough geopolitical relief rallies that the Qatar meeting registers as a maybe rather than a catalyst. The market that matters for bitcoin is rates. And today Europe’s MiCA deadline falls — unlicensed crypto firms must cease EU operations by July 1.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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The dollar and U.S. Treasury yield market positions may carry a glimmer of hope for bitcoin.
Bitcoin is down roughly 19% in June — on track for its worst month since June 2022 — and down 12% for Q2, a third consecutive quarterly decline, something not seen since 2022. The pace of decline is slowing: Q4 2025 was −23%, Q1 2026 −22.2%, Q2 2026 −12% so far — a meaningful deceleration. But the glimmer in the data is in rates and dollar positioning. The DXY’s near-perfect −0.90 inverse correlation with BTC has been the defining mechanical headwind of this bear market. For that to reverse, the Fed’s hawkish narrative must soften — and there are tentative signs that market positioning for further rate hikes may be reaching an extreme. Open interest in short-dollar futures has climbed toward levels that have historically preceded short squeezes, and the Iran de-escalation — the US and Iran agreed Sunday to halt strikes and meet in Qatar this week — if it results in genuine Hormuz normalization, would reduce the oil-driven inflation channel that has kept the Fed hawkish. None of this is a call to buy; it’s a call to watch. BTC at $59,800 heading into July is not a long setup. But it is a setup where the next macro move could be larger than recent sessions suggest, in either direction.
Bitcoin dips to $59,700 as Iran de-escalation lifts stocks — but not crypto.
Bitcoin traded near $59,700 Monday morning, down 0.3% on the day and 6.8% on the week, as U.S.-Iran de-escalation lifted equity futures but left digital assets unmoved. Axios reported Sunday that the two countries agreed to fully halt strikes and meet in Qatar this week to resume talks over the Strait of Hormuz and a broader end to the conflict. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.5% on the news. Crypto did not follow. The non-reaction fits the pattern of the past two weeks: bitcoin jumped on the peace deal signing June 19, then gave it back as the hawkish Fed and ETF outflows reasserted. Traders have now been burned by enough geopolitical relief rallies that the Qatar meeting registers as a maybe rather than a catalyst. Ether edged up 0.3% to $1,572; SOL added 1.5% — the one outperformer — while XRP and Dogecoin continued to slide. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded $4.06 billion in net outflows this month, the largest monthly redemption on record, exceeding the prior high of $3.56 billion in February 2025. On a year-to-date basis, net outflows total roughly $5 billion — a structural institutional exit that has no obvious near-term reversal catalyst.
Europe’s unlicensed crypto firms face wipeout as the final MiCA deadline falls.
Today is the last day. Under MiCA’s full CASP authorization regime, any firm offering crypto-asset services to EU clients must hold a license from at least one EU member state by July 1 — or wind down EU operations. Only around 230 licenses have been granted across the bloc, leaving more than 80% of registered EU crypto service providers without authorization. Binance, the world’s largest exchange by volume, told users in France, Italy, Poland, and Spain last week that it was suspending services after withdrawing its Greek application. Binance says it will pursue a French license and expects to return; Coinbase and OKX have moved quickly to poach its displaced users, with Coinbase offering a 5% transfer bonus and OKX providing up to 8% deposit matching. ESMA has made clear that operating without MiCA authorization after today exposes firms to fines of up to €5 million or 3% of annual turnover, public censure, and potential management bans. For EU retail users of unlicensed platforms, the message is equally direct: MiCA’s investor protections — asset segregation, disclosure requirements, complaint-handling — do not apply to clients of unauthorized providers. The deadline reshapes the European competitive landscape toward licensed venues and creates a structural tailwind for compliant players that will play out over the next 12–18 months.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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