Software stocks broke from bitcoin — and the divergence may be a signal. IGV rallied 36% since April 10 while BTC fell 10% over the same stretch. The 20-day correlation between the two has dropped to 0.58, its lowest since before the major rallies of late 2023 and mid-2024. Each time it got this low before, bitcoin significantly outperformed in the months that followed. Meanwhile, spot BTC ETFs just logged a record 10-session, $2.97 billion outflow streak — the longest on record — even as Wall Street ripped to new highs on the Nvidia and SoftBank AI trade.
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CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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Software stocks broke from bitcoin. This divergence has historically preceded a major BTC outperformance.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has surged 36% since April 10, reclaiming its 200-day moving average — a return to long-term uptrend driven by AI tailwinds washing away the “SaaS apocalypse” narrative that hit MSFT, ORCL, and PLTR earlier this year. Bitcoin moved in nearly the opposite direction over the same period, falling roughly 10% since May 14 while IGV gained 12% — one of the largest disconnects between the two assets in recent years. But here’s the signal: bitcoin’s 20-day rolling correlation with IGV has dropped to 0.58, its lowest reading since late 2023 and mid-2024. In both prior instances, bitcoin significantly outperformed software stocks in the months that followed the low-correlation episode.
Record $2.97B in BTC ETF outflows over 10 sessions. Wall Street hit new highs on the AI trade.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs logged their tenth consecutive day of outflows on Friday — the longest streak on record, surpassing the previous eight-session run from early 2025 — with $2.97 billion drained between May 15 and May 29 per SoSoValue. The single largest day was May 27, with $733 million exiting in 24 hours, the biggest single-day outflow since January. Total net assets across U.S. BTC ETFs fell from $104.29 billion on May 15 to $94.17 billion by Friday. ETH ETFs are running an even longer 14-session outflow streak, draining roughly $2.6 billion. All of this happened while Wall Street ripped: the MSCI All Country World Index set a record, Asian equities advanced 1.1% to an all-time high, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.6% on Nvidia’s laptop-market push, and SoftBank surged 11% on its OpenAI and Arm holdings. Oil complicated the picture, with Brent back above $93 on stalled Hormuz reopening efforts.
Cardano’s governance vote cancelled the 2026 Summit. Smaller TOKEN2049 plan approved.
The Cardano Foundation’s treasury proposal for the 2026 Cardano Summit in Singapore failed to clear the required two-thirds supermajority, finishing at 65.21% approval — 1.46 percentage points short. The ask had already been trimmed by 22% to 7.8 million ADA (~$1.83M) from an original 14.07 million ADA, with milestone-gated payments and an oversight committee added. Even public endorsements from Charles Hoskinson and Foundation CEO Frederik Gregaard couldn’t swing enough DReps. A separate EMURGO proposal for a Cardano pavilion at TOKEN2049 Singapore — requesting 3.3 million ADA (~$793K) — passed separately. The outcome is the second major Cardano governance rejection this year, following a 32.9 million ADA research proposal that also failed, and marks one of the most visible tests of the Voltaire-era governance framework.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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