Bitcoin’s momentum gauge just flashed its first positive crossover since early May — and experts say don’t chase it. The MACD turned bullish against a backdrop that is still deeply challenged: the Coinbase Premium is negative, ETF outflows are at a record, funding rates are deeply negative, and DeFi TVL just hit a 20-month low. BTC is off another 3.5% overnight below $67,000. Meanwhile, Stripe, Visa, and Mastercard are making the most consequential move yet into stablecoin infrastructure — and it’s happening whether crypto markets are up or down.
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CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
What matters today
Markets
Story 1 of 3
Bitcoin’s momentum gauge hints at recovery. Experts say: proceed with caution.
Bitcoin’s MACD crossed into positive territory for the first time since early May — a short-term momentum indicator that has historically preceded local recoveries. But analysts are urging caution rather than celebration. The Coinbase Premium remains negative, signalling that U.S. institutional spot demand is still absent. ETF outflows just set an all-time record. Funding rates on perpetual futures are at their most negative in months, and DeFi TVL has hit its lowest since October 2024 as the fallout from the Kelp hack continues to drain deposits. BTC is down 11.6% on the week and below $67,000. The MACD crossover is a necessary but not sufficient condition for recovery — it needs confirmation from spot flows and a reversal in the Coinbase Premium to carry weight with institutional traders.
Stripe, Visa, and Mastercard are backing a new stablecoin platform. It debuts soon.
Three of the world’s largest payment networks are backing a soon-to-debut stablecoin platform, with Stripe, Visa, and Mastercard all named as participants. The launch arrives as Mastercard separately announced it will begin settling transactions in USDC and PYUSD across Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Base, Arbitrum, and XRPL — enabling intraday, weekend, holiday, and on-chain settlement with Cross River, Lead Bank, CBW Bank, ARQ, and Nuvei as early adopters. Visa has simultaneously expanded its stablecoin settlement program to nine blockchains at a $7 billion annualized run rate, up 50% quarter-over-quarter. The simultaneous moves by all three networks in a single week mark the clearest signal yet that traditional payment rails are structurally integrating stablecoin settlement — irrespective of crypto spot prices.
Spot trading just hit its lowest level since November 2023. Volumes fell for a fourth straight month.
CoinDesk Research’s latest exchange analysis shows spot trading volumes have declined for four consecutive months, reaching their lowest level since November 2023. The data reflects the same AI rotation dynamic visible in ETF flows: institutional capital that previously used crypto spot markets as a high-beta tech proxy is finding more direct exposure in Nvidia, SoftBank, and Taiwan Semiconductor. Derivatives volumes have also declined but at a slower pace, suggesting active traders are still engaging directionally even as spot liquidity dries up. The volume trough, combined with the MACD recovery signal flagged in Story 1, creates a setup analysts describe as “low-conviction but potentially significant” — the last time volumes and momentum aligned this way was in November 2023, shortly before the ETF-driven rally that carried BTC to its October 2025 peak.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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