Bitcoin held near $65,000 on Monday even as AI-linked tech stocks — led by Nvidia, down 4.8% — came under pressure, while ether hit its strongest price in nearly two months. The resilience sets up a critical test: with the Federal Reserve's policy decision, key U.S. inflation data, and mega-cap tech earnings all due this week, analysts say the outcome could determine whether bitcoin finally breaks out of its months-long range or revisits June's lows. LMAX Group's Joel Kruger called the decoupling from traditional risk assets "encouraging," noting bitcoin needs to clear $67,300 and ether needs to hold above $2,000 to confirm the next leg higher. Tom Lee flagged ether's outperformance versus bitcoin — the ETH/BTC ratio hit a three-month high — as a bullish signal. Not everyone agrees: Nansen's Nicolai Sondergaard said the rebound lacks conviction, with falling futures open interest and persistent net selling pressure pointing to a potential pullback toward the mid-$50,000s rather than a sustained breakout.
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Perpetual futures — crypto's most traded product, with Bank of America estimating annual volume at roughly $90 trillion — are officially landing in regulated U.S. markets. Kalshi topped $1 billion in perps volume within a week of its June launch, and Coinbase has also received CFTC approval. But while prop trading firms and crypto exchanges race to capture demand, large Wall Street banks are holding back. Unlike prop shops that trade their own capital and can test new venues quickly, big banks face stricter capital requirements, compliance costs, and reputational risk that make them want years of data, clear regulatory treatment, and stable infrastructure before committing. The product has genuine institutional use cases — including managing weekend risk when traditional futures markets close — but thin liquidity, unsettled swap-vs-futures classification questions, and a brewing competitive fight between Kalshi and CME mean the largest banks are likely to be fast followers, not first movers.
Fanatics is making a major push into prediction markets, announcing it will acquire Water Street Labs and CX Clearinghouse from BGC Group — giving the sports merchandise giant ownership of a federally regulated exchange and clearinghouse it can use to list and settle its own contracts. The deal lets Fanatics control its own prediction market infrastructure rather than rely on third-party venues, and move faster in bringing new markets online. The two companies also plan to build joint market data products combining prediction market activity with traditional financial data. Fanatics launched its Markets platform in late 2024 and is currently available in 23 states and four U.S. territories, betting its massive sports audience can bring event-based trading to a broader consumer base — a space already heating up with Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood, and DraftKings all staking out positions.
