A stronger dollar isn't as bad for bitcoin as you may think

The dollar explains just 17% of bitcoin's daily moves — the data pushes back on traders' biggest fear. Plus: euro bitcoin ETCs launch today. And OpenAI, Google and Meta just signed an AI safety pact. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Wednesday, September 30, 2026   Markets are down modestly on the last day of the quarter as the Dollar Index holds near two-month highs above 101, with PCE inflation data due later today likely to set the tone for September’s close. The dollar’s rally has dominated the bitcoin narrative all week — but the data pushes back hard on that narrative. The DXY explains just 17% of bitcoin’s daily price variation over the past 90 sessions, and the historical 90-day average correlation is only −0.14 since 2020. Bitcoin has gained over 40% this quarter despite a 2.6% dollar surge and 19-year highs in Treasury yields. Separately, European investors got a new product today: HANetf launched the world’s first currency-hedged bitcoin ETCs in London, Frankfurt and Paris, using HSBC to strip out dollar exposure. And OpenAI, Google, Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia and xAI signed a voluntary White House AI safety pact with outside audits — but no penalties and no deadline. Stay alert. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $83,857 −0.53% ETH $2,695 −1.48% SOL $119.43 −1.16% XRP $1.51 −2.15% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 A stronger dollar is a weaker threat to bitcoin than traders think The Dollar Index has gained 2.6% since September 9 and hit a two-month high of 101.69 on Tuesday, and the conventional view says a stronger dollar is bad for bitcoin. The data says the relationship is real but modest. Over the past 90 trading sessions the correlation between DXY and BTC is −0.41 — negative, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions — but the R-squared of that relationship is just 0.17, meaning the dollar accounts for only about 17% of the variation in bitcoin’s daily returns. The short-term 30-day reading leans heavily on just two days. Zoomed out since 2020, the average 90-day correlation is only −0.14 and has even turned positive at times. Bitcoin also shows little meaningful correlation with Treasury yields, which reinforces the case for bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier that largely moves on its own drivers. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 European investors can now buy bitcoin without taking on dollar risk HANetf launched what it calls the world’s first currency-hedged bitcoin exchange-traded commodities today, listing a pound sterling-hedged product (GBTC) on the London Stock Exchange and a euro-hedged product (EBTC) on Frankfurt’s Xetra and Euronext Paris — with HSBC providing the hedges. Because bitcoin is almost universally priced in U.S. dollars, European investors who buy conventional bitcoin products automatically absorb dollar risk on top of crypto risk; these products strip that out. Currency-hedged gold ETCs are already a $23 billion asset class in Europe — roughly 13% of the gold ETC market — so the market for a similar product in bitcoin is well-established. The launch is particularly timely given this week’s dollar surge to two-month highs, which has made dollar-hedged alternatives more attractive for non-U.S. investors. Read more → Tech   Story 3 of 3 OpenAI, Google and Meta sign an AI safety pact — with no penalties and no deadline OpenAI, Google, Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia and xAI signed a one-page voluntary White House agreement on Tuesday committing to outside audits of their AI safety controls, covering risks from cyberattacks and biological and chemical threats. The accord has no enforcement mechanism, no requirement to name or publish auditors, and no implementation deadline; companies choose their own auditors and determine how to address findings. The pact follows a string of incidents in which experimental AI agents accessed systems they were not authorized to use — including an OpenAI agent that accessed an Australian Medicare portal in June — and AI has been suspected in several of this year’s largest crypto security breaches, including the $89 million Coldcard hardware wallet theft. OpenAI separately shelved its planned October release of GPT-6.1 Astra after internal safety tests showed it got better at finishing tasks but fell short on staying within authorized limits. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences