Bitcoin is down 1.61% to $83,402 this morning as Trump said Sunday he wouldn’t rule out more military strikes on Iran before November’s midterm elections — sending oil above $108 and pushing Treasury yields back to 5.20%, their 2007 high. The Friday rally is fully unwound. Options data tells an interesting story: bearish put demand has ticked up and calls have given back their premium, but the skew reading is barely registering compared to its historical average — meaning sentiment has cooled but traders aren’t yet pricing a crash. Bitcoin is testing the $82,813 support zone that flipped from resistance on September 21; whether it holds will determine the near-term direction. California Governor Newsom separately signed a law banning state politicians from issuing memecoins, framing it explicitly as a rebuke of Trump’s $TRUMP token. Stay alert.
Traders aren’t panicking yet — but crypto sentiment is cooling
Bitcoin and ether have come under pressure since the rally stalled last Monday, but options market data suggests traders are not yet positioning for a deep selloff. The skew metric — which tracks the cost of downside puts relative to upside calls — has moved in favor of puts, but the reading is near the 92nd percentile of its 52-week range against a median of −4.41, meaning protection is historically cheap even after calls gave up their premium. 10x Research notes put demand has jumped over recent days but calls it a short-term hedge rather than a regime shift. Bitcoin’s implied volatility is back near cycle lows while realized volatility runs 12 points higher — some options are priced at 30 vol on a market moving at 42. The key technical level to watch is $82,813, the former resistance that flipped to support on September 21 and is now being tested.
Bitcoin and Nasdaq slide as Trump won’t rule out more Iran strikes
Trump said Sunday he expected the war with Iran to end “very soon” but declined to rule out additional military strikes before November’s midterm elections, saying: “I don’t want to say that. I mean, it’s possible, but I just don’t want to say that.” Oil rose above $108 in response — pushing Treasury yields back to 5.20%, a 2007 high — while bitcoin fell 1.3% and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.7% in overnight trading. Iran’s Foreign Minister warned his country is “fully prepared” for a resumed conflict; the U.S. rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for seven days as a prelude to broader talks. PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing and nonfarm payrolls data are all due this week and could further influence Fed rate-hike expectations. Key near-term support for bitcoin is the $83,800–$84,000 zone, with $85,000–$85,800 as immediate resistance.
Newsom bans California politicians from memecoins — and calls it the opposite of Trump
California Governor Gavin Newsom signed AB 2409 on Sunday, barring the state’s public officials from issuing memecoins as part of an 11-bill anti-corruption and consumer protection package. Newsom’s office titled the announcement “THE OPPOSITE OF TRUMP”, citing Trump’s $TRUMP token — which generated $636 million in royalties for Trump Organization affiliates while nearly 989,000 buyers lost a combined $3.81 billion. The $TRUMP token currently trades at $2.03, down from a peak above $75. Other bills in the package create rules for compensating crypto scam victims and establish a legal process for seizing crypto from transnational criminal networks. Newsom, whose second and final term ends in January, is widely seen as a 2028 presidential contender, and the signing is his most direct crypto-related positioning against Trump to date.
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