The Nasdaq fell 2.6% Thursday after Meta dropped 7% on AI spending concerns, but crypto is holding steadier than equities — bitcoin’s implied volatility index sits below its 200-day average even as Wall Street’s VIX has topped its own. The Daybook today puts bitcoin’s volatility in context: at 38% realized, it matches Nvidia and sits eight times above the euro. HSBC launched RedCoin, its first stablecoin, on its PayMe app for more than 3.3 million users in Hong Kong. And midterm election history suggests bitcoin’s bear-market bottom may already be behind us — the July low at $57,850 arrived 125 days before the Nov. 3 vote, breaking the pattern of post-election lows seen in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Have a great weekend. Stay alert.
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2Blockworks Analytics, Zcash: Transactions, October 6, 2024–June 28, 2026.
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What matters today
Markets
Story 1 of 3
Bitcoin is as jumpy as Nvidia — and eight times more volatile than the euro
Bitcoin’s 90-day realized volatility sits at about 38%, almost exactly matching Nvidia’s 37% — making the world’s largest cryptocurrency roughly as turbulent as the world’s largest stock. Gold comes in at 23.5%, the S&P 500 at 11%, and EUR/USD — the most liquid fiat currency pair — at just 4.6%, meaning bitcoin swings about eight times more than the euro. The gap underscores how far bitcoin still has to go before it can credibly compete as a medium of exchange or currency alternative, as bitcoin maximalists argue. The direction is clear: bitcoin’s 90-day volatility averaged 58% since January 2020 and peaked at 134% in June 2020. Its calmest reading of 27.5% came in September 2025 when it was above $100,000. The BVIV implied volatility index is still below its 200-day moving average, while Wall Street’s VIX has broken above its own — a notable divergence heading into midterms.
Bitcoin has decoupled from midterm cycle bottom history
Bitcoin’s major bear-market lows in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022 all arrived shortly after U.S. midterm elections — 71, 38 and 13 days after election day respectively. This cycle looks different. Bitcoin’s 2026 low of $57,850 arrived on July 1, some 125 days before the November 3 midterms — and since then it has recovered about 40%. If the bottom is already in, that would represent a meaningful break from the historical pattern. Bitcoin and QQQ have both fallen about 6% over the past 30 days, consistent with pre-midterm softness, but bitcoin is up 26% over 90 days compared to QQQ’s 3% — suggesting the weakness is more closely tied to bitcoin’s own market cycles than to election timing. The comparison matters for positioning: prior post-midterm recoveries were sharp.
HSBC rolls out its first stablecoin to over 3 million everyday app users
HSBC launched RedCoin (RCHKD), a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin, on its PayMe app today — letting more than 3.3 million users send money to contacts and pay at over 100,000 merchants. HSBC received one of Hong Kong’s first two stablecoin issuer licenses in April alongside Anchorpoint Financial, a Standard Chartered-led venture that began rolling out its own HKDAP token in August for institutional use. RedCoin will be fully backed by high-quality liquid assets held in segregated accounts. HSBC plans to bring it to its main banking app later this year and let customers use it to subscribe to tokenized investment products, including a new share class of its existing HKD money market fund. The launch is one of the clearest examples yet of a global systemically important bank rolling stablecoin infrastructure directly into a consumer payments product.
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