U.S. CPI has dropped and the market is watching closely. Consensus expects annual inflation at 3.6% — but the focus will be on the Fed’s reaction function, not just the number. A hotter print could revive rate-hike expectations and pressure bitcoin; a cooler one could unlock the next leg higher. Bitcoin is steady above $83,000 with implied volatility rising to 40%. Altcoins are lagging, with the CoinDesk 80 down 0.6% since midnight. Separately, a crypto exchange built on Hyperliquid now has $640 million in volume since June — with more than 80% coming from S&P 500 options, not crypto. Stay alert.
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CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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Here’s how analysts see U.S. inflation influencing bitcoin
CPI lands at 8:30am ET, with consensus expecting annual inflation at 3.6% and core at 2.5%. For bitcoin, the key question isn’t the headline — it’s how the print reshapes Fed rate expectations. Bitget Research’s Ryan Lee warns a hotter-than-expected number could trigger another round of liquidations, as leverage has fallen but may not have fully cleared. Moon Pursuit Capital’s Utkarsh Ahuja says higher inflation keeps yields elevated, supports the dollar, and increases the cost of capital — all headwinds for crypto. A Bitunix analyst says a moderate core reading could ease rate expectations and improve risk appetite, while a hot print could revive pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has risen to 40%, above both its 50- and 100-day averages, signaling elevated uncertainty heading into the data.
S&P 500 options are the hottest bet on this Hyperliquid exchange
Hypercall, an options exchange built on Hyperliquid, has recorded $640 million in notional volume since June — and more than 80% has come from S&P 500 options, not crypto. Open interest stands at about $49 million, of which $47 million is in S&P index contracts. The exchange offers daily, weekly and monthly expiries around the clock, including weekends, and settles contracts in USDC against Hyperliquid’s own S&P 500 perpetual futures. Volume is concentrated in next-day expiries as traders take directional bets on overnight moves. Individual stock options on SpaceX, Nvidia, Micron and SanDisk make up more than half of all individual trades. “Most of our traders aren’t leaving Deribit,” founder Jake Sylvestre said. “They’re trading markets Deribit doesn’t list.”
Bitcoin holds above $83,000 ahead of U.S. inflation data as altcoins lag
Bitcoin spiked briefly to $84,000 in early European trading before easing back, while the CoinDesk 80 fell 0.6% since midnight and the CoinDesk 20 edged marginally higher — with close to two-thirds of CoinDesk 100 constituents in the red. Altcoin season index slipped to 55 from 60 a week ago. Some pressure eased overnight after New York Fed President John Williams said he saw no need for rate increases in 2027, though he left open the possibility of one more hike this year. Derivatives data shows traders are de-risking: open interest in bitcoin and ether fell 3.5% and 2.7% respectively alongside flat prices, indicating positions are being closed rather than marked down. The long-short taker ratio remains bearish at 52% shorts. Zcash is the only major token showing fresh capital inflow, with OI up over 4% alongside a positive cumulative volume delta and funding rates near 10%.
CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.
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