Bitcoin ETFs attracted $526.6 million on Monday — their biggest inflow day in nearly a month, entirely driven by BlackRock’s IBIT logging its largest session since October 2025. Markets are still lower this morning as South Korea’s Kospi fell another 3.7% on AI chip worries, Brent crude topped $110, and options traders on Deribit are buying puts at more than two to one over calls. The key level to hold is $80,000. In better news, JPMorgan published its first-ever long-term bitcoin return forecast today: 10% annually over the next decade, beating the bank’s projections for stocks, bonds and gold — though it still calls bitcoin a speculative asset rather than a portfolio diversifier. Stay alert.
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1First and only US-listed ETF dedicated solely to ZEC as of August 25, 2026.
2Blockworks Analytics, Zcash: Transactions, October 6, 2024–June 28, 2026.
3As of September 18, 2026. Subject to change.
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Equity weakness could damp bitcoin demand after biggest ETF inflows in a month
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs pulled in $526.6 million on Monday — their largest single-day inflow in nearly a month — with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $665.2 million while Fidelity and Grayscale recorded outflows that partially offset the total. The strong headline number masks a fragile backdrop: both Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures are lower this morning, with Coinbase and Galaxy Digital falling in pre-market, and QCP Capital analysts warned that broader equity deleveraging could transmit to crypto and potentially threaten the $80,000 support level if sustained. The 10-year Treasury yield sits around 5.13% and Brent crude is near $110 — keeping energy-driven inflation risks alive. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates next week, but prediction markets are pricing a 25 basis-point hike for November. The weekly chart shows bitcoin’s trend remains intact above its 50-week EMA with no RSI divergence — suggesting consolidation above support is more likely than a major breakdown.
Bitcoin drops as Asian chip stocks tumble and options traders seek downside protection
South Korea’s Kospi fell 3.73% to its lowest close since April 7 as SK Hynix and Samsung declined on renewed AI spending worries, pulling bitcoin lower alongside Nasdaq 100 futures. On Deribit, puts are outtrading calls by more than two to one, with the October 30 $80,000 put the most active contract; out-of-the-money puts are costing 2.5 to 4 volatility points more than equivalent calls across expiries, a bearish skew showing traders hedging downside even as open interest is concentrated in the $90,000–$100,000 calls for the end of the month. Total crypto liquidations over 24 hours came to $155.1 million, down 55% from the prior day, with longs comprising about 69% of the total. DeFi led the losses with the sector index down 1.2%, while altcoin losses were broadly in line with bitcoin.
JPMorgan sees 10% annual bitcoin returns, topping stocks, bonds and gold over next decade
JPMorgan published its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report today, including for the first time ever a bitcoin return forecast: a base case of 10% annualized over 10 years, with a bear case of −9.7% and a bull case of 17%. The 10% base case beats JPMorgan’s projections for U.S. large-cap equities (7.5%), small-cap equities (7.7%), bonds (5.6–6.6%) and gold (5.5%). The bank maintained a cautious tone, describing bitcoin as a speculative asset whose volatility and unstable correlations remain an obstacle to its widespread inclusion in portfolios — and declining to make the case for it as a diversifier. Portfolio managers Sheena Shah and Dennis Cristallo wrote that bitcoin lacks a strategic portfolio role beyond serving as a bet on fiat currency expansion or future blockchain asset trading. The report is nonetheless a landmark: Jamie Dimon’s bank, which called bitcoin a fraud in 2017, now puts a formal decade-long return estimate on it.
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