Bitcoin is heading into Election Day above its 200-day average, breaking a midterm pattern that goes back to 2014. Plus: CoinDesk’s key races to watch, and North Korea denies the Binance hack.
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Bitcoin has gone into each of the last three U.S. midterm elections licking its wounds, and this time is different. In 2014, 2018 and 2022 it traded below its 200-day average on Election Day, by about 35%, 9% and 22%, in bear-market years consistent with the four-year halving cycle. This time bitcoin is trading near $76,990, about 5.2% above its 200-day average of roughly $73,169, because this year’s bear market was shallow and front-loaded, with much of the drop in January and February. History also shows bitcoin rallying significantly in the year after midterms, but trading choppily in the short run: DWF Labs’ Martin Lee says the first few months after a midterm have historically been choppy to slightly bearish, though bitcoin has been higher 12 months later every time, and he expects near-term volatility, especially if the war escalates and the AI trade keeps weighing on risk assets. The outcome of the election itself could also steer the near-term trend, along with ETF flows and Friday’s U.S. jobs report. Stay alert.
Both chambers of the U.S. Congress are on the ballot this week, and while crypto isn’t a major election issue, CoinDesk’s policy team notes that who takes office in January will shape the industry’s legislation and regulation. The article reports that Democrats are expected to flip the House of Representatives, while the Senate is a tossup: Republicans currently hold 53 seats and Democrats 45, with two independents who caucus with Democrats, and Democrats would need to flip four seats to take control. It lists the seven Senate races the Cook Political Report rates as tossups, in Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, Michigan, Texas, Iowa and Maine, along with each race’s polling average and prediction-market odds, and cautions that polls and prediction markets measure different things, noting that prediction markets missed last week’s Brazil election. On the House side, it flags bellwether districts and races involving lawmakers who have been central to crypto legislation, including Arkansas Rep. French Hill, who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, and Wisconsin Rep. Bryan Steil, who chairs its digital assets subcommittee. Crypto-industry political action committees, including Fairshake and the Digital Freedom Fund, have spent in several of these races.
Bitcoin steadies after dip to $76,300 as ETF outflows and midterm elections weigh on crypto
Bitcoin edged up 0.2% to around $76,900 since midnight UTC after dipping to around $76,300 in the European morning, while ether gained 0.6% and the memecoin index lost 0.8%. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost $399 million on Monday, their second straight day of outflows, according to Farside Investors, with BlackRock’s IBIT shedding $405 million, its largest daily outflow since June. Binance customers have withdrawn a net $4.72 billion since the exchange reopened on Sunday, and new attacks hit crypto, including Brazil’s Mercado Bitcoin, which saw about $40 million drained from hot wallets. Nasdaq futures rose 0.3% and Brent crude gained 1.3% to around $106 as U.S. voters headed to the polls, with AMD reporting after the close and the jobs report due Friday. In derivatives, crypto futures trading volume gained 51% to $168.1 billion while open interest fell 1.63% to $134.9 billion, which points to trading rather than positional betting, and liquidations jumped 171% to $382.6 million. Implied volatility on the nearest-dated bitcoin options rose to about 51% from about 43.5% yesterday, and the most traded bitcoin option was the Nov. 7 call at the $78,000 strike.
North Korea denies role in $6.4 billion Binance hack after FBI points to TraderTraitor
Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, denied U.S. accusations that her country is behind the $6.4 billion Binance hack, calling the FBI’s claims a political attack, according to a statement published by state news agency KCNA. She accused Washington of blaming North Korea whenever a major cybercrime occurs and also challenged the attribution of the $1.5 billion Bybit hack in February 2025. Her denial comes days after the FBI attributed the Oct. 29 theft to TraderTraitor, a North Korean hacking operation, and urged exchanges and blockchain services to block transactions involving the wallet addresses it identified; the agency has not publicly released its full forensic findings. Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic rejected the denial, saying its on-chain evidence supports the FBI’s attribution, and said $2.85 billion of the stolen funds has been frozen or seized. AMLBot’s Vasily Vidmanov noted that on-chain analysis can link wallets to one actor but can’t prove nationality or state sponsorship, while adding that the evidence supporting the North Korea attribution is cumulative and goes beyond speculation. North Korea has repeatedly denied involvement in major cyberattacks. CoinDesk has contacted the FBI, Binance and TRM Labs for comment on Kim’s statement.
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